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比爾·蓋茨:世界正面臨兩種選擇

ELEANOR PRINGLE
2024-09-16

一場(chǎng)“大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”或30年內(nèi)再次爆發(fā)大流行病

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比爾·蓋茨(Bill Gates)對(duì)世界應(yīng)對(duì)另一場(chǎng)大流行病的準(zhǔn)備情況不甚滿(mǎn)意。圖片來(lái)源:SEAN GALLUP - GETTY IMAGES

有些問(wèn)題甚至讓億萬(wàn)富翁、慈善家和企業(yè)家比爾·蓋茨夜不能寐。大流行病還會(huì)再次爆發(fā)嗎?全球緊張局勢(shì)是否會(huì)達(dá)到一觸即發(fā)的程度,引發(fā)全球戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)?什么會(huì)把我們推向危險(xiǎn)的邊緣?

作為三個(gè)孩子的父親,蓋茨堅(jiān)定不移地對(duì)人工智能和根除小兒麻痹癥等致命疾病持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,但他仍然擔(dān)心會(huì)發(fā)生大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或另一場(chǎng)大流行病。

他舉例說(shuō),目前世界“動(dòng)蕩不安”,可能引發(fā)“大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”。

“即使沖突得以避免,毋庸置疑,很可能在未來(lái)25年內(nèi),還會(huì)有另一場(chǎng)大流行病。”蓋茨告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)。

這位微軟(Microsoft)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人對(duì)全球應(yīng)對(duì)大流行病的措施不甚滿(mǎn)意,并表示關(guān)鍵的教訓(xùn)被忽視了。

他對(duì)美國(guó)的危機(jī)應(yīng)對(duì)措施提出了批評(píng),他說(shuō):“世界期望美國(guó)成為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者和榜樣,但美國(guó)未能達(dá)到這些期望。”

這位69歲的老人補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“盡管我們已經(jīng)從(冠狀病毒)大流行中吸取了一些教訓(xùn),但遺憾的是,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于我的預(yù)期。”

蓋茨并不是唯一感到失望的人,許多其他全球健康倡導(dǎo)者也在敦促西方世界采取更完善的措施應(yīng)對(duì)新爆發(fā)的疫情。

保羅·亨特(Paul Hunter)教授是英國(guó)諾威奇東英吉利大學(xué)(University of East Anglia)新發(fā)疾病流行病學(xué)專(zhuān)家。

上個(gè)月,亨特教授在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)談到了一種致命的新型猴痘病毒,他表示:“在西方,只有在一種疾病開(kāi)始直接威脅我們時(shí),我們才會(huì)真正關(guān)注相關(guān)情況。問(wèn)題是,如果各國(guó)實(shí)際上有足夠的資源,原本是可以避免很多疾病傳播的。”

這是一個(gè)反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的主題,在新冠肺炎疫情期間尤為明顯,他補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“西方國(guó)家只有在發(fā)現(xiàn)病例時(shí)才會(huì)開(kāi)始關(guān)注流行病的控制問(wèn)題,而那時(shí)要根除感染幾乎已經(jīng)為時(shí)已晚。”

蓋茨也表示,他希望衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)在未來(lái)幾年開(kāi)始考慮更長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的問(wèn)題,并補(bǔ)充說(shuō):"我們還沒(méi)有就我們做得好的地方和做得不好的地方進(jìn)行集思廣益……也許在未來(lái)五年,情況會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。”

“但是,到目前為止,這種情況還是很令人吃驚的。”

這一信息也從最高級(jí)別機(jī)構(gòu)——世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)向下傳遞。

今年早些時(shí)候,世界衛(wèi)生組織發(fā)布了關(guān)于流感病毒通過(guò)牛、鳥(niǎo)和人類(lèi)傳播的警告,并敦促各國(guó)共同努力,為大流行做好充分準(zhǔn)備。

全球流感中心主任尼古拉·劉易斯(Nicola Lewis)表示:“有一點(diǎn)是肯定的:未來(lái)將會(huì)有另一場(chǎng)流感大流行。”

劉易斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“我要向國(guó)際社會(huì)傳達(dá)的信息是,我們必須摒棄沉默,拋開(kāi)狹隘的關(guān)注點(diǎn),牢記全球大流行病的影響和破壞性后果,無(wú)論它來(lái)自哪種病原體。”

對(duì)世界大戰(zhàn)的恐懼

根據(jù)彭博億萬(wàn)富豪指數(shù),蓋茨的身價(jià)高達(dá)1570億美元,他并不是唯一一個(gè)對(duì)潛在的全球沖突發(fā)出警告的有影響力的人物。

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)此前曾表示,地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大威脅,去年9月,他告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道附屬網(wǎng)絡(luò)CNBC TV-18:“我們以前應(yīng)對(duì)過(guò)通貨膨脹、赤字和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來(lái),我們還沒(méi)有真正見(jiàn)過(guò)這樣的事情。”他告訴印度新聞?lì)l道。

“我認(rèn)為美國(guó)對(duì)[俄烏沖突]非常重視,我不太確定世界其他國(guó)家如何看待這一沖突。一個(gè)歐洲民主國(guó)家在核訛詐的威脅下遭到入侵。我認(rèn)為應(yīng)對(duì)措施相當(dāng)?shù)轿唬@會(huì)影響我們建立的所有關(guān)系,直到戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以某種方式得到解決。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

有些問(wèn)題甚至讓億萬(wàn)富翁、慈善家和企業(yè)家比爾·蓋茨夜不能寐。大流行病還會(huì)再次爆發(fā)嗎?全球緊張局勢(shì)是否會(huì)達(dá)到一觸即發(fā)的程度,引發(fā)全球戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)?什么會(huì)把我們推向危險(xiǎn)的邊緣?

作為三個(gè)孩子的父親,蓋茨堅(jiān)定不移地對(duì)人工智能和根除小兒麻痹癥等致命疾病持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,但他仍然擔(dān)心會(huì)發(fā)生大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或另一場(chǎng)大流行病。

他舉例說(shuō),目前世界“動(dòng)蕩不安”,可能引發(fā)“大規(guī)模戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”。

“即使沖突得以避免,毋庸置疑,很可能在未來(lái)25年內(nèi),還會(huì)有另一場(chǎng)大流行病。”蓋茨告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)

這位微軟(Microsoft)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人對(duì)全球應(yīng)對(duì)大流行病的措施不甚滿(mǎn)意,并表示關(guān)鍵的教訓(xùn)被忽視了。

他對(duì)美國(guó)的危機(jī)應(yīng)對(duì)措施提出了批評(píng),他說(shuō):“世界期望美國(guó)成為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者和榜樣,但美國(guó)未能達(dá)到這些期望。”

這位69歲的老人補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“盡管我們已經(jīng)從(冠狀病毒)大流行中吸取了一些教訓(xùn),但遺憾的是,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于我的預(yù)期。”

蓋茨并不是唯一感到失望的人,許多其他全球健康倡導(dǎo)者也在敦促西方世界采取更完善的措施應(yīng)對(duì)新爆發(fā)的疫情。

保羅·亨特(Paul Hunter)教授是英國(guó)諾威奇東英吉利大學(xué)(University of East Anglia)新發(fā)疾病流行病學(xué)專(zhuān)家。

上個(gè)月,亨特教授在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)談到了一種致命的新型猴痘病毒,他表示:“在西方,只有在一種疾病開(kāi)始直接威脅我們時(shí),我們才會(huì)真正關(guān)注相關(guān)情況。問(wèn)題是,如果各國(guó)實(shí)際上有足夠的資源,原本是可以避免很多疾病傳播的。”

這是一個(gè)反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的主題,在新冠肺炎疫情期間尤為明顯,他補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“西方國(guó)家只有在發(fā)現(xiàn)病例時(shí)才會(huì)開(kāi)始關(guān)注流行病的控制問(wèn)題,而那時(shí)要根除感染幾乎已經(jīng)為時(shí)已晚。”

蓋茨也表示,他希望衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)在未來(lái)幾年開(kāi)始考慮更長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的問(wèn)題,并補(bǔ)充說(shuō):"我們還沒(méi)有就我們做得好的地方和做得不好的地方進(jìn)行集思廣益……也許在未來(lái)五年,情況會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。”

“但是,到目前為止,這種情況還是很令人吃驚的。”

這一信息也從最高級(jí)別機(jī)構(gòu)——世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)向下傳遞。

今年早些時(shí)候,世界衛(wèi)生組織發(fā)布了關(guān)于流感病毒通過(guò)牛、鳥(niǎo)和人類(lèi)傳播的警告,并敦促各國(guó)共同努力,為大流行做好充分準(zhǔn)備。

全球流感中心主任尼古拉·劉易斯(Nicola Lewis)表示:“有一點(diǎn)是肯定的:未來(lái)將會(huì)有另一場(chǎng)流感大流行。”

劉易斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“我要向國(guó)際社會(huì)傳達(dá)的信息是,我們必須摒棄沉默,拋開(kāi)狹隘的關(guān)注點(diǎn),牢記全球大流行病的影響和破壞性后果,無(wú)論它來(lái)自哪種病原體。”

對(duì)世界大戰(zhàn)的恐懼

根據(jù)彭博億萬(wàn)富豪指數(shù),蓋茨的身價(jià)高達(dá)1570億美元,他并不是唯一一個(gè)對(duì)潛在的全球沖突發(fā)出警告的有影響力的人物。

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)此前曾表示,地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大威脅,去年9月,他告訴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道附屬網(wǎng)絡(luò)CNBC TV-18:“我們以前應(yīng)對(duì)過(guò)通貨膨脹、赤字和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來(lái),我們還沒(méi)有真正見(jiàn)過(guò)這樣的事情。”他告訴印度新聞?lì)l道。

“我認(rèn)為美國(guó)對(duì)[俄烏沖突]非常重視,我不太確定世界其他國(guó)家如何看待這一沖突。一個(gè)歐洲民主國(guó)家在核訛詐的威脅下遭到入侵。我認(rèn)為應(yīng)對(duì)措施相當(dāng)?shù)轿唬@會(huì)影響我們建立的所有關(guān)系,直到戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以某種方式得到解決。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

There are some questions that keep even billionaire philanthropist and entrepreneur Bill Gates up at night. Will there be another pandemic? Are global tensions going to reach a boiling point, sparking a global war? What would push us to that precipice?

While Gates, a father of three, is determinedly optimistic about the likes of AI and eradicating deadly diseases like polio, he remains concerned about either a widespread war or another pandemic.

He cited “a lot of unrest” in the world at the moment, which could spark “a major war.”

But even if that conflict is avoided, “then yes, there will be another pandemic, most likely in the next 25 years,” Gates told CNBC Make It.

The Microsoft cofounder was unimpressed with the global response to the pandemic and said crucial lessons have been ignored.

He was critical of America’s response to the crisis, saying: “The country that the world expected to lead and be the model fell short of those expectations.

“Although some of the lessons from [the coronavirus] pandemic have been learned, [it’s been] way less than I would expect, sadly,” the 69-year-old added.

Gates isn’t alone in his disappointment; many other global health advocates are also pushing the Western world for better responses to emerging outbreaks.

Professor Paul Hunter is an expert in the epidemiology of emerging diseases based out of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England.

Speaking to Fortune last month about a deadly new strain of mpox, Professor Hunter said: “In the West we only really get interested in a disease when it starts directly threatening us. The problem is that so many of these diseases could have been prevented from spreading if the countries on the ground had had the resources.”

This is a recurring theme, one which was apparent during COVID, he added: “The West only gets concerned about controlling epidemics when we start seeing cases, and then it is almost always too late to eradicate the infection.”

Gates echoed that he hopes health bodies will begin thinking more long-term in the coming years, adding: “Getting our thoughts together about what [we did] well, what we didn’t do well, is still not happening… Perhaps, in the next five years, that’ll get better.

“But, so far, it’s quite surprising.”

This message is also being passed down from the top of the tree: the World Health Organization (WHO).

Earlier this year, WHO shared a warning about the spread of the influenza virus through cattle, birds, and humans and urged nations to work together to be better prepared for a pandemic.

“There is one certainty: There will be another flu pandemic in the future,” said Nicola Lewis, director of the Worldwide Influenza Centre.

Lewis added: “My message to international communities is that we have to set aside our reticence. We have to set aside our parochial concerns and remember the impacts and the devastating consequences of a global pandemic from whatever disease agent it comes from.”

World war fears

Gates—who is worth $157 billion per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—isn’t the only influential name warning about a potential global conflict.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has previously said geopolitical tensions are the biggest threat facing the global economy, telling CNBC affiliate network CNBC TV-18 last September: “We have dealt with inflation before, we dealt with deficits before, we have dealt with recessions before, and we haven’t really seen something like this pretty much since World War II,” he told the Indian news channel.

“I think America takes [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine] very seriously, I’m not quite sure how the rest of the world does. You have a European democratic nation invaded under the threat of nuclear blackmail. I think it’s been a good response, but it’s going to affect all of our relationships until somehow the war is resolved.”

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