2022年10月,就在FTX倒閉前幾周,克里斯·迪克森坐下來寫了一本關于加密貨幣的書。這位風險投資家和永久樂觀主義者希望分享他所鐘愛的技術的全新愿景。迪克森曾在互聯網發展初期創辦過初創公司,當時谷歌(Google)和臉書(Facebook)等公司還沒有成為獨占鰲頭的科技巨頭,他相信區塊鏈的去中心化承諾可以為開放式互聯網的早期基石注入新活力。
到2022年底,這一愿景被一個以賭場心態為主導、由山姆·班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried)等自吹自擂的可恥推銷員定義的行業所掩蓋。對于許多旁觀者來說,FTX破產就像是個轉折點,加密貨幣成為了欺詐的代名詞。
迪克森上周在吃早餐時告訴我:“我當時想,‘見鬼,這太令人沮喪了,’我為自己感到遺憾。然后我就想,‘我可以把這看作一個令人沮喪的時刻,抑或是機遇。’”
他在科技領域工作了幾十年,曾是創辦早期人工智能公司的創業者、天使投資人,后來成為風險投資巨頭安德里森霍羅威茨(Andreessen Horowitz,又稱a16z)的合伙人。公眾對他的項目的看法和他自己的理解從未出現過如此大的分歧。他心想:“我可以嘗試縮小差距。”
于是,他寫下了《可讀-可寫-可擁有》(Read Write Own),該書是加密貨幣優點的宣言。對于那些仍然認為區塊鏈技術將引領下一代互聯網的人來說,這本書很可能會成為圣經和自助書籍的結合。該書將于1月30日發行,是對這個經常成為外界笑柄的行業的有力辯護。
雖然迪克森年僅52歲,但他在某種程度上是加密貨幣領域的元老。他認為,區塊鏈不僅僅是“數字不斷飆升”的賭博和自詡為墮落者的玩物,它還可以成為一種非政治性軟件,將互聯網從企業霸主手中拯救出來。
作為a16z加密貨幣基金公司的負責人,迪克森并不只是紙上談兵的理論家。他真正參與了這場游戲,投資者投入的資金高達76億美元。他的書不僅僅是一本關于網絡未來的專著,也在號召大家行動起來為該行業的生存而斗爭。
大教堂與集市
迪克森從網絡的角度來看待互聯網,它不僅關乎人們如何實現連接,還關乎不同的技術如何相互作用來構建我們所熟知的網絡基礎設施。
今天,我們所認為的互聯網大多由大型公司擁有和控制。從WhatsApp到Gmail,再到為這些平臺提供動力的云計算服務,所有這些都由少數幾家公司運營,這些公司不僅決定了平臺的運營方式,還攫取了幾乎所有的利潤,打壓從報紙到旅行社等各個行業。
事情并非總是如此。互聯網的早期開發者設想過更加開放的網絡,這種網絡以民主的方式管理,將決定權交到人們手中,或者至少是任何足夠留意并參與其中的人手中。
這一愿景通過簡單郵件傳輸協議(SMTP,電子郵件傳輸的標準通信協議)和超文本傳輸協議(HTTP,計算機之間相互通信)等協議,依然存在于現代互聯網的構件中。另一個協議是域名系統(DNS),它允許我們訪問具有人類可讀名稱的網頁,比如Fortune.com,而不是一串數字。
這些協議通常是免費的,或是使用價格低廉,要么是開源的,要么是由非營利組織管理的,其任務是維護而不是追求利潤。正是因為它們的存在,電子郵件才不受谷歌控制,網址才不受亞馬遜(Amazon)控制,網上沖浪才不受微軟(Microsoft)控制。
迪克森告訴我:"我一直很討厭微軟。”這句話出自科技界最有權勢的人之口,似乎有些怪異,尤其是他所在的風險投資公司,通過向臉書和推特(Twitter)等公司投入數十億美元,幫助打造了我們今天所熟知的互聯網。
盡管迪克森身家豐厚、地位顯赫,但他的言談舉止卻十分悠閑。他建議我們在一家餐館見面,但他在翠貝卡最喜歡的那家餐館已經關門了,所以我在《財富》雜志辦公室附近找了一家。享用著一盤盛滿雞蛋、香腸和土豆的菜肴,他看起來更像一位大學教授,而不是風險投資巨頭。他的回答段落冗長,但當他對某個想法異常興奮時,也會提高音調。當我們走出門外,來到等候他的黑色SUV和司機面前時,他的學者形象就蕩然無存了。
迪克森說,他的職業生涯源于對開源軟件的熱愛,比如Unix操作系統。這也是區塊鏈吸引他的原因。他是一位多產的博客作者,大約在2009年,他開始撰寫關于互聯網中心化的文章。具體來說,他被程序員埃里克·雷蒙德(Eric Raymond)創造的"大教堂與集市"的比喻所吸引。在"大教堂"模式中,軟件被嚴格限制在內部開發人員的范圍內,這些開發人員通常受雇于一家公司,他們可以構建精致美觀的架構,但不對外界貢獻者開放。與此相反,集市則是開源的,熙熙攘攘而且沒有明確的秩序,但卻通過合作而變得充滿活力。
毋庸置疑,像推特和臉書這樣的平臺仍然試圖把自己打造成集市。它們邀請開發者在自己的平臺上開發應用程序,推特承諾支持簡易信息聚合(RSS),即另一種允許用戶關注不同網站和博客的開源協議。盡管如此,迪克森認為,它們的運作模式更像是大教堂模式,他當時寫道,自己擔心它們會關閉訪問。“問題在于推特并不是真正開放的。”他在2009年10月的博客中寫道。“在某種程度上,推特需要實現高額營收來證明自己的估值是合理的。”誠然,他的觀點是正確的。
與此同時,當年早些時候,化名為中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的人發表了白皮書,向全世界介紹比特幣。迪克森并沒有立即改弦更張。中本聰最初將加密貨幣設想為一種新的貨幣形式,即比特幣所謂的用例是金融相關,而迪克森則更關心更廣泛的基礎設施協議。不過,他還是發現了區塊鏈的價值——一種新型網絡,可以分散所有權,由參與者管理,并由軟件實現運行。
作為天使投資人,迪克森進行了數年小額投資,影響力有限。2012年,他加入了a16z和風險投資大聯盟。他告訴我:“我想加入風險投資公司的唯一原因是,我可以更上一層樓,真正嘗試探索新計算運動。”
目前尚不清楚區塊鏈是否會成為未來。迪克森最早押注的是新興的加密貨幣交易所Coinbase(2013年領投),但他也投資了虛擬現實公司Oculus(后被Meta收購)和無人機初創公司Airware(已于2018年倒閉)。
他預計比特幣將以一種允許軟件開發人員添加新功能,并擴展區塊鏈用例的方式發展。比特幣團隊從未這么做過。相反,一個名為以太坊(Ethereum)的新區塊鏈于2015年推出,承諾允許程序員創建任何形式的去中心化應用程序。三年后,在迪克森的領導下,A16z推出了首只專為加密貨幣領域設立的風險基金。
‘高糖效應’
迪克森對區塊鏈的宣傳很簡單,這在他的書名中得到了很好的概括。第一代互聯網在早期協議和網絡瀏覽器等創新技術的推動下,使得我們能夠進行消費和讀取信息。第二代互聯網在臉書和蘋果(Apple)等公司網絡的推動下,使得我們可以創作和編寫自己的內容。第三代互聯網是由區塊鏈驅動的,因此,我們能夠掌控從決策到獲取收益的全過程。
例如,一個去中心化的社交媒體平臺將允許用戶對內容審核進行投票,并保持代碼開源,從而形成一個充滿活力的第三方應用生態系統。如果沒有廣告收入流向平臺,用戶實際上可以將自己的內容貨幣化,而代幣系統可以分配收益,并作為治理機制起到雙重作用。
能夠想象得到這樣的美好世界,但在比特幣出現超過15年后,這個世界仍未變成現實。這并不是因為缺乏嘗試。針對消費者的加密貨幣項目層出不窮,數十億美元的資金投入也讓這些項目大行其道。然而,加密貨幣仍未迎來“ChatGPT”時刻,即所謂的殺手級應用程序,助力其突破主流市場。
在加密貨幣領域,一個常見的說法是,我們還處于起步階段,畢竟普通人花了幾十年的時間才接觸到互聯網。第一篇關于人工神經網絡的論文發表于1943年,比ChatGPT的推出早了75年。迪克森承認,他常常超前布局。他在2009年創立了自己的第一家人工智能公司,但由于技術不達標,最終將公司賣給了eBay。
迪克森堅信“功能等價”,他認為加密應用程序只有在與非區塊鏈競爭對手一樣出色時才會流行起來。由于處理時間緩慢、費用通常過高以及長期存在的安全問題,這一天似乎還很遙遠。 他問道:“當交易成本為10美元時,你能開發出多少殺手級應用程序?”不過,迪克森表示,有一種"樂觀的設想",即區塊鏈的計算能力在未來12個月內達到充足水平。我問他,我們是否會像他的第一次人工智能賭博一樣,在十幾年后才能實現。 “我希望不會。”他笑著說。
與此同時,加密貨幣唯一受到追捧的方面就是投機性,從最近對比特幣現貨交易所交易基金的狂熱到FTX這樣的數字資產賭場。
a16z投資組合公司Uniswap Labs的首席運營官瑪麗-凱瑟琳·拉德(Mary-Catherine Lader)告訴我:“人們總是情不自禁地談論價格。金錢對人有吸引力。”
迪克森將加密貨幣投機熱潮描述為“高糖效應”。它不僅導致這一領域形象不佳,擠走了用戶,還讓他投資的公司感到挫敗,這些公司正試圖建立穩固的基礎架構。他告訴我:“街上還有其他人說,‘嘿,投擲一下狗狗幣Bonk。’”他指的是Solana區塊鏈上新近被炒得火熱的模因幣。“這引起了人們的關注。”
作為回應,迪克森扮演了一個不同尋常的風險投資人的角色,他花時間在華盛頓游說政府制定新法律來管理加密貨幣。和許多業內人士一樣,他認為美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)正在扼殺創新,原因是它在打擊像Solana這樣提供實用代幣的區塊鏈和像Coinbase這樣的本土公司,卻允許所謂的垃圾幣和離岸交易所蓬勃發展。
A16z加密貨幣基金聘請了前監管機構和政府工作人員,而迪克森本人也經常參與捐贈,OpenSecrets的公開數據顯示,他向十多位對加密貨幣友好的國會議員捐款。迪克森的老朋友、風險投資界傳奇人物羅恩·康韋(Ron Conway)告訴我:“與議員們會面是一項瑣碎而繁重的工作。大多數風險投資公司都對這種活動避而遠之。”
a16z的聯合創始人本·霍洛維茨(Ben Horowitz)告訴我,在看到Meta等大型科技公司在華盛頓施展影響力后,該公司決定加入游說行列。他告訴我:“這些擁有壟斷產品的強大公司在華盛頓非常活躍。如果沒有人代表小型科技公司,我們將面臨監管俘獲,創新速度將大幅放緩。”
風險投資領域視而不見的棘手問題
A16z成為去中心化網絡的擁護者,這對迪克森來說不無諷刺意味。憑借對愛彼迎(Airbnb)、臉書和推特等公司的投資,這家風險投資公司幫助引領了企業主導的互聯網時代,而迪克森現在正懇求我們繼續前行,進入第三代互聯網。
迪克森說:"我原以為互聯網會更加分散,但我想錯了。我們既不知道,也不想創建一個會導致風險投資消亡的體系,原因是這樣做會導致只有四家公司控制互聯網。"
據霍洛維茨估計,除了照片分享應用程序BeReal外,a16z基本上已經放棄了對Web2的投資,甚至在其加密貨幣基金之外的投資情況也是如此。(他沒有提到該公司還出資4億美元幫助埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)在2022年收購了推特。)霍洛維茨表示:"這就是做風險投資家的好處,你可以進行很多投資。"
雖然風險投資公司可以分散賭注,但就加密貨幣而言,一家大型風險投資公司的參與仍會引發人們的擔憂,擔心它會破壞區塊鏈去中心化的使命。與其他加密貨幣風險投資公司一樣,a16z在投資時經常收到代幣,而不是傳統股權,這意味著它可能會對項目的治理產生巨大影響。
這種擔憂引發了爭議,比如a16z支持了一項不受歡迎的提議,即Uniswap使用另一家投資組合公司LayerZero作為底層基礎架構,而不是使用競爭對手Wormhole。雖然a16z試圖通過辯稱它向學生社團和非營利組織分發代幣來轉移批評,但Crypto Twitter上憤怒的純粹主義者指責該公司明顯“擁有”Uniswap的開放協議。
拉德在Uniswap Labs工作,從技術上講,該公司與Uniswap協議是分開的,她表示自己不會與迪克森討論治理問題。不過,她還是認為,去中心化并不能保證所有權的平等分配,而是"公平、開放獲取"的指標。
另一個困擾加密貨幣風險投資的問題是,為了短期收益而拋售代幣的趨勢。在傳統風險投資中,公司持有投資數年,直到通過首次公開募股或收購退出。對于加密貨幣而言,代幣可以在短短一年內歸屬他人。
哥倫比亞大學商學院兼職教授奧米德·馬勒坎(Omid Malekan)說:"如果你是一名加密貨幣風險投資家,你的義務就是盡快套現。這種設計對大多數加密貨幣項目的長期可行性非常不利。”
迪克森承認,許多加密風險投資公司的運作方式更像是對沖基金,但他表示,他力主延長鎖定期,甚至幫助在擬議的加密貨幣立法中引入了這方面的條款。他告訴我:"短期激勵是一件非常危險的事情。”根據a16z發言人的說法,該加密貨幣基金仍持有其在私人市場交易中購買的全部代幣的94%。
對迪克森來說,更重要的問題是,加密貨幣項目是否需要風險規模的投資,以及隨之而來的期望。他打賭,a16z基金的接受者不僅將為下一代互聯網奠定基礎,還將收獲數十億美元。
當我問霍洛維茨時,他把這場賭博比作域名系統,即翻譯域名協議。他們并不是直接投資于公用事業,而是投資于代幣,這有點像風險投資公司在互聯網發展初期購買了大量的網址。他說:“我并不認為這之間存在緊張關系。”
學者馬勒坎則認為,近期的趨勢表明情況并非如此,尤其是當風險投資公司投資于基金會、實驗室、代幣和協議這些通常支撐加密貨幣項目的錯綜復雜的因素時。比特幣和以太坊等成功的技術幾乎不需要資金。他告訴我:"在加密貨幣領域,你幾乎可以說,取得成功與你籌集到的資金數量之間存在著很強的負相關。這不僅僅是取得一個項目的成功,你還必須像一家價值十億美元的公司那樣行事。"
雖然迪克森說,代幣是一種通過健康的投機(如房屋所有權)來推動參與的方式,但它們也可能輕易地重構出以利潤為導向有害激勵機制,而這種激勵機制正是我們當前互聯網的基礎。由a16z支持的Axie Infinity是一個突破主流市場的消費類加密貨幣項目,它刺激了扭曲的替代經濟,全球南方的勞動者們把積蓄投入到游戲中,并將其作為第二份工作。這款游戲的短暫成功可能是一次失敗的實驗,但它仍是風險投資支持、區塊鏈主導的未來的一個縮影。
目前,這還只是一個理論問題,我們在后視鏡中幾乎看不到班克曼-弗里德,而加密貨幣領域正在尋找一個立足點。眾所周知,迪克森不愿在媒體上露面,他避開了通常在美國全國廣播公司財經頻道(CNBC)和彭博電視之間進行的會議巡回和輪換,而這在他的同行中很常見。憑借《可讀-可寫-可擁有》,他正走出陰影,準備接過領導者的衣缽,為行業和非信徒開辟一條前進之路。也許,人們對a16z的成見并不能使他成為理想的信使,但他至少是一個令人信服的信使。
迪克森表示:“如果我們能夠取得成功,這似乎是一個極其巨大的機遇,其影響力也可見一斑,但往往事與愿違。順便提一下,這就是你賺錢的方式。”(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
2022年10月,就在FTX倒閉前幾周,克里斯·迪克森坐下來寫了一本關于加密貨幣的書。這位風險投資家和永久樂觀主義者希望分享他所鐘愛的技術的全新愿景。迪克森曾在互聯網發展初期創辦過初創公司,當時谷歌(Google)和臉書(Facebook)等公司還沒有成為獨占鰲頭的科技巨頭,他相信區塊鏈的去中心化承諾可以為開放式互聯網的早期基石注入新活力。
到2022年底,這一愿景被一個以賭場心態為主導、由山姆·班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried)等自吹自擂的可恥推銷員定義的行業所掩蓋。對于許多旁觀者來說,FTX破產就像是個轉折點,加密貨幣成為了欺詐的代名詞。
迪克森上周在吃早餐時告訴我:“我當時想,‘見鬼,這太令人沮喪了,’我為自己感到遺憾。然后我就想,‘我可以把這看作一個令人沮喪的時刻,抑或是機遇。’”
他在科技領域工作了幾十年,曾是創辦早期人工智能公司的創業者、天使投資人,后來成為風險投資巨頭安德里森霍羅威茨(Andreessen Horowitz,又稱a16z)的合伙人。公眾對他的項目的看法和他自己的理解從未出現過如此大的分歧。他心想:“我可以嘗試縮小差距。”
于是,他寫下了《可讀-可寫-可擁有》(Read Write Own),該書是加密貨幣優點的宣言。對于那些仍然認為區塊鏈技術將引領下一代互聯網的人來說,這本書很可能會成為圣經和自助書籍的結合。該書將于1月30日發行,是對這個經常成為外界笑柄的行業的有力辯護。
雖然迪克森年僅52歲,但他在某種程度上是加密貨幣領域的元老。他認為,區塊鏈不僅僅是“數字不斷飆升”的賭博和自詡為墮落者的玩物,它還可以成為一種非政治性軟件,將互聯網從企業霸主手中拯救出來。
作為a16z加密貨幣基金公司的負責人,迪克森并不只是紙上談兵的理論家。他真正參與了這場游戲,投資者投入的資金高達76億美元。他的書不僅僅是一本關于網絡未來的專著,也在號召大家行動起來為該行業的生存而斗爭。
大教堂與集市
迪克森從網絡的角度來看待互聯網,它不僅關乎人們如何實現連接,還關乎不同的技術如何相互作用來構建我們所熟知的網絡基礎設施。
今天,我們所認為的互聯網大多由大型公司擁有和控制。從WhatsApp到Gmail,再到為這些平臺提供動力的云計算服務,所有這些都由少數幾家公司運營,這些公司不僅決定了平臺的運營方式,還攫取了幾乎所有的利潤,打壓從報紙到旅行社等各個行業。
事情并非總是如此。互聯網的早期開發者設想過更加開放的網絡,這種網絡以民主的方式管理,將決定權交到人們手中,或者至少是任何足夠留意并參與其中的人手中。
這一愿景通過簡單郵件傳輸協議(SMTP,電子郵件傳輸的標準通信協議)和超文本傳輸協議(HTTP,計算機之間相互通信)等協議,依然存在于現代互聯網的構件中。另一個協議是域名系統(DNS),它允許我們訪問具有人類可讀名稱的網頁,比如Fortune.com,而不是一串數字。
這些協議通常是免費的,或是使用價格低廉,要么是開源的,要么是由非營利組織管理的,其任務是維護而不是追求利潤。正是因為它們的存在,電子郵件才不受谷歌控制,網址才不受亞馬遜(Amazon)控制,網上沖浪才不受微軟(Microsoft)控制。
迪克森告訴我:"我一直很討厭微軟。”這句話出自科技界最有權勢的人之口,似乎有些怪異,尤其是他所在的風險投資公司,通過向臉書和推特(Twitter)等公司投入數十億美元,幫助打造了我們今天所熟知的互聯網。
盡管迪克森身家豐厚、地位顯赫,但他的言談舉止卻十分悠閑。他建議我們在一家餐館見面,但他在翠貝卡最喜歡的那家餐館已經關門了,所以我在《財富》雜志辦公室附近找了一家。享用著一盤盛滿雞蛋、香腸和土豆的菜肴,他看起來更像一位大學教授,而不是風險投資巨頭。他的回答段落冗長,但當他對某個想法異常興奮時,也會提高音調。當我們走出門外,來到等候他的黑色SUV和司機面前時,他的學者形象就蕩然無存了。
迪克森說,他的職業生涯源于對開源軟件的熱愛,比如Unix操作系統。這也是區塊鏈吸引他的原因。他是一位多產的博客作者,大約在2009年,他開始撰寫關于互聯網中心化的文章。具體來說,他被程序員埃里克·雷蒙德(Eric Raymond)創造的"大教堂與集市"的比喻所吸引。在"大教堂"模式中,軟件被嚴格限制在內部開發人員的范圍內,這些開發人員通常受雇于一家公司,他們可以構建精致美觀的架構,但不對外界貢獻者開放。與此相反,集市則是開源的,熙熙攘攘而且沒有明確的秩序,但卻通過合作而變得充滿活力。
毋庸置疑,像推特和臉書這樣的平臺仍然試圖把自己打造成集市。它們邀請開發者在自己的平臺上開發應用程序,推特承諾支持簡易信息聚合(RSS),即另一種允許用戶關注不同網站和博客的開源協議。盡管如此,迪克森認為,它們的運作模式更像是大教堂模式,他當時寫道,自己擔心它們會關閉訪問。“問題在于推特并不是真正開放的。”他在2009年10月的博客中寫道。“在某種程度上,推特需要實現高額營收來證明自己的估值是合理的。”誠然,他的觀點是正確的。
與此同時,當年早些時候,化名為中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)的人發表了白皮書,向全世界介紹比特幣。迪克森并沒有立即改弦更張。中本聰最初將加密貨幣設想為一種新的貨幣形式,即比特幣所謂的用例是金融相關,而迪克森則更關心更廣泛的基礎設施協議。不過,他還是發現了區塊鏈的價值——一種新型網絡,可以分散所有權,由參與者管理,并由軟件實現運行。
作為天使投資人,迪克森進行了數年小額投資,影響力有限。2012年,他加入了a16z和風險投資大聯盟。他告訴我:“我想加入風險投資公司的唯一原因是,我可以更上一層樓,真正嘗試探索新計算運動。”
目前尚不清楚區塊鏈是否會成為未來。迪克森最早押注的是新興的加密貨幣交易所Coinbase(2013年領投),但他也投資了虛擬現實公司Oculus(后被Meta收購)和無人機初創公司Airware(已于2018年倒閉)。
他預計比特幣將以一種允許軟件開發人員添加新功能,并擴展區塊鏈用例的方式發展。比特幣團隊從未這么做過。相反,一個名為以太坊(Ethereum)的新區塊鏈于2015年推出,承諾允許程序員創建任何形式的去中心化應用程序。三年后,在迪克森的領導下,A16z推出了首只專為加密貨幣領域設立的風險基金。
‘高糖效應’
迪克森對區塊鏈的宣傳很簡單,這在他的書名中得到了很好的概括。第一代互聯網在早期協議和網絡瀏覽器等創新技術的推動下,使得我們能夠進行消費和讀取信息。第二代互聯網在臉書和蘋果(Apple)等公司網絡的推動下,使得我們可以創作和編寫自己的內容。第三代互聯網是由區塊鏈驅動的,因此,我們能夠掌控從決策到獲取收益的全過程。
例如,一個去中心化的社交媒體平臺將允許用戶對內容審核進行投票,并保持代碼開源,從而形成一個充滿活力的第三方應用生態系統。如果沒有廣告收入流向平臺,用戶實際上可以將自己的內容貨幣化,而代幣系統可以分配收益,并作為治理機制起到雙重作用。
能夠想象得到這樣的美好世界,但在比特幣出現超過15年后,這個世界仍未變成現實。這并不是因為缺乏嘗試。針對消費者的加密貨幣項目層出不窮,數十億美元的資金投入也讓這些項目大行其道。然而,加密貨幣仍未迎來“ChatGPT”時刻,即所謂的殺手級應用程序,助力其突破主流市場。
在加密貨幣領域,一個常見的說法是,我們還處于起步階段,畢竟普通人花了幾十年的時間才接觸到互聯網。第一篇關于人工神經網絡的論文發表于1943年,比ChatGPT的推出早了75年。迪克森承認,他常常超前布局。他在2009年創立了自己的第一家人工智能公司,但由于技術不達標,最終將公司賣給了eBay。
迪克森堅信“功能等價”,他認為加密應用程序只有在與非區塊鏈競爭對手一樣出色時才會流行起來。由于處理時間緩慢、費用通常過高以及長期存在的安全問題,這一天似乎還很遙遠。 他問道:“當交易成本為10美元時,你能開發出多少殺手級應用程序?”不過,迪克森表示,有一種"樂觀的設想",即區塊鏈的計算能力在未來12個月內達到充足水平。我問他,我們是否會像他的第一次人工智能賭博一樣,在十幾年后才能實現。 “我希望不會。”他笑著說。
與此同時,加密貨幣唯一受到追捧的方面就是投機性,從最近對比特幣現貨交易所交易基金的狂熱到FTX這樣的數字資產賭場。
a16z投資組合公司Uniswap Labs的首席運營官瑪麗-凱瑟琳·拉德(Mary-Catherine Lader)告訴我:“人們總是情不自禁地談論價格。金錢對人有吸引力。”
迪克森將加密貨幣投機熱潮描述為“高糖效應”。它不僅導致這一領域形象不佳,擠走了用戶,還讓他投資的公司感到挫敗,這些公司正試圖建立穩固的基礎架構。他告訴我:“街上還有其他人說,‘嘿,投擲一下狗狗幣Bonk。’”他指的是Solana區塊鏈上新近被炒得火熱的模因幣。“這引起了人們的關注。”
作為回應,迪克森扮演了一個不同尋常的風險投資人的角色,他花時間在華盛頓游說政府制定新法律來管理加密貨幣。和許多業內人士一樣,他認為美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)正在扼殺創新,原因是它在打擊像Solana這樣提供實用代幣的區塊鏈和像Coinbase這樣的本土公司,卻允許所謂的垃圾幣和離岸交易所蓬勃發展。
A16z加密貨幣基金聘請了前監管機構和政府工作人員,而迪克森本人也經常參與捐贈,OpenSecrets的公開數據顯示,他向十多位對加密貨幣友好的國會議員捐款。迪克森的老朋友、風險投資界傳奇人物羅恩·康韋(Ron Conway)告訴我:“與議員們會面是一項瑣碎而繁重的工作。大多數風險投資公司都對這種活動避而遠之。”
a16z的聯合創始人本·霍洛維茨(Ben Horowitz)告訴我,在看到Meta等大型科技公司在華盛頓施展影響力后,該公司決定加入游說行列。他告訴我:“這些擁有壟斷產品的強大公司在華盛頓非常活躍。如果沒有人代表小型科技公司,我們將面臨監管俘獲,創新速度將大幅放緩。”
風險投資領域視而不見的棘手問題
A16z成為去中心化網絡的擁護者,這對迪克森來說不無諷刺意味。憑借對愛彼迎(Airbnb)、臉書和推特等公司的投資,這家風險投資公司幫助引領了企業主導的互聯網時代,而迪克森現在正懇求我們繼續前行,進入第三代互聯網。
迪克森說:"我原以為互聯網會更加分散,但我想錯了。我們既不知道,也不想創建一個會導致風險投資消亡的體系,原因是這樣做會導致只有四家公司控制互聯網。"
據霍洛維茨估計,除了照片分享應用程序BeReal外,a16z基本上已經放棄了對Web2的投資,甚至在其加密貨幣基金之外的投資情況也是如此。(他沒有提到該公司還出資4億美元幫助埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)在2022年收購了推特。)霍洛維茨表示:"這就是做風險投資家的好處,你可以進行很多投資。"
雖然風險投資公司可以分散賭注,但就加密貨幣而言,一家大型風險投資公司的參與仍會引發人們的擔憂,擔心它會破壞區塊鏈去中心化的使命。與其他加密貨幣風險投資公司一樣,a16z在投資時經常收到代幣,而不是傳統股權,這意味著它可能會對項目的治理產生巨大影響。
這種擔憂引發了爭議,比如a16z支持了一項不受歡迎的提議,即Uniswap使用另一家投資組合公司LayerZero作為底層基礎架構,而不是使用競爭對手Wormhole。雖然a16z試圖通過辯稱它向學生社團和非營利組織分發代幣來轉移批評,但Crypto Twitter上憤怒的純粹主義者指責該公司明顯“擁有”Uniswap的開放協議。
拉德在Uniswap Labs工作,從技術上講,該公司與Uniswap協議是分開的,她表示自己不會與迪克森討論治理問題。不過,她還是認為,去中心化并不能保證所有權的平等分配,而是"公平、開放獲取"的指標。
另一個困擾加密貨幣風險投資的問題是,為了短期收益而拋售代幣的趨勢。在傳統風險投資中,公司持有投資數年,直到通過首次公開募股或收購退出。對于加密貨幣而言,代幣可以在短短一年內歸屬他人。
哥倫比亞大學商學院兼職教授奧米德·馬勒坎(Omid Malekan)說:"如果你是一名加密貨幣風險投資家,你的義務就是盡快套現。這種設計對大多數加密貨幣項目的長期可行性非常不利。”
迪克森承認,許多加密風險投資公司的運作方式更像是對沖基金,但他表示,他力主延長鎖定期,甚至幫助在擬議的加密貨幣立法中引入了這方面的條款。他告訴我:"短期激勵是一件非常危險的事情。”根據a16z發言人的說法,該加密貨幣基金仍持有其在私人市場交易中購買的全部代幣的94%。
對迪克森來說,更重要的問題是,加密貨幣項目是否需要風險規模的投資,以及隨之而來的期望。他打賭,a16z基金的接受者不僅將為下一代互聯網奠定基礎,還將收獲數十億美元。
當我問霍洛維茨時,他把這場賭博比作域名系統,即翻譯域名協議。他們并不是直接投資于公用事業,而是投資于代幣,這有點像風險投資公司在互聯網發展初期購買了大量的網址。他說:“我并不認為這之間存在緊張關系。”
學者馬勒坎則認為,近期的趨勢表明情況并非如此,尤其是當風險投資公司投資于基金會、實驗室、代幣和協議這些通常支撐加密貨幣項目的錯綜復雜的因素時。比特幣和以太坊等成功的技術幾乎不需要資金。他告訴我:"在加密貨幣領域,你幾乎可以說,取得成功與你籌集到的資金數量之間存在著很強的負相關。這不僅僅是取得一個項目的成功,你還必須像一家價值十億美元的公司那樣行事。"
雖然迪克森說,代幣是一種通過健康的投機(如房屋所有權)來推動參與的方式,但它們也可能輕易地重構出以利潤為導向有害激勵機制,而這種激勵機制正是我們當前互聯網的基礎。由a16z支持的Axie Infinity是一個突破主流市場的消費類加密貨幣項目,它刺激了扭曲的替代經濟,全球南方的勞動者們把積蓄投入到游戲中,并將其作為第二份工作。這款游戲的短暫成功可能是一次失敗的實驗,但它仍是風險投資支持、區塊鏈主導的未來的一個縮影。
目前,這還只是一個理論問題,我們在后視鏡中幾乎看不到班克曼-弗里德,而加密貨幣領域正在尋找一個立足點。眾所周知,迪克森不愿在媒體上露面,他避開了通常在美國全國廣播公司財經頻道(CNBC)和彭博電視之間進行的會議巡回和輪換,而這在他的同行中很常見。憑借《可讀-可寫-可擁有》,他正走出陰影,準備接過領導者的衣缽,為行業和非信徒開辟一條前進之路。也許,人們對a16z的成見并不能使他成為理想的信使,但他至少是一個令人信服的信使。
迪克森表示:“如果我們能夠取得成功,這似乎是一個極其巨大的機遇,其影響力也可見一斑,但往往事與愿違。順便提一下,這就是你賺錢的方式。”(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
In October 2022, just weeks before the collapse of FTX, Chris Dixon sat down to write a book about crypto. The venture capitalist and eternal optimist wanted to share a fresh vision for the technology he had come to love. Having founded startups in an earlier era of the internet, before the likes of Google and Facebook gobbled up every dollar, Dixon believed the decentralized promise of blockchain could reinvigorate the early building blocks of an open internet.
By the end of 2022, that vision was belied by an industry dominated by a casino mentality and defined by criminal hucksters like Sam Bankman-Fried. The failure of FTX felt like a turning point where, for many onlookers, crypto became synonymous with fraud.
“I was like, ‘Fuck, this is depressing,’ and then I felt sorry for myself,” Dixon told me over breakfast last week. “And then I was like, ‘I can look at this as a depressing moment, or I can look at it as an opportunity.’”
He had worked in tech for decades, as an entrepreneur building early AI companies, an angel investor, and then a partner at venture giant Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). He had never experienced as wide a rift in the public perception of his projects and his own understanding. “I could potentially try to close that gap,” he thought to himself.
The result is Read Write Own, a manifesto on the virtues of crypto that will likely become a combination of bible and self-help book for those who still share the view that blockchain technology will usher in the next age of the internet. The book, which will be released Jan. 30, is a lucid defense of an industry that has often become a parody to the outside world.
Though just 52, Dixon serves as a kind of elder statesman for crypto. He argues that blockchain can be more than “number go up” gambling and a plaything for self-described degens—it can be an apolitical software that saves the internet from its corporate overlords.
As the head of a16z’s crypto firm, Dixon is not just an armchair theorist. He has real skin in the game, to the tune of $7.6 billion of his investors’ money. His book is not just a treatise on the future of the web. It’s a call to arms for the survival of the industry.
The cathedral and the bazaar
Dixon thinks of the internet in terms of networks—not only how people connect, but how different technologies interact to build the infrastructure we know as the web.
Most of what we think of the internet today is owned and controlled by massive companies. Everything from WhatsApp to Gmail to the cloud computing services powering them is run by a handful of firms that not only dictate how the platforms operate but siphon nearly all the profits, felling entire industries from newspapers to travel agencies.
It wasn’t always that way. The early developers of the internet imagined more open networks that would be governed democratically, with decisions left in the hands of the people—or at least anyone who cared enough to be involved.
This vision still lives in the building blocks of the modern internet, through protocols like SMTP, which standardizes email communication, and HTTP, which helps computers talk to each other. Another, DNS, allows us to visit web pages with human-readable names, like Fortune.com, rather than a series of numbers.
These protocols are generally free or very cheap to use, and either open-source or managed by nonprofits tasked with maintenance rather than profit-seeking. Their existence is the reason that email isn’t controlled by Google, URLs by Amazon, or web surfing by Microsoft.
“I always detested Microsoft,” Dixon told me. It may seem an odd statement from one of the most powerful men in tech, and especially one who works at a venture firm that helped build the internet as we know it today by plowing billions of dollars into companies like Facebook and Twitter.
Despite his affluence and high profile, Dixon has a laid-back affect. He suggested we meet at a diner—his favorite spot in Tribeca had closed, so I found one near the Fortune office. Eating a plate of eggs, sausage, and potatoes, he seemed more like a college professor than a venture titan, speaking in paragraph-length answers that would rise in tenor as he became worked up over an idea. The academic persona was punctured when we stepped outside to his waiting black SUV and driver.
Dixon said his career has been driven by a love of open-source software, like the operating system Unix. It’s what drew him to blockchain. He is a prolific blogger, and around 2009, he began to write about the centralization of the internet. Specifically, he became transfixed by an analogy created by coder Eric Raymond called the “Cathedral and the Bazaar.” In the cathedral model, software is tightly restricted to an inner circle of developers, generally employed by a corporation, who can build elaborate and beautiful structures that are closed to outside contributors. The bazaar, in contrast, is open-source—hectic and without clear order, but alive through collaboration.
At the time, platforms like Twitter and Facebook still tried to style themselves as bazaars. They invited developers to build apps on their platforms, and Twitter pledged to support RSS, another open-source protocol that allows users to follow diverse websites and blogs. Still, Dixon understood that they functioned more like cathedrals, writing at the time of his fear they would cut off access. “The problem is Twitter isn’t really open,” he blogged in October 2009. “At some point, Twitter will need to make lots of money to justify their valuation.” He was right, of course.
Meanwhile, earlier that year, the pseudonymous figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto published his white paper introducing Bitcoin to the world. Dixon was not an immediate convert. Bitcoin’s purported use case is financial, with Nakamoto envisioning the original cryptocurrency as a new form of money, while Dixon cared more about broader infrastructure protocols. Still, he saw the value of blockchain—a new type of network whose ownership could be dispersed and governed by its participants and run by software.
After several years writing small checks as an angel investor where his influence was limited, Dixon joined a16z and the VC big leagues in 2012. “The only reason I wanted to go join a VC firm was if I could level up and really try to figure out the new computing movement,” he told me.
It wasn’t immediately clear that blockchain would be the future. One of Dixon’s first bets was on the nascent crypto exchange Coinbasein 2013, but he also made investments in the VR company Oculus, later acquired by Meta, and the drone startup Airware, which folded in 2018.
He expected Bitcoin to evolve in a way that would allow software developers to add new features and expand on blockchain’s use cases. The Bitcoin team never did. Instead, a new blockchain called Ethereum launched in 2015, with the promise of allowing coders to create any fashion of decentralized apps. A16z launched its first crypto-dedicated fund, headed up by Dixon, three years later.
‘Sugar high’
Dixon’s pitch for blockchain is simple—it’s summed up elegantly in the title of his book. The first era of the internet, facilitated by early protocols and innovations like the web browser, allowed us to consume—read—information. The second, driven by corporate networks like Facebook and Apple, allowed us to create—write—our own content. The third, driven by blockchain, will put us in charge, from making decisions to reaping the proceeds—own.
A decentralized social media platform, for example, would allow users to vote on content moderation and keep its code open-source to allow for a vibrant ecosystem of third-party apps. Without all of the ad revenue going to the platform, users could actually monetize their own content, and a token system could distribute earnings and serve a double purpose as a governance mechanism.
It’s a nice world to imagine, but one that has not come to pass more than 15 years after Bitcoin’s emergence. That’s not for lack of trying. There have been plenty of crypto projects aimed at consumers, and billions of dollars of capital plowed into making them catch on. And yet, crypto has still not had its “ChatGPT” moment—the so-called killer app that helps it break through to the mainstream.
A common refrain in crypto is that we’re in the early innings—that it took decades for everyday people to come to the internet. The first paper on artificial neural networks came in 1943, more than 75 years before the launch of ChatGPT. Dixon acknowledged that he is often too early on trends. He built his first AI company in 2009 and ended up selling it to eBay because of the subpar technology.
Dixon is a believer in “feature parity,” the idea that crypto apps will only catch on when they’re as good as their non-blockchain competitors. With slow processing times, often exorbitant fees, and perpetual security concerns, that day seems far off. “How many killer apps can you make when it costs $10 for a transaction?” he asked. Still, Dixon said, there’s an “optimistic scenario” where blockchain computing power is sufficient in the next 12 months. I asked if we could be over a decade away, as he was with his first AI gamble. “I hope not,” he said, laughing.
In the meantime, the only aspect of crypto that has caught on is speculation—from the recent fervor over the Bitcoin ETF to digital asset casinos like FTX.
“People can’t help themselves but talk about prices all the time,” Mary-Catherine Lader, COO of the a16z portfolio company Uniswap Labs, told me. “There’s a human draw to money.”
Dixon describes the crypto speculation frenzy as a “sugar high.” It not only creates a bad image for the space, crowding out users, but frustrates his portfolio companies that are trying to build unsexy infrastructure. “There’s other guys down the street saying, ‘Hey, flip Bonk,’” he told me, referring to a newly hyped memecoin on the Solana blockchain. “And that gets the attention.”
In response, Dixon has taken on an unusual role for a venture capitalist, spending time in D.C. to lobby for new laws to govern crypto. Like many in the industry, he believes that the Securities and Exchange Commission is stifling innovation by going after tokens like Solana that offer utility, and homegrown companies like Coinbase, while allowing so-called shitcoins and offshore exchanges to flourish.
A16z crypto has hired former regulators and political staffers, and Dixon himself is a prolific donor, with public data from OpenSecrets showing that he’s contributed to more than a dozen crypto-friendly members of Congress. “This is gritty, tedious work, meeting with lawmakers,” Ron Conway, the venture legend and Dixon’s longtime friend, told me. “Most venture firms shy away from this activity.”
Ben Horowitz, a cofounder of a16z, told me that the firm decided to enter lobbying after seeing big tech firms like Meta flex their influence in D.C. “These very powerful companies with monopoly products are very active in Washington,” he told me. “If nobody represents little tech, we’re going to get regulatory capture and a big slowdown in innovation.”
The venture elephant in the room
The irony that a16z has become a champion of a decentralized web is not lost on Dixon. With its investments in companies like Airbnb, Facebook, and Twitter, the venture firm helped shepherd in the corporate-owned internet era that Dixon is now pleading we move on from.
“I thought it would be much more fragmented, and I was wrong about that,” Dixon said. “We neither knew nor wanted to be creating a system that would also then lead to the demise of venture capital, because you’d have four companies controlling the internet.”
In Horowitz’s estimation, a16z has largely moved on from Web2 bets, even outside its crypto fund, except for the photo-sharing app BeReal. (He didn’t mention that the firm also contributed $400 million to help Elon Musk acquire Twitter in 2022.) “That’s the nice thing about being a venture capitalist,” Horowitz said. “You can place many investments.”
While VCs can spread their bets around, in the case of crypto, the participation of a massive venture firm still stokes fear that it could undermine blockchain’s mission of decentralization. Like other crypto VCs, a16z often receives tokens in lieu of traditional equity for its investments, meaning it could have an outsize influence in the governance of projects.
The concern has sparked controversy, such as when a16z backed an unpopular proposal for Uniswap to use LayerZero, another portfolio company, as underlying infrastructure, rather than a competitor named Wormhole. While a16z tried to deflect criticism by arguing it had distributed tokens to student clubs and nonprofits, outraged purists on Crypto Twitter accused the firm of “owning” Uniswap’s ostensibly open protocol.
Lader, who works for Uniswap Labs, which is technically separate from the Uniswap protocol, said she doesn’t discuss governance with Dixon. Still, she argued that decentralization isn’t a guarantee of equal distribution of ownership, but instead an indicator of “fair, open access.”
Another issue plaguing crypto VCs is the tendency to dump tokens for short-term gains. In traditional venture capital, firms hold on to investments for years until they exit, either through an IPO or acquisition. With crypto, tokens can vest in as little as a year.
“If you’re a crypto VC, your obligation is to cash out as soon as possible,” said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. “That design is very bad for the long-term viability of most crypto projects.”
Dixon acknowledged that many crypto VC firms operate more as hedge funds, but said that he pushes for longer lock-up periods—he even helped introduce a provision to this effect in proposed crypto legislation. “Short-term incentives are a very dangerous thing,” he told me. According to an a16z spokesperson, the crypto funds still hold 94% of all the tokens it has purchased in private market transactions.
The more existential question for Dixon is whether crypto projects need venture-scale investments and the expectations that come with them. He is betting that the recipients of a16z funds will not only serve as the foundation for the next generation of the internet but reap billions of dollars.
When I asked Horowitz, he compared the gamble to DNS, the protocol that translates domain names. They aren’t investing directly in the utility, but the tokens—sort of like if a venture firm had bought a slew of URLs in the early days of the web. “I don’t actually think there’s a tension there,” he said.
Malekan, the academic, argued that recent trends have demonstrated otherwise, especially as VCs invest in the knotted tangle of foundations, labs, tokens, and protocols that often undergird crypto projects. The ones that have succeeded, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, required little funding. “In crypto, you can almost argue there’s a very strong negative correlation between success and the amount of money that you raise,” he told me. “It’s not just succeeding as a project—you have to act like a billion-dollar company.”
While Dixon says that tokens are a way to drive participation through healthy speculation, like homeownership, they could just as easily re-create the harmful, profit-driven incentives that built our current internet. One consumer crypto project that broke through to the mainstream, the a16z-backed Axie Infinity, spurred a warped, alternate economy where workers in the Global South plowed their savings into the game and played it as a second job. The game’s brief success may have been an experiment gone awry, but it was still a glimpse into what a venture-backed, blockchain-dominated future could entail.
For now, it’s a theoretical question, with Bankman-Fried barely in our rearview mirrors and the crypto sector searching for a foothold. Dixon is notoriously media-shy, skirting the usual conference circuit and rotation between CNBC and Bloomberg TV that’s common among his peers. With Read Write Own, he is emerging from the shadows, ready to take the mantle of leadership and carve a path forward for both his industry and the nonbelievers. The baggage of a16z may not make him the ideal messenger, but he’s at least a compelling one.
“If we can make it work, it just seems like a very powerful and big opportunity, because it’s very contrarian,” Dixon said. “And by the way, that’s how you make money.”