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????獨立分析師與華爾街專業分析師都在跟蹤蘋果公司（Apple）的表現，而這兩者的最大區別在于，獨立分析師們更重視預測的準確性。 ????恕我直言，專業人士看來相當保守，總是擔心脫離主流、標新立異。（請看鏈接1,2,3中的例子。） ????本周末就是蘋果公布2012年第二財季財報的時間了。所以，希望得到消息靈通人士指點或提前了解蘋果財報情況的投資者們最好仔細聽聽Asymco網站的賀拉斯?德迪歐的意見，因為他是最好的獨立分析師之一。他對蘋果的預測不僅經常勝過專業分析師，而且還會清楚而詳細的解釋自己得出這些預測數字的根據。 ????上周三，德迪歐在個人網站Asymco.com上公布了對蘋果2012年第二財季的預測，同時還在《關鍵路徑》（The Critical Path）里詳細討論了預測情況。《關鍵路徑》是德迪歐發布在丹?本杰明的5by5 Network上的播客，每周更新。 ????德迪歐表示，對iPhone銷量的預測相對比較明了。iPhone在過去幾年一直保持著100%的年增長率。根據對蘋果資本開支計劃的分析，以及對手機市場的深入理解【德迪歐曾在諾基亞（Nokia）工作過八年】，德迪歐預測，iPhone在2012年銷量有望再度翻番。 ????至于iPad，德迪歐認為，其銷量預測要困難得多。雖然當前的平板電腦市場完全是蘋果在兩年前一手打造的，而蘋果現在還繼續把持著霸主地位，但這一市場的年增長率已達到150%。依據全新iPad在首周末的銷售情況，德迪歐目前認為這一瘋狂增速在今年仍可能會得到延續。 ????對比第一代和第三代iPad的首發情況，德迪歐指出，后者銷量是前者的28倍。不過，全新iPad的首發國家數量要多很多，如果剔除這一因素，這一數字則只有大約3倍。 ????德迪歐預測，iPad在2012年第二財季銷量有望達到1,220萬部。這一數字比華爾街的平均預測高出120萬部，不過這還不是最為大膽的預測。上周，花旗集團（Citigroup）的理查德?加德勒和投資銀行Evercore的羅伯特?希拉一致預測，iPad在第二財季銷量或將達到1,300萬部。 ????譯者：項航 |
????The chief difference between the independent analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) and their counterparts on Wall Street is that the independents put a premium on being right. ????The professionals, with all due respect, seem to care more about not over-promising or straying too far from the consensus. (See here, here and here, for example.) ????So investors who want informed guidance about what Apple is likely to announce when it reports its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2012, which ends next week, would do well to listen closely to Asymco's Horace Dediu, one of the best of the independents. Not only do his Apple forecasts regularly beat the professionals', but he explains how he gets his numbers clearly and in great detail. ????On Wednesday, Dediu published his Q2 2012 estimates on Asymco.com and discussed them at some length on The Critical Path, his weekly podcast on Dan Benjamin's 5by5 Network. ????Predicting how many iPhones Apple will sell, Dediu says, is relatively straightforward. Sales have been growing 100% per year, and based on his analysis of Apple's capital spending plans and his deep knowledge of the mobile phone market (he worked for Nokia for eight years), they seem poised to do it again this year. ????Predicting iPad sales is far more difficult, he explains, because contemporary tablet computers are a market that Apple created out of whole cloth two years ago. But that market -- which Apple continues to dominate -- has been growing at the rate of more than 150% per year, and based on first weekend sales of the new iPad, Dediu now believes that rate may be sustainable. ????The difference between the launch performance of the first iPad and the third, he points out, is a factor 28. Adjusted for the number of countries where each device was launched, that boils down to roughly 3 to 1. ????Dediu is calling for Q2 iPad sales of 12.2 million. That's more than 1.2 million units higher than Wall Street's current consensus, but it's hardly the biggest estimate out there. This week, Citigroup's Richard Gardner and Evercore's Robert Cihra both issued notes predicting Q2 iPad sales of 13 million. |
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