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中國的英語教育
最近我關注了一下英語作為第一外語在中國的情況，發現英語教育市場的規模，就像中國很多其他事情一樣，數字都大得驚人。
首先，一個普遍認可的估計值是，中國目前英語學習者總數有3億之多，只比美國總人口數少1億。
這其中即包括教授英語的私立學校，也包括公立學校。還有一點需要特別關注的是，提供英語教學、輔導或是（SAT、托福、GRE、GMAT）考前培訓的私立學校規模十分龐大，增速極其迅猛，使今年的市場規模達到了45億美元，這個增長速度已超過了中國GDP。
眼下在中國，大約有50,000所私立英語學校，其中大多數是小型或地方性的、區域性的學校。在競爭激烈的英語外語教育和應試教育領域中，占主導地位的是三家全國性機構：在紐約證交所上市的中國新東方公司、瑞典私人企業英孚教育、培生集團旗下的華爾街英語。這塊陣地是英語外語教學的高端市場，它的消費者需要支付高昂的學費，參加由訓練有素的英語母語教師執教的班級課程，并使用專業水平的教材。
假如你覺得這個行業“看上去很美”，請一定要三思。2009年，有三家在中國頗具知名度的英語學校都遭遇了破產，空留眾多中國學子預付了學費，卻無學可上。其中的問題之一就是行業的市場準入門檻相對較低，吸引了各路人馬參與，也包括一些由于資金緊張或其他原因缺乏持久能力的玩家。
目前，在中國境內授課的英語母語教師僅有5,000人，導致師生比例達到駭人聽聞的1：60,000。當然，這個數字還只是個假設，因為大部分學習英語的中國人都沒有機會接觸到以英語為母語的老師。
如果你去中國的任意一家書店，都會看到在英語自學教材、教學項目和教學工具的柜臺前聚集著大批消費者。而面向中國讀者的英語學習雜志就超過了幾十種，分別針對不同年齡段的人群。
在網絡和手機上，也有很多花里胡哨的英語自學和提高產品，大多價格低廉，甚至是免費的。其中有些是中國產品，也有些來自BBC、美國之音、澳大利亞廣播網等國際渠道。
是什么讓中國人對英語學習如此癡迷呢？
20到30年前，浪漫、熱情和好奇三者交織也許是花錢學習英語的最大動因。但如今的消費者主要是沖著非常實用的目的：通過考試、考?。▏鴥群蛧猓└玫膶W校、找到更好的工作。
想一想，這倒也不足為怪。因為無論是在教育市場還是就業市場，中國現在的機會都比20年前要多得多，但有實力抓住這些機遇的人也在增多，導致競爭十分激烈。
這種趨勢的攀升也讓越來越多的富裕家庭父母開始送孩子出國念大學、甚至念中學。而就在不久以前，中國留學生出國就讀的還大多是研究生。
近幾年，就業市場出現了嚴重的斷層。入門級崗位有太多的大學畢業生競爭極少的合適機會，但高級人才崗位又難覓合格的人才。
有一點可以肯定的是，無論潛在的雇主是國企還是外企，都要求員工具備良好的中英文水平，企業也愿意為這類人才支付相應的報酬。所以年輕的中國白領，或者希望成為白領的人才會繳納高額的學費，去高檔私立英語學校學習。對他們來說，這是一種只賺不賠的個人投資，比買股票或是存錢回報都更高。
我覺得這個投資策略很高明。
往后看，從現在的報名入學趨勢推算，以及對未來中國高級英語學生總數進行一番預測，都不難看出，在不久的將來，這一群體的數量將超過澳大利亞的人口總數（目前為2,150萬）。
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English as a Second Language in China
I recently took a look at English as a Second Language in China. Like so many things in China, the numbers relating to the size of the ESL market are somewhat staggering.
To begin with, the generally accepted estimate of the total number of people studying English in China is 300 million, which is just 10 million less than the total population of the United States.
This includes private as well as public schools which teach English. Looking specifically at the large and fast-growing sector of private schools providing ESL instruction, tutoring, or test preparation services (e.g. SAT, TOEFL, GRE, GMAT etc.), this market is about US$4.5 billion in size this year, and expanding much faster than China's rate of GDP growth.
There are something like 50,000 private English schools in China, most of which are small and either local or regional. Three national-level players dominate the highly competitive private ESL instruction and test-preparation field, NYSE-listed Chinese company New Oriental, privately owned Swedish company EF Education First, and Pearson PLC's Wall Street Institute. This is the premium end of the ESL market, where consumers pay high tuitions for a classroom-centered product with highly-trained native English teachers and professional quality curricular materials.
If it looks like an easy business to succeed in, think again. Three fairly high-profile ESL schools in China went bankrupt in 2009, leaving lots of Chinese students without the lessons they had paid in advance for. Part of the problem is that market entry barriers in this sector are fairly low, which attracts all sorts of players, including some who lack staying power due to insufficient capital or for other reasons.
There are only 5,000 native speakers of English teaching English in Chinese classrooms, yielding a fairly daunting student-teacher ratio of 60,000 to 1. This is obviously a hypothetical number, because the vast majority of English learners in China simply do not have access to teachers who are native speakers.
Visit any Chinese bookstore, and you will see a large concentration of consumers in the sections offering ESL self-study books, programs, and gadgets. There are more than a dozen magazines specializing in English learning content for Chinese consumers, aimed at various different age groups.
In the online and mobile space, there is a dazzling array of self-study and ESL improvement products on offer, mostly at very low prices or free of charge, from domestic Chinese as well as international sources such as the BBC, Voice of America, Australian Broadcast Network, etc.
What's driving this extraordinary love affair with English study in China?
Romance, passion and curiosity probably loomed large in the consumers' motivation towards ESL study 20-30 years ago, but today's consumers are mainly driven by very pragmatic goals: passing tests, gaining admission to better schools (at home and abroad), and getting better jobs.
This is not surprising when you think about it, because whether in education or the job market, there are vastly more opportunities in China than there were 20 years ago, but also a hyper-competitive rush by more and more qualified people to seize those opportunities.
Some of the trends this has given rise to include more affluent parents sending their children overseas for undergraduate, and even secondary studies; whereas until recently the vast majority of overseas students from China were at the graduate level.
In the job market, serious disconnects have emerged in recent years. At the entry level, far too many college graduates are chasing too few appropriate jobs. At the higher level, there is a serious shortage of qualified staff.
One thing is for sure, whether prospective employers are Chinese companies or international ones, they all want employees with good English and Chinese skills, and are willing to compensate such people accordingly. That's why young white collar Chinese, or white collar wannabes, are able to justify paying high tuition rates for premium level private ESL instruction. To them, it's a personal investment with almost sure-fire returns, much more so than buying equities or putting funds on deposit.
I think that's a smart investment strategy.
Looking down the road, extrapolating from current enrollment trend lines and forecasting the future size of China's population of advanced learners of English, it's not difficult to foresee the day in the not so distant future when the size of this group will surpass the total population of Australia (current population: 21.5 million). |
