|
????惠特尼表示，根據當前草案，沃爾克法則“將徹底改變游戲規則”。比如，除了禁止自營交易，銀行也不能再持有證券，以滿足客戶可能購買的不時之需；這個過程必須是客戶先表明購買意愿。“我不能事先準備好牛奶，都放在牛奶盒里。得等顧客下單后，我才能出去著手物色奶牛，”惠特尼稱。這“會極大地放緩業務速度”。 ????其他新條例亦如此，特別是監管機構將要實施的、更高的資本金要求。多德-弗蘭克法案催生的全新監管機構效果如何，目前仍未可知。美國金融穩定監管委員會（The Financial Stability Oversight Council）剛剛起步。美國消費者金融保護局（Consumer Financial Protection Bureau）的局長人選尚空缺。這些機構以及數百條需起草的新條例，將收縮華爾街的觸及范圍，放緩其業務速度。這就是監管改革的目的。 ????在這樣的環境里，華爾街的商業模式是什么？人們不斷聽到的字眼是“回到未來”——利潤將主要來源于承銷費、并購咨詢費和投資管理費，而不是高杠桿比率的自營交易。它對于高凈值個人而言是個好消息：這些人會感受到更多的關愛。“每家華爾街公司都在盯著財富管理，”其中一家公司的前高管表示。這也難怪，這項業務高回報、低波動。但要拓展財富管理業務很難，因為這些有錢的客戶更看重顧問個人，而不是這些顧問所代表的公司。然而，招聘和建立一支頂級顧問團隊需要時間。 ????華爾街面臨的一個更大的挑戰是華爾街已不再是金融世界的中心。2005年，全球市值最高的十家銀行里有5家是美國銀行，前五中就占據了4家，高居榜首的是花旗集團（Citigroup），其次是美國銀行（Bank of America），前十中絕無中資銀行身影。如今，前十大銀行中已經有4家是中資銀行，拔得頭籌的是中國工商銀行（Industrial & Commercial Bank of China），其次是中國建設銀行（China Construction Bank）。只有4家是美國銀行，其中市值最大的富國銀行（Wells Fargo）也僅居第四。全球私募股權投資巨頭——凱雷集團（Carlyle Group）的董事總經理戴維·魯賓斯坦提出了一個關鍵的問題：“當今的美國仍能主導全球金融市場嗎？1960年美國占全球GDP總量為46%，現在為21%。我們仍能獨霸全球投資銀行業嗎？” ????答案顯然是否定的。推而廣之，華爾街必須進行痛苦的變革。幾年前盈利能力還讓人艷羨不已的華爾街大公司如今連資本成本也賺不回來。它們正在隕落，而其近期前景更是毋庸置疑：回報率和利潤將進一步下降。這些公司必須瘦身，削減費用，降低薪資。昔日的輝煌已經不再。 ????但是別著急。華爾街的光輝歲月似乎是十年一個周期，就像時鐘一樣精準。20世紀70年代末由于長達十年的市場停滯，華爾街也曾暫別光榮歲月；80年代末時也一樣，當時收購和管理層并購（LBO）都出現了降溫；90年代末，伴隨著網絡泡沫破滅；如今則是因為次貸危機。然而，每一次，華爾街都以無人能預見的新方式卷土重來。 ????這個規律讓華爾街仍然心存希望。但是對于巴尼·弗蘭克和他大力協助打造的大批新監管機構來說，這一點卻令人擔憂。 |
????As currently drafted, the Volcker Rule is "a complete game changer," says Whitney. Beyond the ban on proprietary trading, for example, banks may no longer hold securities in inventory on the chance that a customer might want them; a customer must first state an intention to buy them. "I can't have anything in the dairy case. When you order, I've got to go out and find the cow," says Whitney. And that "slows the business down dramatically." ????So will other new rules, especially the higher capital requirements that regulators are imposing. The effects of entirely new regulatory bodies created by Dodd-Frank are still mostly unknown. The Financial Stability Oversight Council is just getting started. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau doesn't yet have a director. They, and the hundreds of new rules still to be written, will shorten Wall Street's reach and hinder its speed. That's what they're meant to do. ????What is Wall Street's business model in a world like that? The phrase you keep hearing is "back to the future" -- making money on fees for underwriting, M&A advice, and investment management rather than on highly leveraged proprietary trading. Good news for high-net-worth individuals: You'll be feeling lots more love. "Each of these firms is looking at wealth management," says a former top executive at one of them. No wonder: It's a high-return, low-volatility business. But building it is hard because those well-off clients are far more attached to their advisers than to the firms those advisers represent. Recruiting and developing an army of top-quality advisers take time. ????A bigger challenge for Wall Street is that its turf is no longer the center of the financial universe. In 2005, five of the world's 10 most valuable banks were American, including four of the top five, led by No. 1 Citigroup (C) and No. 2 Bank of America (BAC); none of the top 10 were Chinese. Today four of the top 10 are Chinese, led by No. 1 Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and No. 2 China Construction Bank. Only four are American, the most valuable of which, Wells Fargo (WFC), is No. 4. David Rubenstein, managing director of the giant Carlyle Group private equity firm, poses the key questions: "Is the U.S. still able to dominate global financial markets? We were 46% of the world's GDP in 1960. Now we're 21%. Can we still have virtually 100% of the world's investment banks?" ????The answer -- no -- is obvious. More broadly, Wall Street has to change in painful ways. The major firms, gloriously profitable just a few years ago, are not earning their cost of capital. They're failing, and everyone seems to agree on their near-term future: lower returns and lower profits. The firms have to get smaller, cut expenses, live less large, pay people less. The glory days are over. ????But hold on. Wall Street's glory days are over every 10 years, like clockwork. They were over at the end of the '70s, after a decade of market stagnation; again at the end of the '80s, when takeovers and LBOs faded; at the end of the '90s, with the dotcom bust; and now with the subprime disaster. Every time, Wall Street comes back in new ways that no one imagined. ????That pattern is hopeful for the firms. For Barney Frank and the legions of new regulators he helped to create, it's worrisome. |
最新文章