高德思：說起來也有些突兀，但我在這里想特別提一下斯托克代爾悖論，因為這個悖論實在很有深度，可以應用到商界甚至更廣泛的領域。

吉姆·柯林斯：幾周前，我有幸去朋友組織的一個會議做演講，我的朋友在搞一個“積極訓練聯盟”。這是吉姆·湯普森創辦的一家非營利機構。會議主題是如何通過體育運動的積極訓練促進青年發展。由于這個組織最初成立于斯坦福大學內部，他問我是否愿意讓從前在斯坦福上過我課的學生來聽一下。我說這點子太棒了。結果我以前的那些學生把會議室給撐了個滿滿當當。有些還是八九十年代上我課的學生。太久不見了，看到他們，我激動極了。

聊天的時候我問了一句：“在這房間里，有多少人，自從我們上次見面起，或是自從畢業之后，在生活中被狠狠地打擊過？我是說，個人生活上的打擊、事業上的沖擊、或者生了一場什么病之類的，有人曾經遭受過這樣的打擊嗎？”

幾乎所有人都舉了手。哇哦！我和他們平均有15年沒見面了，盡管不同的人經歷的挫折不同，但我看得出在這么長一段生活中，人們多多少少都可能會受到打擊。所以，我認為人生境遇的本質注定了人偶爾要遭受打擊?？傆惺虑閷驌舻侥恪?/p>

這就該說到斯托克代爾悖論了。海軍上將吉姆·斯托克代爾闡述了這一悖論，日后人們就用他的名字命名這一理論。斯托克代爾是個名人，他并不知道他是我個人董事會中的一員，但我的確給他留了個位置。

斯托克代爾是“河內希爾頓”（Hanoi Hilton，北越戰俘營）軍銜最高的將領之一，身上擔負著指揮的重責，他也因此顯得特別堅毅。

我還記得，在有機會和他碰面之前，我曾讀過他寫的書《愛情與戰爭》。讀完他在戰俘營里那幾年的經歷后，我覺得很沮喪。 那么慘淡的生活，就好象他們隨時會把他拖去折磨一番。他和其他的戰俘都不知道自己這輩子能不能出去。突然間，我想到，天啊，寫這書的時候他還不知道結局會是怎樣。我是知道結尾的，我知道他最終獲釋了。但他是書的主人公啊，他并不知道自己的結局，怎么能毫無沮喪地記敘這樣的生活呢？我只是讀一下就已經讀得很郁悶了。

后來我就當面問了他。他說，我從來沒有陷入過一般意義上的那種絕望狀態，因為對于我的信念，我從未動搖，我相信自己不僅一定可以出去，而且還能借此經歷徹底改變我的人生。他的這些話，因為內容不太合適的關系，我沒有寫進《從優秀到卓越》里，但聽來卻非常有意思。他說，他悟出了自由是什么。自由和人的境遇無關，而是在這里。他開始指向校園里的路人。

Thomas D. Gorman: It's not a direct segue, but I have been meaning to bring up the Stockdale Paradox, because I think it's such a profound insight that you've developed and perhaps you could just elaborate on it in the business context and perhaps more broadly.

Jim Collins: A few weeks ago I had the privilege to do a session for a friend of mine that runs a thing called The Positive Coaching Alliance. Jim Thompson, who had, it's a great non-profit, it's basically around the idea that you can develop young people through positive coaching in sports. As part of that, it's based out of Stanford. He asked if I'd like to have a session with a number of my former students who had been in my classes at Stanford. I thought that would fabulous. A large number of my former students showed up, a full room of former students. And it was great to see them, some of them my students back from 1980's, 1990's whatever. So, they are all there and I haven't seen many of these people for a long time.

And, I at one point in the conversation I just said, "how many of you in this room, since we last saw each other or since you graduated, have just gotten crushed by something in life? I mean, I don't know, whatever it is, personal, professional, disease, whatever, but life just came up and it just crushed you?"

Every single hand in that room went up. Wow. And as I talked with them, it's different for different people, but, everybody, 15-year average since I'd seen them, the probability is that you're going to get crushed by something. So, I think the nature of the human condition is, sometimes life's going to come up and it's going to crush you. Something is going to crush you.

That brings us to the Stockdale Paradox. Admiral Jim Stockdale, who we named it after, is the one who really crystallized the idea. Stockdale was somebody; he never knew he was on my personal board of directors. But, he was one that I had a spot for.

Stockdale had been the highest-ranking military officer in Hanoi Hilton. He had the burden of command, which sort of added to his strength.

And I remember reading his book In Love and War before I had a chance to meet him. And I got depressed reading the book because it's about the years he spent in the prison camp. And I realized it just seemed so bleak, they could pull him out anytime and torture him. He and the other prisoners didn't know if they would ever get out. And all of a sudden I realized, my goodness, he didn't know the end of the story. I know that he gets out, I know the end of the story. He doesn't know the end of the story, he's living it, how did he not just get depressed, when even I am depressed just reading it.

And that's when I asked him and he said, I never got depressed in the conventional sense, because I never wavered in my faith that I would not only get out, but I would turn this into a defining event in my life. And something we didn't put in Good to Great because it just didn't fit in, but I thought was very interesting. He said how much he learned about what freedom is. And he said, freedom is not your condition, it's in here, he started pointing to people on campus.

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Jim Collins: And he said, you see that gentleman, he's imprisoned by tenure, he'd really like to do something else, but he's imprisoned by that. That young woman over there is imprisoned by her parents' expectations that she should become a doctor.

And he said, I kept my freedom in here even though I had lost my physical freedom, but I would have never known that, had I not lost my physical freedom.

Then as we went further into the walk that day, I asked him, who didn't make it out of the prison as strong as him. And he said, it was the optimists. And I was very confused, because he sounded optimistic. I'm going to get out!

No, no, no I wasn't optimistic I had just never lost faith that I would turn this into a defining event when I got out of this. But, the optimists are the ones who said we'd be out by Christmas. And Christmas would come and go and they'd say "by Thanksgiving" and then "by Christmas" again, and they eventually died of a broken heart.

And, he really did, he grabbed me by the shoulders and he said, this is what I learned, you must never ever waiver in your faith that you will prevail, and you must at the same time confront the brutal facts that you face if we're not out of here by Christmas.Stockdale returned from the camp and went and studied the Stoic philosophers like Seneca, and others at the Hoover Institute.

Making sense of his experience, but this was his lesson, this was his learning, this was what we called the Stockdale Paradox. And I have, my wife has, people I know have, and if you're going to get crushed someday, and you will if you live long enough. If you're lucky enough to live long enough you're going to be unlucky. That's when the Stockdale Paradox, you have to have it, you have to have both sides. If you think it's going to be over by Christmas, it's probably not going to be. And if you lose faith, you're going to get, you're never going to get out. It's a very, very powerful learning.

Thomas D. Gorman: All right. Jim, I want to thank you, very much indeed, on my behalf as well as the rest of our colleagues at Fortune China. And all our audience in China, this has been very, very enlightening and we deeply appreciate your contribution.

Jim Collins: I appreciate it, it's a privilege actually and I really hope to see many great companies come out of China.

Thomas D. Gorman: I think you will. Very good.