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第二十八講:攀巖感悟(1)

第二十八講:攀巖感悟(1)

《財富》(中文版) 2011-04-22
攀巖所帶來的后果是真實的。它也是個解決問題的過程。攀巖還是少數幾個你的命運完全掌握在合作伙伴手中的運動之一。攀巖使吉姆·柯林斯懂得安全、保守的做法反而能夠增加速度和沖勁。

高德思吉姆,我們來談談攀巖吧。你是個攀巖愛好者,我對此有點好奇。我自己喜歡飛釣,覺得飛釣中學到的經驗常常可以用到工作上,我想攀巖對你應該也是如此吧。但我不太了解攀巖,你給我們講講吧。

吉姆·柯林斯我十三歲左右就開始攀巖了。當時是繼父強行幫我報的班,我還記得自己被拖去上課時哭著喊著說寧可去學習之類的。不過,學了第一天后,我就無可救藥地愛上了攀巖。我覺得自己之所以熱愛攀巖,是因為我明白,它所帶來的后果是真實的。那時候電子游戲剛出來沒幾年,我的朋友們都去商場打游戲,或是玩些很“潮”的東西。而我卻在攀巖,玩兒真的,有人真因為攀巖而喪命。地心引力才不管你今天過得順不順,該不該倒霉,地心引力永遠存在。這種運動的殘酷性卻偏偏吸引了我,我也不知道為什么,但我就是喜歡。

再有,攀巖是個解決問題的過程,你還能欣賞壯觀的美景。還有一點,攀巖是少數幾個你的命運完全掌握在合作伙伴手中的運動之一。如果同伴放手,你就可能喪命,對吧?攀巖時,你們彼此的確生死與共,你們的命運系在同一根繩子上。這些都是攀巖的魅力。

在我后來的生活中,攀巖仍然是很重要的一部分。我開始發現這些攀巖中學到的道理同樣適用于工作及生活的其他方面。甚至有一些對我可謂影響至深。其中一條就是通過攀巖,我深刻認識到了事件發生的概率和結果之間的區別。讓我具體解釋一下這點。

我們在商學院里學過期望值的概念,這是一個非常有影響力的概念。我自己是學數學的,所以很相信期望值。事件發生的概率乘以事件的價值,就是該事件的期望值。所以,假設我有百分之一的可能性得到100美元的收益,我的期望值就是一美元。但是,假設你有百分之一的可能性得到負無窮的結果呢?那你該怎么評估收益?這百分之一的可能性會帶來巨大的災難。這時候期望值理論就不適用了,你得考慮風險的切實后果。

攀巖時,你知道可能發生哪些情況,哪些情況則不太可能出現。于是就決定冒險??墒?,一旦你背運,后果可能是萬劫不復。你要么摔瘸了,要么摔死了,你所犯的錯誤是無法彌補的,不會有機會說,我下次不這么干了。

現在,我們回顧一下金融危機。有意思的是,各個因素加總起來考慮,金融危機發生的概率似乎很小。但是危機一旦發生,后果卻極其嚴重。在這種情況下,你必須采取不一樣的做法,導致你的杠桿比率過高。哦,雖然出問題的幾率很小,但一旦厄運真的落到你頭上,后果會有多嚴重呢?你會撞巖石架嗎?我是說,你會傷得多重呢?所以在攀巖時,人們所說的風險是真正的底線,是最嚴重的后果。這和金融領域對風險的理解不同,不是指波動性。

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Thomas D. Gorman: Jim, let's talk a little bit about rock climbing, you're a passionate rock climber and I'd be curious, I'm a fly fishermen and I can see applications and learning from fly fishing that can apply to business, I'm sure there's a lot in rock climbing as well. I don't know much about rock climbing, so you'll have to educate us.

Jim Collins: Well, climbing has been part of my life since I was 13 or so years old. And my stepfather signed me up for a climbing class against my will. I think I remember being dragged off to the class and whining something like I'd rather study. Anyway, after the first day, I totally had fallen in love with climbing. And I think the reason I fell in love with climbing is that the consequences are very real. So, my friends would be hanging out at the mall playing video games, early days of video games, or whatever happened to be "in". I was in a situation where, it's real and people die doing this and gravity doesn't care if you've had a good day or a bad day, doesn't care if you deserve to be caught or not, it just doesn't care and it's there all the time. So, the unforgiving nature of it, just kind of somehow appealed to me, I don't know why, it just did.

Plus the problem solving aspect of it, the fact that you can see some incredibly beautiful places, the fact is, it's one of the few activities where your life is literally in the hands of your partner. And if your partner drops you, you could die, right? You are truly with each other, tied together by a piece of rope..., all these wonderful things about climbing.

But, as I went on with other parts of my life, climbing is still a big part of my life. I've begun to see these back and forth lessons from climbing to business to other walks of life. And a few of them, kind of, jump out to me. One is that is really being clear on the difference between the probability of events and consequence of events. Let me explain what I mean by this.

We're taught in business school the idea of expected value, and it's actually a very powerful idea. I come from a math background, I believe in expected value. You take the probability of the event and multiply it times the value of that event and you have the expected value of that event. So, if I have a one percent chance of a $100 payoff, I've got an expected value of one dollar. But let's suppose, you have a situation where you have a one percent chance of an infinite negative. How do you assess that? You got a one percent chance that is truly catastrophic. There the concept of expected value doesn't apply, but you have to think about risk in terms of the real consequences of what happens.

And so, in climbing you learn yeah, there may be, there's certain kinds of things, well, it's unlikely that X will happen. I'll take this extra risk here. But, if it goes against you, it's the type of thing you may never get a chance to learn from again. Because you're crippled, or you're dead and if you make certain kinds of mistakes, you don't get to recover from them, and say, oh, I'll do it different next time.

But now, when we stand back and we think about, for example, everything that's just happened in the financial crisis. It's very interesting, you start adding up all the pieces and you kind of say, ok wait a minute, we may have a low probability event, but a low probability event with a really, really big negative consequence. That has to be managed differently, so you have excess leverage ratios. Oh, the probability that it was going to turn against us was relatively low, but what happens if it actually does? Do you hit a ledge? I mean, how badly can you get hurt? So, I think in climbing that sense of thinking of risk, in terms of the real bottom line, the big consequence, which is very different from what you see in finance, you don't think of risk as volatility.

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