????亞馬遜（Amazon）此前的利潤率一直不高，現在，這家公司能否證明其長期策略將給它帶來回報？如果它新鮮出爐的本季財報多少能夠說明些問題，那我們就有充分的理由相信回報即將到來。

????2012年第一財季，亞馬遜取得132億美元營收，運營利潤為1.92億美元。兩項數據均輕松超出了華爾街預期。華爾街此前預計亞馬遜上財季營收將低于130億美元，而運營利潤為1.86億美元。出乎預料的業績推動亞馬遜股票在盤后交易中大漲了14%。投資機構ThinkEquity的分析師羅納德?約賽稱：“（亞馬遜）營收超出市場預期——不是說達到了收入指引中預測的較高值——而是完全超出了所有人的預期。更為重要的是，亞馬遜的運營利潤讓絕大部分析師都大跌眼鏡。”

????亞馬遜的最新財報反映了該公司的積極變化。2011年第四財季，亞馬遜并未達到分析師預期，導致其股價隨后暴跌了9%。而縱觀2011年全年，亞馬遜凈利潤從2010年的14億美元暴跌至6.31億美元，市場擔憂隨之而來。亞馬遜業績告急很大程度是因為它對新交付中心的投資，以及Kindle Fire平板電腦等硬件產品的銷售。尤其是Kindle Fire，分析人士普遍認為它是亞馬遜虧錢的根源所在。

????亞馬遜現在的情形并不陌生。投資公司Caris & Company的分析師斯科特?蒂爾曼對路透社（Reuters）稱：“我們現在所看到的情況和2004年到2006年期間的情形很相似。亞馬遜當時進行了大量投資，結果導致利潤收窄。但在隨后的數年，亞馬遜的利潤率開始增長，而營收也隨之發力。鑒于亞馬遜目前的規模，我們也許不會再看到其營收出現當時那樣的大幅增長，但目前看來，亞馬遜有能力提高利潤率。”

????根據昨天發布的營收報告，許多分析師認為亞馬遜高風險的數字戰略正在奏效，而且最新數據顯示，亞馬遜媒體業務正在增長，表明用戶（包括新的Kindle Fire用戶）所購買的電子書、電影和電視節目數量正在增長。另一方面，調研機構康姆斯科（comScore）最近發布報告指出，Kindle Fire目前占據了美國Android平板電腦市場54%的份額。亞馬遜首席財務官湯姆?斯庫達在營收電話會議上對分析師說：“消費者正在大量購買內容。可以看到，這一趨勢有增無減。”

????然而，并沒人預計亞馬遜慘淡的利潤率能在未來幾月就會顯著改觀。高盛投資（Goldman Sachs）的分析師預計，在2012年剩下的時間里，亞馬遜將繼續瘋狂投資交付中心、新技術、內容，同時擴充Kindle產品線。至少從今年來看，亞馬遜要興建13個交付中心。根據約賽的說法，這些交付中心一般需要兩到三年才能達到預期的運轉水平，也就是說，至少要兩到三年，它們才能提高亞馬遜的利潤率，而不是拖后腿。換句話說，今年所修建的大型倉庫一直要到2014年才會對亞馬遜的利潤帶來積極的實質性影響。

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????Can Amazon, which has long relied on low profit margins, prove its long-term strategy will pay off? If its latest quarterly earnings are any indication, there's certainly a good deal of reason to think so.

????In the first quarter, revenues were $13.2 billion with operating income of $192 million. Both figures easily trumped Wall Street's predictions of less than $13 billion in revenues and operating income of just $186 million. The surprise sent shares up 14% after-hours. "Revenues came in higher than expectations -- not at the higher end of guidance -- but even better than what people thought," says ThinkEquity analyst Ronald Josey. "More importantly, their operating income blew away most people's expectations."

????Amazon's (AMZN) latest earnings reflect a positive turn. In the fourth quarter 2011, the company missed estimates, which was initially met by a 9% drop in shares. Concerns also arose when Amazon's annual net income fell sharply from $1.4 billion in 2010 to $631 million in 2011. Much of that was due to Amazon's investment in new fulfillment centers, as well as hardware like the Kindle Fire tablet. In particular, the Fire is widely believed by analysts to be a device the company is losing money on.

????This isn't Amazon's first trip to the dance, though. "They are very similar to what we saw back in the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when the company was making a lot of investments and margins got squeezed," Caris & Company analyst Scott Tilghman told Reuters. "Then in the years following, margins expanded and revenue accelerated. ... We might not see quite as much of an acceleration on the revenue, given the size of the company, but it does look like they have the ability to generate the margins."

????In light of yesterday's earnings announcement, many analysts believe Amazon's risky digital strategy is working, and that the latest numbers indicating growth in the company's media business mean users -- including new Fire owners -- are buying more e-books, movies, and television shows. To wit, research firm comScore recently reported that the Fire now accounts for nearly 54% of all Android tablets in the U.S. "Customers are buying a lot of content," Amazon chief financial officer Tom Szkutak said during an earnings call with analysts. "You're seeing that accelerate."

????No one expects the firm's tight margins to fatten up in the coming months, however. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect Amazon to continue robust investments in fulfillment, technology, content and expanding its Kindle line through the rest of 2012. At the very least, it remains on track to open 13 more fulfillment centers this year. According to Josey, it generally takes two or three years for those fulfillment centers to operate at expected efficiency levels and thus two or three years for them to boost Amazon's margins, rather than constrict them. In other words, the warehouses built this year likely won't have a positive, material impact on the company's bottom line until 2014.