??? 下個月，Windows 8就將正式發(fā)布了，這會是微軟公司（Microsoft）的“新可樂”時刻（"New Coke" moment）嗎？1985年，可口可樂公司（Coca-Cola）把這個著名飲料升級換代，推出了新一代產(chǎn)品，卻沒有得到消費者的接受。與此類似，對微軟無處不在的各種老版本的PC操作系統(tǒng)來說，微軟這次推出的最新版本可能也有點太超前了。如果Windows 8的發(fā)布籠罩在市場的困惑和負面報道中，那微軟要和蘋果公司（Apple）及谷歌公司（Google）在統(tǒng)治移動與平板電腦市場一決高下的計劃就不容樂觀了。

????多年來，微軟一直因為沒有推出能與硅谷的眾多競爭對手相抗衡的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品而飽受詬病。17年前，微軟推出了Windows 95操作系統(tǒng)。此后，微軟除了推出Xbox游戲機外，基本上再也沒有拿出真正能改變市場游戲規(guī)則的產(chǎn)品。現(xiàn)在，微軟正靠Windows手機操作系統(tǒng)試圖與谷歌的Android和蘋果的iOS三分天下。它還曾投入巨資，以圖趕上谷歌在搜索領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)軍地位。2007年，微軟花了63億美元收購aQuantive公司，試圖進軍互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣告市場，但最終卻慘敗收場，最后該公司的市值在微軟的財務(wù)報表上顯示為區(qū)區(qū)1億美元。

????微軟今年早些時候?qū)Quantive價值進行減記，使其財報有史以來第一次出現(xiàn)季度虧損，堪稱它在公共關(guān)系上的一個污點。也許有人會說，2008年微軟在受到誤導(dǎo)，擬用450億美元的巨款收購當時已四分五裂的雅虎公司（Yahoo!）后又明智脫身，是它過去幾年間最大的成就。如果收購雅虎的交易達成，微軟將面臨遠比減記62億美元高得多的巨額虧損。

????盡管麻煩不斷，微軟仍然賺得盆滿缽滿。這主要歸功于始終占據(jù)市場統(tǒng)治地位的Windows操作系統(tǒng)和包括文字處理程序Word和電子表單Excel在內(nèi)的Office套裝產(chǎn)品。這兩大產(chǎn)品分別占據(jù)微軟總銷量的25%和35%，貢獻的利潤則更高。據(jù)市場調(diào)查公司NetMarketshare的數(shù)據(jù)稱，Windows系統(tǒng)占桌面市場的份額高達驚人的92%。因此，就算犯些錯，投資失利，微軟還是照樣能稱雄技術(shù)界和投資界，還能付給投資者高達3%的股票紅利。

????微軟之所以能在PC用戶中保持極大的市場份額，原因之一是大家在工作場合和家庭中都已對Windows和Office非常熟悉了。換言之，它的主打產(chǎn)品大家已用得得心應(yīng)手，這就形成了相當一部分的計算機用戶基礎(chǔ)。沒人喜歡從頭學新東西——比如怎么打開一個文檔或關(guān)機。所以盡管華爾街總在抱怨微軟缺乏創(chuàng)新，用戶卻從微軟產(chǎn)品的延續(xù)一致性中得到了實惠。

????微軟非常清楚用戶對變化有多敏感。這就是為什么在它前一版操作系統(tǒng)Windows 7上，用戶可以按自己的喜好改變某些菜單，讓它看起來就像老版Windows。但在Windows 8中，微軟取消了大量能讓用戶按老習慣使用的經(jīng)典特性，還加入了大量新功能，而這些功能對使用鼠標和鍵盤操作的傳統(tǒng)桌面系統(tǒng)來說并不太好用。

????實際上，Windows 8主要是為使用觸摸屏的PC機設(shè)計的，而這是一個剛剛興起的市場領(lǐng)域。比如，在Windows 8的預(yù)發(fā)布版中，開發(fā)者和用戶很難弄清如何關(guān)掉歡迎界面，直接訪問文件。要想這么做，就得用指尖向上劃動，對觸摸屏使用者來說，這是個再自然不過的動作，但對用慣鼠標和鍵盤的人來說這就非常陌生了。

????Will the launch of Windows 8 next month be Microsoft's "New Coke" moment? Like when Coca-Cola introduced a new version of its celebrated drink in 1985, Microsoft's latest iteration of its ubiquitous PC operating system may be too radical a departure from past versions, potentially setting off a revolt among consumers, as New Coke it did for Coca-Cola. And if confusion and bad publicity cloud the launch of Windows 8, the company's plan to take on Apple and Google in the battle to control mobile and tablet markets could be jeopardized.

????Microsoft (MSFT) has been criticized for years for its lack of innovation compared to rivals down in Silicon Valley. Besides the launch of its Xbox gaming system, Microsoft has largely failed to come to market with a truly game-changing product since the launch of its Windows 95 operating system seventeen years ago. The company's current Windows phones have struggled competing with Google (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS. The company has also shredded billions of dollars to catch up with Google's lead in search. Its attempts to make inroads in the internet advertising market with the $6.3 billion acquisition of aQuantive in 2007 was a rout that ultimately forced the firm to write the value of the company down to a mere $100 million.

????The aQuantive write down earlier this year forced Microsoft to report its first quarterly loss ever, a public relations stain. One could argue that Microsoft's greatest feat in the past few years was walking away from its totally misguided $45 billion bid to take over the broken internet giant Yahoo! (YHOO) in 2008. If that deal would have gone through, Microsoft would be facing a much bigger write down than just $6.2 billion.

????Despite all of its troubles, Microsoft still makes money. This is due to the continued domination of its Windows operating system and its Microsoft Office suite of products, which includes the word processing program Microsoft Word and the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Windows and MS Office make up 25% and 35%, respectively, of Microsoft's total sales and a much larger chunk of its profits. Windows has a desktop market share hovering around a whopping 92%, according to NetMarketshare data. So even with its fumbles and failed ventures, the company remains relevant in the technology world as well as in the investment world, paying out a fat 3% dividend yield to shareholders.

????One of the reasons why Microsoft has been able to maintain its massive market share among PC users is the widespread familiarity with Windows and MS Office in both the workplace and at home. Literacy in its major products form part of the bedrock of computing, in other words. No one likes to relearn something -- like how to open a document or shut down a computer. So while Wall Street complains about the firm's lack of innovation, users benefit from the consistency in Microsoft products.

????Microsoft knows very well how sensitive users are to change. That's why on its latest operating system, Windows 7, users have the ability to customize certain menus to look like they did in previous generations of Windows. But with Windows 8, Microsoft is taking away a multitude of classic features without the ability for users to roll them back. It also adds a slew of new features that don't work very well on a traditional desktop that uses a mouse and keyboard.

????It turns out Windows 8 is designed primarily for use on a touchscreen PC, an area of the market that is in its infancy. For example, in the pre-launch version of the operating system, developers and users have had a hard time figuring out how to get off the Windows 8 welcome screen to access their files. The way to do that is to flick up, a motion that is somewhat intuitive on a touchscreen, but is totally foreign using a mouse and keyboard.