?? ?Facebook的擁躉認為，Facebook有長遠計劃將其社交圖譜整合進智能手機和平板電腦中。為了正確實施這一戰略，Facebook目前行事頗為穩健。它正在構建一系列大有前途的互聯網資產，例如照片分享軟件Instagram、Face.com，而且Facebook還有可能收購Opera瀏覽器開發商。Facebook的社交網絡很有可能與蘋果（Apple）今后版本的iOS移動平臺深度整合。

????反對派則針對Facebook的諸多細微之處予以回擊。Facebook將如何在不惹惱用戶的情況下，把凌亂不堪的贊助廣告安排進智能手機屏幕？Facebook都不能將大廣告主留在該網站，又如何能爭取到大品牌購買移動廣告？還要最重要的一點，在競爭激烈的移動操作系統市場，Facebook將如何牢牢占據一席之地。盡管Facebook有許多方案，但最好的方案往往需要好幾年才能奏效。

????Facebook走向究竟如何？是成為長期統治社交網絡的一代巨頭，還是成為曇花一現的另一個MySpace？無論是樂觀主義者，還是悲觀主義者，他們對Faceboo未來的推斷都是言之有理的。究竟誰的預測將會實現，在很大程度上并不取決于Facebook如何應對，而是取決于該公司解決自身面臨的挑戰有多快。

????如果時間充裕，那么Facebook完全有能力、有資金以及龐大的用戶群去解決所有問題。但是，時間拖得越長，Facebook就越難保住其霸主地位。而且，Facebook股價萎靡不振的時間越長，其精英員工們受到的外界誘惑就越大，他們可能會投奔另一家欣欣向榮的新創企業，或是自謀出路。

????這是一個值得擔心的問題，因為最有可能的結果是，Facebook將在未來幾個季度繼續面臨挑戰。該公司將需要這么長的時間來為自己下一階段的增長奠定基礎。好消息是，到明年，Facebook將有很多新想法。壞消息是，對網絡界而言，一年是很長的一段時間。

????本文作者凱文?凱萊赫常駐舊金山灣區。

????The bullish case argues that Facebook has a long-term plan to integrate its social graph onto smartphones and tablets, that the company isn't rushing so that it can get this strategy right and that it's building a stable of promising web properties like Instagram, Face.com and possibly the maker of the Opera browser. Facebook's social network is likely to be integrated closelyin future versions of iOS, Apple's (AAPL) mobile platform.

????The bearish case against Facebook responds that the devil is in the details. How will the company fit its cluttery sponsored ads onto a smartphone screen without angering users? How can it woo big brands over to mobile ads when it's having trouble keeping big advertisers on its site? And above all, how can Facebook get a strong foothold in the competitive mobile OS space? It has several options, but the best ones will require several years of work.

????Which Facebook will prevail? The one that will dominate social networking for years or the one that proves to be a glorious flash in the pan? Both the optimistic and the pessimistic takes on Facebook's future have merit. Which one proves right will depend not so much on how the company responds than on how quickly it can address the challenges before it.

????Given enough time, Facebook has the talent, the cash and the huge user base to solve all of these problems. But the longer it takes to solve them, the harder it will be to retain its dominance. And the longer Facebook's stock price stays down, the more tempted its talented staff will be to exit to work at another growing startup, or to form one.

????That's a concern because the most likely outcome is that Facebook will continue to face challenges for the next several quarters. The company will need that much time to lay the groundwork for its next phase of growth. The good news is that, by next year, Facebook will have a lot of new ideas. The bad news is that a year on the web is a very long time.

????Kevin Kelleher is a writer in the San Francisco Bay Area.