????從過去幾年看，安卓的上升勢(shì)頭似乎勢(shì)不可擋。谷歌在2005年以區(qū)區(qū)5000萬美元將尚在萌芽期的移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)安卓收入囊中，而現(xiàn)在，它已被摩托羅拉（Motorola）、宏達(dá)電（HTC）、三星（Samsung）等大型智能手機(jī)制造商所采用。2008年末，安卓的全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)份額還只有2%，而上一季度，這一數(shù)字已暴漲至51%至59%（不同機(jī)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)有所區(qū)別）。谷歌在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的地位似乎已無人能動(dòng)搖。

????不過，目前看來，由于谷歌在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域正面臨蘋果（Apple）和Facebook兩大老對(duì)手的挑戰(zhàn)，安卓的增長(zhǎng)速度可能會(huì)放緩。最近，有多份報(bào)告指出，安卓的增長(zhǎng)或許已經(jīng)見頂。首先，科技博客Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐表示，安卓的凈用戶增長(zhǎng)數(shù)已連續(xù)四個(gè)月下滑，而且4月份的用戶增長(zhǎng)創(chuàng)下自2009年以來的新低。

????來自IDC的報(bào)告則指出，安卓的全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)份額或?qū)慕衲甑?1%跌至2016年的53%。IDC預(yù)測(cè)微軟（Microsoft）的Windows Phone 7份額將獲得提升，在4年之內(nèi)，從目前的5%升至19%，這在很大程度上將得益于微軟在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域的合作伙伴諾基亞（Nokia），后者在新興市場(chǎng)擁有很強(qiáng)的歷史底蘊(yùn)。

????如果說微軟/諾基亞聯(lián)盟即將在新興市場(chǎng)吞噬安卓份額，那么iPhone已經(jīng)開始在美國(guó)這樣干了。在威瑞森（Verizon）開始發(fā)售iPhone后，安卓在美國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的份額已趨于平穩(wěn)。而隨著新款iPhone 4S的上市，安卓的份額正開始下滑。如果蘋果能如期在今年秋天發(fā)售LTE版iPhone 5，那么可以預(yù)見，安卓在美國(guó)的份額還將進(jìn)一步下滑。

????人們很容易過度解讀市場(chǎng)份額的短期變化。例如，4月份正值歐洲和亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣期，許多功能手機(jī)用戶都放棄了升級(jí)到智能手機(jī)的計(jì)劃，而在總體減速的情況下，安卓手機(jī)仍賣得很好。此外，為了對(duì)抗蘋果的iPhone 5，谷歌似乎已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好在今年晚些時(shí)候發(fā)布安卓5.0 果凍豆（Jelly Bean）。

????但刨除這些短期變化，谷歌在鞏固移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)霸權(quán)方面確實(shí)面臨著一些挑戰(zhàn)。首先，因?yàn)榘沧康拈_放天性，所以幾乎任何設(shè)備都能搭載它，從99美元的預(yù)付費(fèi)手機(jī)，到高端（Galaxy）蓋世S3手機(jī)，再到亞馬遜（Amazon）的Kindle Fire平板電腦，這導(dǎo)致安卓平臺(tái)碎片化嚴(yán)重，為其開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序非常困難。

????為iPhone開發(fā)應(yīng)用程序只涉及到一種尺寸的屏幕，而且每次只需考慮一個(gè)版本的IOS系統(tǒng)，除非iPhone用戶自己懶得升級(jí)操作系統(tǒng)。但搭載安卓的設(shè)備數(shù)不勝數(shù)，為其開發(fā)和測(cè)試應(yīng)用程序是件極為惱火的事。更禍不單行的是，許多安卓設(shè)備升級(jí)緩慢，對(duì)最新版系統(tǒng)幾乎視而不見：只有7%的安卓設(shè)備升級(jí)到了冰激淋三明治版（Ice Cream Sandwich），即安卓4.0。

????For several years, it seemed like nothing could slow the rise of Android. The little mobile operating system that Google bought for $50 million in 2005 was adopted by big smartphone makers like Motorola, HTC and Samsung. Android's share of the global smartphone market rose from about 2% in late 2008 to somewhere between 51% and 59% last quarter (depending on who's counting). Google's foothold in the mobile web seemed assuredly strong.

????But it's starting to look like Android's growth may be stalling, just as Google (GOOG) is facing new challenges in mobile from longtime rivals Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB). Recent reports suggest the prospect of Android's growth peaking. First, Asymco's Horace Dediu noted that Android's net user gains had slowed for four straight months and that user growth in April was as slow as its been since 2009.

????Then another report from IDC said that Android's share of the world smartphone market would decline from 61% this year to 53% in 2016. IDC projected Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 to boost its market share from 5% this year to 19% in four years, thanks largely to the long history in emerging markets of Nokia (NOK), Microsoft's partner in the mobile industry.

????And if Microsoft/Nokia will start eating away at Android's share in emerging markets, the iPhone has already been doing that in the U.S. After the iPhone became available on Verizon's (VZ) networks, Android's share of the U.S. smartphone market began to stabilize. And after the release of the iPhone 4S, that market share began to erode. If as expected Apple begins selling a LTE iPhone 5 this fall, Android could see its U.S. share decline further.

????It's easy to read too much into short-term changes in market share. In April, for example, economic uncertainty in Europe and Asia led many owners of talk-and-text feature phones to hold off on upgrading to smartphones, and Android phones sold well amid the overall slowdown. And Google seems ready to match an iPhone 5 with Jelly Bean, aka Android 5.0, later this year.

????But looking beyond the short-term, there are a few challenges that are likely to cause Google problems in holding onto its formidable presence on the mobile web. First off, the open nature of Andriod -- which allows it to power everything from $99 prepaid phones to high-end Galaxy S3's to Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire tablets -- leaves the platform so fragmented it's hard for developers to easily write apps for it.

????Writing apps for the iPhone involves a standard size screen and, unless iPhone owners are slow up upgrade their OS, one version of iOS at a time. But writing and testing apps for Android and all its myriad devices can be a daunting task. It doesn't help that many Android devices are slow to upgrade to the latest version of the software: Only 7% of Android devices run Ice Cream Sandwich, a.k.a. Android 4.0.