????雖然我認為一家創業公司如果執行不利的話可能會面臨更大的風險，不過我如何看待蘋果的聲明以及蘋果對特定創業領域的影響呢？首先，我認為現在就下論斷還太早，而且我會繼續觀察蘋果會針對開發者推出什么樣的服務條款。一旦我們知道了開發者可以利用蘋果的這些創新做些什么，我們就會有更好的視角。

??? 不過讓我猜測一下的話，我認為在忠誠卡和消費回饋領域，蘋果的Passbook可能會壓垮幾家羽翼未豐的創業公司。在過去24個月里，這個領域涌入了大量的新進者，但只有很少的幾家公司獲得了強勁的發展勢頭，比如主要做忠誠消費回饋計劃5Stars和團購網站ScoutMob，它們可能會是活得最久的兩家公司。另外，我們還是要看蘋果允許開發者利用它的哪些技術。可以說在這個擁擠的領域里，空氣已經變得稀薄多了。一兩家精英公司可能會幸存下來，其它公司的風險都很大。

????支付和地圖是兩個較大的類別。我不太擔心該領域內領先創業公司的高速增長。部分原因是由于這兩個領域的空間很大，聰明的、善于創新的創業公司總能找到合適的定位點進行創新、吸引顧客。此外，在粗略閱讀了給開發者的信后（我沒有對此進行深度研究），可以看出蘋果似乎要對地圖采取相對以開發者為中心的方法。不過如果你是一家主要做支付或是導航的公司，而且仍然依賴過時的技術或業務模式，那就值得擔憂了。我認為蘋果不可能完全控制這兩個領域，因此創新仍然是需要的。此外還有一件讓我感到高興的事，那就是蘋果將把智能語音助手Siri開放成一個平臺服務。雖然蘋果已經對Siri做了很多改進，但到目前為止，盡管Siri這個功能演示起來非常酷，但事實上經常使用Siri的用戶并不多。或許隨著Siri的不斷改進，越來越多的人會發現Siri這項服務正變得不可或缺。不管盡管有這些聲明，但Siri到目前依然不是一項平臺服務，開發者也還不能利用Siri這個平臺對應用進行擴展。我相信這不是件容易的事，因為蘋果必須嚴格限制Siri在這方面的使用。不過其他開發者何時才能利用Siri來擴展應用程序，這的確是個值得探討的問題。如果真有這一天，它將標志著Siri逐漸成為一個主流功能。

????總之，蘋果世界開發者大會顯示了蘋果的行業領軍者風采，顯示了蘋果是一個積極進取、理智精明的競爭者。而且它正在有效地推動iOS生態系統向前發展。

????本文作者Jay Jamison 2010年作為合作人加盟了藍馳創投（BlueRun Ventures），他住在加州的門洛帕克市。他主要關注移動、消費和企業領域的早期投資機會。他在軟件和互聯網行業有12年的產品管理和營銷經驗。他曾以高級總監的身份領導過微軟日本分公司的Windows業務集團，也擔任過微軟產品管理和營銷方面的其他高級職務。另外他還利用風投資金成功創辦了一家名叫Moonshoot的在線少兒英語教育機構。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Despite my view that the larger risk is a startup failing to execute, how would I analyze these announcements for impacts on specific startup categories? First, I think it's too early to tell, and what I'll be watching for is how Apple's developer terms of service roll out. As we get clearer insight as to what developers can leverage and take advantage of with these new innovations, we'll have a better sense.

????But if I were going to speculate, here's what I'd say. Apple's Passbook app is the one that I think will be the big wrecking ball on several early stage startups in the space of loyalty cards and rewards programs. This space has had a whole host of early stage entrants over the past 24 months it seems. A very small number were gaining strong momentum, with 5Stars (loyalty) and ScoutMob (local merchant discovery) probably the two that I see as the private companies that are farthest along. Again, watch what Apple allows these developers to leverage its technology. I'd say that the air in this crowded space got a whole lot thinner. One or two of the cream of the crop will make it, the rest are really exposed.

????For payments and maps, both fantastically large categories, I'm less concerned about high growth leading startups in this space. Partly, this is due to the very fact that the market sizes of these spaces are so large that smart, innovative startups are going to find spots to innovate and attract customers. Also, at least in early reads of developer notes (I've not studied these deeply), Apple appears to be expressing relatively developer-centric approaches to maps in particular. And I'd caveat that if you're a payments or nav company relying on legacy technology and an outdated business model, then I'd say that's troubling. My perspective here is that Apple won't own these entire categories, as always innovation is required.

????What was missing? The one thing I'd love to hear more about is Apple opening Siri as a platform service. Much was made of the improvements and the doubling down on Siri. This is good, as to date it has seemed as though Siri was a cool demo feature that few actually used very much. Perhaps with the new improvements, more of us will find Siri more indispensable as a service. But despite these announcements, Siri is not yet a platform service that independent developers can take advantage of to extend their apps. I'm sure its hard as Apple would have to constrain tightly what Siri could do in this context. But it does seem a continuing open issue—when will other developers get the chance to build programs to take advantage of Siri? That day will mark the starting point, in my mind, of Siri becoming a mainstream feature.

????The bottom line, though, is that WWDC showed a company at the top of its game, a company that is an aggressive and savvy competitor -- and one that is pushing its ecosystem forward effectively.

????Jay Jamison (@Jay_Jamison), Partner, joined BlueRun Ventures in November 2010 and is based in Menlo Park. He focuses on early stage mobile, consumer and enterprise opportunities. Jay has 12 years of product management and marketing experience in the software and internet industry. Previous experience includes leading Microsoft Japan's Windows Business Group as Senior Director, and other senior level roles at Microsoft in product management and marketing. Jay also successfully founded and led Moonshoot, a venture-backed online English education service for children.