????Facebook上市已有兩周多，在此期間，該公司市值縮水了30％，而我們越來越難以將此歸咎于Facebook首次公開發行時在交易方面出現的小問題。其上市后的表現令人失望，嚴重損害了Facebook這一品牌，其負面影響甚至超過了那些自Facebook誕生之初就困擾著該公司的有關用戶隱私權的爭議。

????當然，股票市場總是浮躁的。而且，由于歐洲金融危機和中國經濟的不確定性，今年春天顯得特別不穩定。但是，不穩定是一把雙刃劍：也許只需要一個滿堂紅季度，Facebook股票就可以像坐火箭一般，一下漲至其發行價38美元每股。

????現在最大的問題不在于Facebook股票的發行定價有何問題，而是Facebook能否實現強勁增長，以挽回投資者們的信心。整個市場為此問題展開了激烈辯論，Facebook到底是只牛股還是熊股，兩大陣營討論之激烈，就好像Facebook已經被拆分成了兩家公司一樣。一方認為Facebook的社交網絡正在被大眾拋棄，它將和曾經的MySpace一樣，面臨長期而緩慢的滑坡。另一派則認為Facebook是創新巨頭，雇傭了大量硅谷頂級人才，它將開創我們未來的在線交流方式。

????這兩派之間的分歧可以從華爾街分析師在過去幾周給出的Facebook目標股價看出來。周一，伯恩斯坦研究公司認為Facebook的股價將進一步下跌至每股25美元或是更低。而一周前，Wedbush證券公司則對Facebook的股票給出了每股44美元的目標股價。基本上，真實的股價在25美元到44美元之間。

????科技媒體對此的爭論更加激烈，主要圍繞著Facebook是否能保持其高速增長速度，是否能從其現有用戶身上獲得更多收入，以及該公司如何才能在不疏遠用戶的前提下從移動網絡上賺錢。

????Facebook迄今的增長令它成為了有史以來最成功的高科技公司之一，對于這一點，沒有人會否認。Facebook的優勢在于，其龐大的活躍用戶數——每月9.01億人，并且在繼續增加——使它成為自然壟斷，而且其用戶數的增長在巴西和印度等發展中國家市場依然強勁。此外，來自支付等新領域的收入在第一季度增長了近一倍。

????Facebook的劣勢則在于，在美國和英國等大市場中，其增長微乎其微，而在北美和歐洲以外的地區，該公司從每位用戶身上獲得的收入要低得多，而且該公司從每月所有用戶身上獲得的收入數量增長已經大幅放緩，即使在其最活躍用戶中也是如此。

????Facebook對移動互聯網戰略的成功與否，將決定其是否能從用戶手中賺到更多錢。而這又將我們帶入另一場激烈辯論中。

????It's been more than two weeks since Facebook went public, and it's getting harder to blame the 30% drop in its market value on the trading glitch that marred its debut. Nothing, not even the many privacy controversies that have plagued Facebook's short history, has done more to damage the Facebook brand than its disappointing post-IPO performance.

????The stock market, of course, is a fickle environment. What's more, thanks to financial turmoil in Europe and economic uncertainty in China, it has been especially volatile this spring. But volatility is a two-edged blade: It could take only one blowout quarter from Facebook (FB) to send its stock rocketing back toward its $38 a share offering price.

????The big question now is not what went wrong with Facebook's offering, it is whether Facebook can deliver growth strong enough to win back the confidence of investors. And that question has created a robust debate between bulls and bears on Facebook's future, two camps in such sharp disagreement that it's almost as if Facebook were split into two companies. The first is Facebook the social network that is losing popularity and will face the long, slow decline that MySpace suffered. The second is Facebook the innovative giant that employs much of Silicon Valley's top talent and will be defining how we interact online for years to come.

????The disagreement can be seen in the price targets that Wall Street analysts have put on the stock in the past few weeks. On Monday, Bernstein Research saw Facebook sinking further, to $25 a share or below. A week earlier, Wedbush Securities gave the same stock a $44 a share target. Basically, the truth lies somewhere in that wide range.

????In the technology press, the debate has been even more spirited, centered primarily around whether Facebook can maintain its torrid growth rate, whether it can draw more revenue out of its existing members and how it can make money from the mobile web without alienating users.

????No one will deny that Facebook's growth to date makes it one of the most successful tech companies ever. The case for Facebook says that Facebook's active users -- 901 million per month and counting -- makes it a natural monopoly, and that growth is still strong in developing markets like Brazil and India. Plus, new areas revenue like payments nearly doubled in the first quarter.

????The case against Facebook counters that growth is negligible in large markets like the U.S. and the U.K., that its revenue per user is significantly lower outside of the North America and Europe and that the revenue it makes from all monthly users has seen its growth slow dramatically, even among its most active users.

????Whether Facebook can extract more money from its users will depend in good part on its strategy for the mobile web. Which brings us to another sharp area of debate.