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香港：有關(guān)信任價(jià)值的思考
不久前，我在香港四季酒店主持了美國商會(huì)年會(huì)的首個(gè)分論壇討論。
此次年會(huì)以“香港在中國新一輪改革中的作用”為題，而我所在分論壇的主題是“中國新商業(yè)環(huán)境下的經(jīng)營之道”。
這兩個(gè)議題都很貼近時(shí)勢(shì)。
原因有三。首先，中國和世界都在焦急等待中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)金融及資本市場(chǎng)改革的政策導(dǎo)向；其次，已有明確跡象表明香港的作用正在發(fā)生改變；第三，中國的商業(yè)環(huán)境已經(jīng)發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變，而且還將持續(xù)下去。
回想去年年會(huì)的主題是“香港在中國‘十二五’計(jì)劃中的作用”，非常應(yīng)景。因?yàn)椤笆濉笔鞘状螌⑾愀酆桶拈T納入其中的五年計(jì)劃。很多讀者都知道，十二五計(jì)劃將截止于2015年。
1993年，香港美國商會(huì)召開了首屆年會(huì)，主題是“大中華區(qū)的商業(yè)機(jī)遇”。我不僅出席了那次年會(huì)，還有幸參與了主題的選定。當(dāng)年，“大中華區(qū)”還是個(gè)全新的商業(yè)詞匯，只有少數(shù)跨國企業(yè)為這個(gè)新劃定的區(qū)域設(shè)立了業(yè)務(wù)單元。外企高管都好奇未來會(huì)產(chǎn)生哪些影響。而中國官員最初對(duì)這個(gè)詞還有些敏感，后來就慢慢克服了。
1993年外國對(duì)華直接投資剛剛起步，中國對(duì)外出口也處在井噴前夜。那年，青島啤酒成為在香港IPO的第一家中國內(nèi)地企業(yè)。彼時(shí)，離香港回歸還有5年，大部分中國大型國有企業(yè)都臃腫不堪，經(jīng)營不善。
青島啤酒的上市大獲成功，共籌得8.89億港元，但和之后中國工商銀行IPO籌得的160億美元相比，真是小巫見大巫。如今，在港交所上市的內(nèi)地企業(yè)已接近750家，占市場(chǎng)資本總額的2/3以上。
所以，就中國經(jīng)商環(huán)境僅20年間發(fā)生的巨變展開討論，一點(diǎn)也不為過。展望未來，居民城鎮(zhèn)化、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施擴(kuò)張、經(jīng)濟(jì)向消費(fèi)型轉(zhuǎn)變將成為引領(lǐng)變革的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?/p>
香港美國商會(huì)當(dāng)天的日程安排得宜，除兩位著名嘉賓發(fā)表主旨演講外，其余都是分組討論，參與者眾，交流坦誠而富有意義。會(huì)議有合作媒體出席，內(nèi)容公開對(duì)外發(fā)布。與會(huì)代表、分論壇嘉賓以及演講人包括政府高官、企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖和學(xué)者。
現(xiàn)在想要在中國其他城市取得這樣的會(huì)議效果并不容易。
當(dāng)天，會(huì)議還著重討論了香港在人民幣國際化中與日俱增的作用。一位著名的中國銀行業(yè)代表表示，目前的形勢(shì)比較復(fù)雜混亂，急需有效的溝通機(jī)制。
談及香港角色的轉(zhuǎn)變，大家似乎都同意跨國企業(yè)及內(nèi)地企業(yè)都開始以新的方式對(duì)香港加以利用。
中國企業(yè)不再把香港單純視作籌集資金的踏板，而是越來越多地看到它在人才和專業(yè)知識(shí)上對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)全球化戰(zhàn)略的輔助作用。
而跨國企業(yè)也在尋求利用香港的新模式。
會(huì)上舉了幾個(gè)例子，都是關(guān)于著名跨國企業(yè)把負(fù)責(zé)全球事務(wù)——包括全球或地區(qū)責(zé)任——的頂級(jí)高管安排在香港的事情。這是一個(gè)新動(dòng)向，耐人尋味。
總之，香港處在一切行動(dòng)的核心，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施極具吸引力，且效率較高（當(dāng)然空氣污染的確需要改善）。
另一個(gè)例子是，跨國企業(yè)正忙于應(yīng)對(duì)如何為快速發(fā)展的眾多內(nèi)地城市提供有效服務(wù)的挑戰(zhàn)，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)上海也許并非設(shè)立華南和西南服務(wù)基地的最佳地點(diǎn)。
這是自1993年來發(fā)生的又一起重大變化，當(dāng)年面向消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)的外國企業(yè)只注重中國的四座城市：北京、上海、深圳、廣州。20年過去，四大市場(chǎng)已被400多座城市包圍，其它城市也在迎頭追趕。
跨國企業(yè)普遍感覺，雖然中國內(nèi)地仍對(duì)國外投資者抱歡迎態(tài)度，但與以往相比，這種歡迎已變得有選擇、有條件和有保留，而且面對(duì)的國內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也更加激烈。
相比之下，跨國企業(yè)在香港的經(jīng)營一如既往，那里的透明度以及大部分政府商業(yè)相關(guān)政策的可預(yù)測(cè)性都相對(duì)較高，法制及反腐制度健全，稅制富有吸引力，移民政策合理，勞動(dòng)力生產(chǎn)力高。
還有一個(gè)難以用價(jià)值衡量卻極富價(jià)值的因素就是信任。個(gè)人或組織信任別人的意愿與規(guī)則的執(zhí)行效力緊密關(guān)聯(lián)，確保了受法律約束的承諾都會(huì)被兌現(xiàn)。在這方面，香港的相關(guān)體制仍保持著較高的可信任度。
那天的討論提振了我對(duì)香港的信心。困難和陷阱固然很多，但我比較樂觀，認(rèn)為香港有能力、并且會(huì)以對(duì)自身和中國其他地區(qū)都有利的方式應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)。 |
Hong Kong: Reflections on the Value of Trust
The other day I chaired the first panel discussion at the annual Amcham Hong Kong China Conference at the Four Seasons Hotel.
The conference theme was "Hong Kong's Role in China's Next Round of Reforms", and our panel was entitled "Managing in China's New Business Landscape."
Both are timely topics.
First, because China and the world are anxiously awaiting new policy directions from China's new leadership relating to financial and capital market reforms. Second, because clear signs are emerging that Hong Kong's role is changing. And third, China's business landscape has changed dramatically and will continue to do so.
Thinking back to last year's conference theme, it was "Hong Kong's Role in China's 12th Five Year Plan". This seemed timely, since #12 is the first Five Year Plan that included Hong Kong and Macau. As many readers will be aware, 2015 is the final year in that plan.
Thinking back to the first Amcham Hong Kong China conference, in 1993, the theme was "Business Opportunities in the Greater China Region." I was involved, and had a hand in selecting this theme. At the time, the term "Greater China" was brand new to the business lexicon. Only a handful of multinational companies had yet restructured to define this region as a new business unit. Foreign business execs were curious about what the future implications would be. There was, however, some initial sensitivity about this term among Chinese officials. Later, they got over it.
Foreign direct investment in China was just ramping up in 1993, and Chinese exports were in an early stage of their big boom era. That year, Qingdao Beer became the first mainland Chinese company to do an IPO in Hong Kong. Hong Kong was less than 5 years away from the handover. Most of China's big State-Owned Enterprises were bloated and in very poor health.
Qingdao's listing was considered very successful, raising HK$ 889 million, but it would later be dwarfed by subsequent Chinese IPOs such as ICBC's, with US$16 billion raised. Today, nearly 750 mainland companies are listed on the Hong Kong Exchange, representing more than 2/3 of the market capitalization.
So it's surely no exaggeration to talk about how the China business landscape has undergone dramatic changes in just 20 years. Looking forward, the ongoing pace of migration to urban centers, phenomenal expansion of basic infrastructure,and shift in balance to a consumption-lead economy will be some of the key drivers of change.
One of the benefits of the style of the Amcham Hong Kong one-day conference is that apart from two distinguished keynote speakers, the rest of the program is panel discussions with a lot of audience involvement. This enables frank and meaningful dialogue. Members of the working press were present, and the session was on the record. Delegates, panelists and speakers included senior government officials, corporate leaders, and academics.
Achieving the same outcome would be very challenging in other Chinese cities at the present time.
During the day there was much discussion on Hong Kong's growing role in the internationalization of the RMB. One distinguished Chinese banker commented that the current situation is complex and confusing, highlighting the need for a more effective communications program.
As for Hong Kong's changing role, there seems to be a consensus that both international companies and mainland Chinese companies are beginning to use Hong Kong in new ways.
Chinese companies are increasingly looking to Hong Kong not only as a staging point for raising capital, but for talent and expertise to assist with going global strategies.
International companies are looking to use Hong Kong in several new ways.
A number of examples were cited of major international companies basing very senior executives with global responsibilities -- either overall corporate responsibilities or divisional ones -- in Hong Kong. That's new and interesting.
After all, Hong Kong is in the center of the action and has very attractive and efficient infrastructure (although we have a clear need to improve on the air pollution front).
Another example cited is that with international companies wrestling with the challenge of effectively servicing a fast-growing number of mainland cities, some have found that Shanghai may not be the ideal base from which to service large parts of South and Southwest China.
This is another example of the big changes since 1993, when foreign consumer marketers were essentially focused on only four Chinese cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Twenty years later, the majors are in entrenched in 400 cities, and others are playing a furious game of catch-up.
There is a sense among international business that while the welcome mat for foreign investors on the Chinese mainland is still there, it is a more selective, conditional and partial welcome than it once was, and there are much more powerful competing domestic interests at work.
By contrast, in Hong Kong it's business as usual, with a relatively high degree of transparency and predictability in most areas of government policy as relates to business, a solid rule of law and anti-corruption regime in place, attractive tax and reasonable immigration policies, and a highly productive work force.
Another thing which is hard to put a value on, yet which is immensely valuable, is trust. The willingness to trust others, individually or organizationally, is closely intertwined with the efficacy of rules, enforcement and institutions which are responsible for ensuring that legally binding commitments are honored. In this respect, Hong Kong still benefits from relatively high level of perceived trust in its relevant systems.
The full-day discussion left me more bullish on Hong Kong than I had been. Sure, challenges and pitfalls are many, but I for one am optimistic. I think Hong Kong can and will rise to the challenge in ways that are beneficial for Hong Kong as well as the rest of China. |
