????只有遭遇颶風桑迪這樣級別的災害之后,部分知名的政客才會開始討論氣候變化的影響。在經歷了這次造成嚴重人員傷亡以及大約500億美元財產損失的風暴潮后，紐約州州長安德魯?科莫表示，紐約州必須考慮圍繞紐約市建造一系列海堤——成本至少達到100億美元。在最近的一篇社論中，紐約市市長邁克爾?布隆伯格重提很多氣候科學家和專家一直以來強調的觀點：現在要扭轉全球變暖的負面后果已經來不及了；正如一位領先的對沖基金經理告訴我的，我們最多能做的就是“適應它”。

????這意味著改變自己：重新設計我們的港口，管理我們的海岸線，以及建設我們的建筑和交通系統從而限制更加頻繁和更具威力的颶風所造成的損害。羅森茲威格是美國國家航空航天局戈達德空間研究中心（NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies）資深研究科學家，同時也是一個名為“紐約市應對氣候變化專門委員會”（New York City Panel on Climate Change）的咨詢委員會的聯席主席。他說像雨水溝這么簡單的東西經設計后就可以用來將地鐵、鐵路和污水處理廠的淹水最小化。9.11之后，高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）在設計其位于曼哈頓下城的新總部時，安裝了一套強大的發電機，盡管它所處的樓層非常高，足以避開最近發生的洪水災害。眾所周知，荷蘭人正面臨海平面上升的威脅，他們現在設計的公寓大廈可以抵御大量的水流進出建筑的情況。

????除了重新考慮建設方式之外，我們還應該重新考慮在哪里建設。聯邦洪水保險（Federal flood insurance）補貼那些在颶風襲擊后重建家園的屋主和企業主，這已經耗費了美國納稅人數十億美元。如果取消聯邦洪水保險，私營市場在制定保險價格時將更加現實（因此也會更高），容易遭受襲擊的海岸線地區可能會因此遭遇發展方面的制約。

????最極端的補救辦法是建設水閘來防御風暴潮。全球很多城市，包括倫敦、新加坡和鹿特丹，都建立了類似的水閘。紐約市可能非常需要建造自己的水閘，但是除了費用高昂外，這些水閘還會帶來很多問題。例如，工程師設計建筑的標準通常是能夠應對百年一遇的災害。根據美國宇航局的羅森茲威格，在紐約市巴特里公園（Battery Park）地區，8.6英尺高的洪水就被認定為百年一遇。超級颶風桑迪達到10.6英尺高，屬于500年一遇的級別。此外，建設海堤以保護曼哈頓僅僅可能將洪水引到這個城市其他未受保護的區域，加劇這些地區的災害程度。而且，目前并不清楚這類水利工程會對本地區的漁業和河口產生什么環境影響。

????調整自己以適應新的常態將耗費全球企業和政府數千億美元的資金，但是與桑迪和卡特里娜等颶風所造成的損害相比，這或許更為劃算。然而，這個問題有光明的一面：準備重新審視、重新建設我們脆弱的基礎設施的企業業務將會非常繁忙。

????翻譯：秋閑

????It took a disaster on the scale of Hurricane Sandy to finally get some high-profile politicians talking about the impact of climate change. In the wake of a heavy death toll and an estimated $50 billion in damage from the storm surge, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo argued that the state must consider building a series of seawalls around New York City -- at a cost of at least $10 billion. In a recent editorial, Mayor Michael Bloomberg echoed what many climate scientists and experts have been saying for some time now: It's too late to reverse the negative consequences of global warming; the best we can do, as one leading hedge fund manager told me, is "get used to it."

????This means adaptation: redesign our ports, manage our coastlines, and construct our buildings and transportation systems to limit the damage caused by more frequent and more powerful storms. Cynthia Rosenzweig, a senior research scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who co-chairs an advisory board called the New York City Panel on Climate Change, says that something as simple as a storm drain could be engineered to minimize subway, rail, and sewage-treatment-plant flooding. After 9/11, Goldman Sachs (GS) designed its new headquarters in lower Manhattan with a set of powerful electrical generators on a floor high enough to be safe from the recent floodwaters. The Dutch, who know about living close to rising seas, are designing apartment towers that allow for massive water flow into, and out of, the structures.

????Besides rethinking how we build, we have to rethink where we build. Federal flood insurancesubsidizes home and business owners who rebuild after a storm, and that has cost U.S. taxpayers billions. By eliminating federal flood insurance, the private market will price policies more realistically (and thus higher), which would limit development along vulnerable coasts.

????The most extreme remedy would be to construct sea gates to ward off storm surges. Many cities around the world, including London, Singapore, and Rotterdam, have such gates. New York City may well need to build its own, but they present many problems besides their high cost. For example, engineers usually design a structure to handle a one-in-100-year event. According to NASA's Rosenzweig, in New York City's Battery Park neighborhood an 8.6-foot flood height is designated as a one-in-100-year event. Superstorm Sandy reached 10.6 feet -- a one-in-500-year event. Also, erecting seawalls to protect Manhattan could simply divert the surge to other unprotected areas of the city, exacerbating flooding in those boroughs. And it's unclear what the environmental impact of such maritime structures would be on the region's fisheries and estuaries.

????Adapting to the new normal will cost businesses and governments around the globe hundreds of billions, but that may be a bargain compared with the damage future Sandys and Katrinas cause. There is, however, a bright side: Business should be very good for those companies ready to rethink and rebuild our vulnerable infrastructure.