????2010年秋，我曾列出多點理由，闡釋為什么盡管關于科技“泡沫”的爭論層出不窮，但它們事實上只是一個標志，表明當時的科技行業正處于一輪理性繁榮的周期。大概一年前，我曾經再次談起過這個話題。

????那么，后來的情形怎么樣了？我當時預測的五宗“爆炸性”科技股IPO已有三宗（商務社交網站LinkedIn、團購網站Groupon和社交游戲巨頭Zynga）成為現實，最大的一宗（Facebook）也已提交申請，可能會在90天內上市。第二波由風投支持的IPO潮正風起云涌……包括消費者科技公司（點評網站Yelp、互聯網內容制造商Demand Media、網絡音樂電臺Pandora、數據備份公司Carbonite、假日租房網站HomeAway和點評網站Angie's List等）以及B2B公司（企業社交軟件開發商Jive Software、互聯網視頻技術服務公司Brightcove、數據安全解決方案提供商Imperva、電子郵件營銷服務商Responsys等）。已提交IPO登記表的公司數量仍在持續增長。

????從互聯網泡沫破滅到如今的科技股IPO卷土重來，用了十年多，但在我看來這只是科技股IPO市場回歸長期趨勢的過程。過去十年，新的監管條例【薩班斯-奧克斯利法案（Sarbanes-Oxley）】、公眾投資者結構的變化（對沖基金、高頻交易投資者等的影響力上升）以及投資銀行注意力的轉變都導致了科技股IPO市場的淡靜。即使是在2004-2008年初的宏觀經濟繁榮期（受到各類信貸泡沫——房地產、主權債券、杠桿收購——的推動），科技股IPO也很少見。接著是2008年底至2010年的全球經濟危機，科技股IPO回暖的希望就更渺茫了。我印象中當時連軟件/互聯網初創企業提交S-1都堪稱稀罕事，如今差不多每周都有。

????那么，現在應該采取什么行動？這對于那些考慮在中短期內IPO的后期初創企業有何啟示？對早期初創企業又有何影響？

??? 1. 宏觀環境仍決定IPO窗口。雖然2011年有幾十宗科技股IPO，宏觀經濟狀況仍決定著何時科技公司能成功IPO。資本市場有一定的季節性，也許你還記得2011年社交游戲公司Zynga、團購網站Groupon等公司原本打算在股市交投淡靜的夏季結束后于9月份進行IPO定價。但歐債危機就像一輛緩慢傾覆的火車，迅速碾碎了它們的希望。Groupon直到11月份才完成IPO，Zynga則等到了12月份。

????當前宏觀經濟狀況相對平穩。美國經濟雖然仍處于弱勢復蘇狀態，但基本面良好，并在持續向好。但歐元危機隨時可能再起波瀾，中東沖突升級則可能推動油價暴漲，這些威脅依然真實存在。我相信如果從中長期角度看，科技股IPO市場正在逐步正常化，但短期波動仍可能出現。計劃上市者必須要有耐心，希望波動只會持續幾個月，而不是幾年。

??? 2. 可行的商業模式——上市門檻仍然很高。通常來說，公司（以及他們的投資銀行家和當前的風投投資者）只有具備相當規模、可靠的商業模式才會考慮嘗試。不同規模、不同知名度的投資銀行對此定義可能略有差異，但這通常意味著過去12個月的銷售額超過5,000萬美元，未來一年的預估銷售額接近或超過1億美元。對于“軟件即服務”（SaaS）或其他有經常性營業收入的公司，這些數字可能是根據賬面判斷，而不是GAAP營收，但概念上它們是類似的。另外，營業收入的增長率也很重要……同樣是年營收5,000萬美元的兩家公司，每年仍在翻番增長的公司將非常具有吸引力，每年增長10-20%的公司上市則會遇到困難。

????In the fall of 2010 I laid out reasons why all the tech "bubble" chatter was really more the hallmark of a reasonably-sustained boom, and then revisited the topic almost one year ago to the day.

????Well what's happened since then? Three of the five "blockbuster" tech IPOs I predicted have happened (LinkedIn, Groupon and Zynga) while the biggest of all (Facebook) has filed and will likely go public within the next 90 days. The secondary wave of VC-backed IPOs has also come to fruition… both consumer facing (Yelp, Demand Media, Pandora, Carbonite, HomeAway, Angie's List, et al) and B2B (Jive Software, Brightcove, Imperva, Responsys, etc). The pipeline of companies in registration has continued to grow.

????It's taken more than a decade since the dotcom bubble bursting, but to me all of this is part of a long-term normalization of the tech IPO market. New regulations (Sarbanes-Oxley), changing dynamics in the public investor landscape (greater influence of hedge funds, HFT, etc) and a shifting focus of investment banks all contributed to the lull too. But even during the macroeconomic boom of 2004 to early 2008 (inflated by various credit bubbles – housing, sovereign debt, LBOs) tech IPOs were extremely rare and then the global economic crisis of late 2008 – 2010 only further dampened hopes for a recovery. I remember when it was a rare, extraordinary thing for a software/internet startup to even file an S-1. Now there are filings virtually every week.

????So now what? What are the implications for other late-stage private companies thinking of making the transition to public markets in the near to midterm future? What's the impact for early-stage startups?

?? 1. Macro Environment Still Dictates IPO Windows. While 2011 saw dozens of tech IPOs, macroeconomic conditions still dictate when companies can successfully complete an offering. There's some natural seasonality to the capital markets, but if you recall companies like Zynga (ZNGA) and Groupon (GRPN) originally expected to price offerings in September 2011 after the summer lull. But the latest fit in the slow motion train wreck that is the European sovereign debt crisis quickly dashed those hopes. Groupon didn't manage to get out until November and Zynga in December.

????Right now the macro economic conditions are comparatively calm. The U.S. economy is still in a weak recovery mode, but fundamentals are sound and continue to progress. But another flare up of the Euro crisis could happen at any time, or oil shocks prompted by Mideast conflict and escalation are still very real possibilities. While I believe the tech IPO market is normalizing when taking the mid-long term view, short term disruptions are still likely to occur. Would-be issuers may have to be patient, but hopefully only for months and not years.

??? 2. Viable Businesses – The Bar Remains High. By and large, the only companies (and by extension their bankers and existing VC backers) attempting IPOs are ones that have viable businesses of meaningful scale. Investment banks of varying size and prestige might say slightly different things, but typically it means over $50M in trailing sales and a run rate near or above $100M. For SaaS or other recurring revenue businesses these figures might be on a bookings basis rather than GAAP revenue, but conceptually they're similar. Also top line growth rates matter… a $50M business that's still doubling every year is in a strong position, a $50M business growing 10-20% a year will struggle to get public.

?