未來屬于智能手機
點此放大，圖片來源：Asymco
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????最近，數碼產業分析公司ComScore發布了2011年7月份美國智能手機數據。市場情報分析公司Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐的任務完成得一如既往的漂亮，他再次將這些數據轉換成為一目了然而又內涵深刻的圖表。 ????從德迪歐于上周四發布的三幅圖表，我們可以看出以下三方面的內容： ????1.智能手機未來的增長空間。 ????2.蘋果（Apple）iPhone和谷歌（Google）Android排擠競爭對手的成度。 ????3.微軟（Microsoft）重返智能手機舞臺的重重困難。 ????我非常喜歡這些圖表，因為它能給予你直觀印象——美國手機市場究竟有多大？智能手機制造商究竟還有多少增長空間？ ????在Asymco網站的主頁上，讀者可以找到另外兩幅圖表，就在德迪歐名為《第三大智能手機生態系統：勝算幾何？》（The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds）的文章里。 ????第三大生態系統，當然非微軟Windows Phone 7莫屬。不少分析人士認為它能搶占上圖天空位置藍色部分（指功能手機市場——譯注）的最大份額。 ????但德迪歐對此持懷疑態度。他在文中稱： ????過去一年，Android在美國獲得了2,500萬用戶；iPhone獲得了950萬用戶；黑莓（Blackberry）和微軟則分別流失了320萬和160萬用戶。其它平臺則總計流失120萬用戶。 ????整個智能手機市場用戶合計凈增長290萬。 ????從2010年10月開始，黑莓手機生產商RIM從用戶持續凈增長轉為用戶持續凈流失。雖然Windows Phone在保住用戶基數，避免用戶流失方面做得不錯，但其市場份額持續低于5%。（目前為4.7%，上個月為4.6%）。 ????讓我們換個角度看看微軟面臨的艱難險阻，在美國市場，Android和iPhone的市場保有量目前分別為Windows Phone 7的7倍和5倍。如果一些分析師的預測成真，Windows Phone 7未來將成為美國最大的移動平臺，那么微軟必須面對12：1的巨大差距，而且這一差距看來還在不斷擴大。 ????微軟成功的幾率非常低。 ????除了這些吸引眼球的圖表，德迪歐在Asymco博客主持的討論也非常棒，質量很高。到上周五早上，德迪歐的文章已獲得62條評論。讀者可以點擊鏈接發表高見。 ????譯者：項航 |
????ComScore released its July 2011 U.S. smartphone data this week and as usual Asymco's Horace Dediu has done the best job of turning the numbers into striking -- and insightful -- graphics. ????On Thursday he released three charts that show: ????1. The scale of the opportunity for further smartphone growth ????2. The extent to which Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android are squeezing out the competition ????3. The challenge Microsoft (MSFT) faces as it tries to get back into the game ????I'm particularly fond of the chart at right because it gives you a sense of how large the U.S. cell phone market really is and how much room for growth it offers smartphone manufacturers. ????You can see the other two charts at the Asmyco entry Dediu has titled The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds? ????The third ecosystem, of course, is Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, which many analysts believe could capture the lion's share of the blue sky in the graph above. ????Dediu is skeptical. He writes: ????In the last 12 months, Android gained 25 million users in the US. iPhone gained 9.5 million while Blackberry lost 3.2 million and Microsoft lost 1.6 million. Other platforms had a net loss of 1.2 million. ????The total net gain of smartphones was about 29 million new users. ????RIM switched from being a consistent net gainer of users to a consistent net loser of users in October 2010. Windows Phone is showing signs of holding the line on user base erosion but share remains below 5% (now at 4.7% vs. 4.6% last month). ????To put the mountain-sized hurdle in perspective, Android now has 7 times more users in the US while iPhone has about 5 times more. To become the largest mobile platform in the US, as some analysts are predicting, Microsoft has a 12:1 disadvantage that looks to continue to grow. ????Those are some pretty tough odds. ????One of the great things about Dediu's Asymco blog, besides the eye-catching graphics, is the quality of the discussion he moderates. As of Friday morning, this post had generated 62 comments. You can add yours here. |
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