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專欄 - Geoff Colvin

百事女掌門面臨職業生涯最大挑戰

Geoff Colvin 2012年02月16日

杰奧夫·科爾文(Geoff Colvin)為《財富》雜志高級編輯、專欄作家。美國在管理與領導力、全球化、股東價值創造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的評論員之一。擁有紐約大學斯特恩商學院MBA學位,哈佛大學經濟學榮譽學位。
現任百事公司首席執行官盧英德已經多次未能實現既定的盈利目標。投資者對此難以接受。未來數月,她的表現如何將變得至關重要。

????這正是投資者害怕出現的局面。盧英德大膽改變了百事公司的戰略,除了繼續發展如激浪(Mountain Dew)功能飲料和菲多利(Fritos)玉米片等休閑品類產品之外,還重點發展了桂格(Quaker)燕麥片等營養健康型產品。這一新戰略很有遠見,顯然也適應當今社會需求的變化。但問題在于,健康類產品的利潤率卻比不上碳酸飲料產品。

????目前,盧英德面臨的挑戰是要向投資者證明,她在執行新戰略的同時,也會繼續推進公司最賺錢的傳統業務。她對投資者作了一次重要報告,宣稱今年將在廣告宣傳和市場營銷方面追加5-6億美元投資,大部分資金將投向高利潤率的飲料和休閑食品業務。她承認,公司以前在營銷方面投入不足,近來確實表現不佳。她表示,將采取措施加大市場營銷的力度。她還將大幅削減成本,其中包括解聘8,700名雇員。這一次,她并未像以往那樣拋出雄心勃勃的盈利目標;相反,她預計今年的利潤將減少5%。毫無雄心壯志可言。

????投資者們已按捺不住,要求百事公司要么出售旗下的休閑食品業務,要么讓盧英德下臺,或者起碼宣布一位合適的繼任者接替她。關于此事,盧英德在報告中只字未提,反而又提出了一項需要兩年時間才能見效的新方案,稱該方案已獲得董事會支持。但如果該方案在今年年底前未能明顯見效,董事會可能將不再繼續提供支持。因此,未來數月對盧英德來說可以用“不成功,則成仁”來形容。

????公司領導人面臨的考驗各有不同,但在某些方面也有相似之處。首席執行官承擔著一項幾乎不可能完成的任務,需要應付各種彼此沖突的需求,有時候會出現失誤,打破平衡,盧英德即是如此。她在轉換公司戰略重點時,沒有同時鞏固有利可圖的傳統業務。公司的首席執行官們還會因行動遲緩而陷入麻煩,盧英德本人也承認,的確存在這方面的問題。

????盧英德告訴投資者:“我們本應該提前加大對于整體品牌、尤其是對北美飲料業務的支持。”她還說:“我同樣也認為,我的某些人事調整決策本應該來得更早一些。”直到去年9月,她才對公司飲料業務美洲區主管進行了降職處理。

????盧英德的新方案看起來比較合理,盡管公司利潤預期相當悲觀,但投資者似乎愿意再做一次嘗試。現在看來,盧英德別無選擇,必須在動蕩的經濟環境中推行新方案,戰勝強大而無情的競爭對手。形勢依然嚴峻。

????譯者:李玫曉/汪皓

????That's exactly what investors fear is happening. Nooyi has boldly changed Pepsi's strategy to emphasize nutritious, "good-for-you" products like Quaker oatmeal in addition to its "fun-for-you" (read: "bad-for-you") products like Mountain Dew and Fritos. The new strategy is visionary and clearly in harmony with societal changes. The trouble is that good-for-you products aren't nearly as profitable as branded sugar-water.

????Nooyi's challenge now is to show that while she isn't backing off from her strategy, she hasn't forgotten how Pepsi makes money. At a major presentation to investors, she announced that the company this year will spend an additional $500 million to $600 million on advertising and marketing, mostly for high-profit drinks and snack foods. She admitted that Pepsi marketing, besides being underfunded, hasn't been all that good lately and said she's taking steps to make it better. She'll cut costs significantly, partly by laying off 8,700 employees. And instead of announcing an over-ambitious profit goal, as she has often done, she said profits would actually fall 5% this year. Nothing ambitious about that.

????Irate investors have been calling for Pepsi to sell off its snack food business or for Nooyi to step down, or at least announce a likely successor. She did none of that at the presentation. Instead, by outlining a plan that will take two years to pay off, she showed that she has the board's support. But if that plan doesn't show clear signs of working before year-end, the board's support could evaporate. That's why the next several months are make-or-break for her.

????All leadership crucibles are different, but in some ways many of them are similar. CEOs are always in the impossible position of serving conflicting demands, and sometimes they get the balance wrong, as Nooyi has done in shifting to a new strategy without sufficiently maintaining a lucrative traditional business. CEOs also get into trouble by acting too slowly, and Nooyi acknowledged she had done that.

????"I wish we had stepped up our overall brand support, especially in North American beverages, earlier," she told investors. She added, "I also think some of the people moves that I made perhaps could have been made a bit earlier." She demoted the head of PepsiCo Beverages Americas only last September.

????Nooyi's plan looks plausible, and investors seem willing to give it a chance; they pushed the stock down only incrementally despite the surprisingly downbeat profit forecast. Now she absolutely must execute the plan against strong and merciless competitors in a volatile economic environment. The heat is emphatically still on.

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