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????“現在該把錢投在什么地方？”《財富》雜志（Fortune）每年在投資者指南（Investor's Guide）中提出的問題一直都讓人頗費思量。答案自然因人而異——你的財務狀況，你的投資目標，你的風險承受度，計劃投資時限和耐力。所有這些只有投資者本人才知道。 ????但今年要答好這個問題尤其困難，因為全球金融市場比2008-09年美國市場暴跌、擠提擔憂蔓延之時還要動蕩。當時，似乎只有美國麻煩重重。現如今，不只美國還沒有走出困境，歐元區很多大國也陷入了大麻煩。日本的問題由來已久，嚴重程度比我們只有有過之而無不及。還有，中國——但誰知道那里到底是個什么情況。又或者它的統計數據和公司財務報告到底有多可靠？ ????雖然時不時地會有段好日子，但美國的情況并沒有看上去那么美好。當形勢這么不確定的時候，一般建議都是尋找避風港，以應對通脹和未來美元幾乎確定無疑的貶值風險。一類傳統的“安全”投資是債券，特別是美國國債。另一類避風港則是海外股票，海外公司共同基金以及（對于更具冒險精神和更成熟的投資者而言）外匯投資。接下來是大宗商品和“硬資產”，比如金、銀、銅、石油和鉆石，普遍認為如果美元繼續貶值、通脹繼續上升，這些商品和資產都能保值。 ????如今，上述避風港——債券、海外股票、外匯和大宗商品——無一能給人哪怕一絲一毫的安全感。但不要絕望。我有一項策略或許管用，而且我自己已經付諸實施了。稍后我們將談到這項策略。 ????要想知道投資世界已變得如何之瘋狂，看看美國股市就可見一斑（當然，前提是你的神經足夠強大，能承受這個市場的跌宕起伏）。感恩節那周的四個交易日內，市場一改往日長假前的昏昏欲睡之態，罕見地出現了大跌，標準普爾500指數重挫了近5%。但在接下來一周卻又上漲了7.4%。市場就像過山車一樣。 ????前一天，歐洲四面楚歌——歐元注定將瓦解，大量歐洲銀行也岌岌可危，這些就像金融界的蘑菇云一樣，必然會給美國經濟帶來劇烈沖擊。市場慘淡，人人自危。然而第二天卻又傳來一個據說可行的解決方案。市場隨即飆升。但是誰能知道明天或者下周會是什么情況？ ????要想預測美國經濟，特別是美國就業市場，也已幾乎成為了一項不可能完成的任務。美國的大型企業——也就是那些總部位于美國的大公司，“美國的”一詞意味著這些企業對這個國家仍感到有一定的歸屬感和責任感——總體利潤和現金水平均創新高，但在美國國內沒有進行太多招聘。伙計們，真得好好謝謝你們。 |
????It's never easy to answer the question that Fortune poses in its annual Investor's Guide: Where should you put your money now? The response, of course, depends on your individual situation -- your finances, your goals, your tolerance for risk, your time horizon, and your staying power. All of which only you can know. ????This year it's far more difficult than usual for anyone to answer this question, because the financial world is even more unstable than it was in 2008-09, when U.S. markets were in free fall and fear ran rampant. Back then, only the U.S. seemed scarily messed up. Now not only is the U.S. still messed up, but substantial countries in the eurozone are mega-messed up. Japan has serious long-term problems, even worse than ours. And China -- well, who knows what really goes on there, or how reliable its statistics and company financial reports are? ????Despite good days here and there, things in the U.S. aren't all that wonderful. At a time when things are so uncertain here, the standard advice is to seek safety, and to protect yourself against inflation and the almost certain future decline of the dollar. One traditional "safe" investment is bonds, especially Treasury bonds. Another haven is foreign stocks or foreign-company mutual funds, and -- for the more venturesome and sophisticated -- foreign currencies. Then there are commodities and "hard assets" such as gold, silver, copper, oil, and diamonds that will presumably hold their value if the dollar's decline continues and inflation rises. ????None of those options -- bonds, foreign stocks and currencies, and commodities -- feel even remotely safe these days. But don't despair. I do have one strategy that you may find useful and that I've adopted myself. We'll get to it in a bit. ????For an example of how wild and crazy the investment world has become, take a look at the U.S. stock market (assuming that you have a stomach strong enough to withstand the lurching). For the four trading days of Thanksgiving week, a normally sleepy holiday period rarely associated with turkey markets, the S&P 500 fell almost 5%. The following week it rose 7.4%. Whipsaw City. ????One day the news out of Europe is dire -- the euro is doomed, as are many European banks, with toxic fallout certain to hit the U.S. economy like a radioactive financial cloud. Markets swoon. Panic reigns. The next day there's a supposed fix. Markets soar. Tomorrow or next week, who knows? ????The U.S. economy, especially the job market, is also almost impossible to predict. Big American companies -- make that big companies based in the U.S., because "American" implies that the companies feel some loyalty to this country -- are collectively showing record profits and record levels of cash, but aren't doing much hiring here. Thanks, guys. |
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