微軟撥云見日
????微軟(Microsoft)從來都是眾矢之的。事實上,自從Windows王朝開始被競爭對手的技術所取代,比爾?蓋茨就遠離了他親手創建的這家公司,而將一個費力不討好的任務丟給了首席執行官史蒂夫?鮑爾默:在一個日益由蘋果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)、和Facebook等公司說了算的行業竭盡全力為微軟覓得一席之地。 ????投資者對這一點認識得尤為清醒,他們甚至曾多次呼吁鮑爾默辭職。2010年和2011年,微軟股票表現遠低于市場平均水平。兩年間,其股票價值下降了15%,而道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)卻上升了17%。此外,盡管微軟在此期間的市盈率始終保持在10上下,遠遠低低于道瓊斯的平均市盈率,微軟股票仍然遜色于入選道瓊斯指數的其他股票。 ????2012年,這種情形開始轉變。今年,到目前為止,微軟股票上漲了19%,而道瓊斯工業平均指數只上升了5%。此外,微軟股票價值始終穩定在32美元/股的水平上下,這是自2008年年初以來,其股票首次恢復到這一水平。出現現象的主要原因應該是微軟最終成功地說服了投資者,讓他們相信自己在后PC世界里仍然會有上佳的表現。 ????當然,微軟不會成為后PC世界的王者,但它也不會落伍。它不過是從領跑的位置移到了隊伍中的另外一個位置而已。投資者們曾憂心忡忡,擔心平板電腦和智能手機的興起會讓微軟一步步地衰落下去。相反,微軟似乎正在對自己進行重新定位,以謀求未來數年內穩定而溫和的增長。 ????這似乎也是華爾街今年以來始終在向微軟傳遞的信息。幾十年來,Windows軟件銷售始終是微軟營業收入的搖錢樹。上個季度,這塊收入為47.4億美元,下降了6%。這很大程度上是由于上網本的銷售額下降了70%所致。如果換在過去,僅僅這一項就足已成為拖累股票增長的不利因素,但上述數字公布以來,微軟的股票反而穩步增長了8%。 ????原因何在?首先,其他部門的業績增長完全彌補了Windows銷售額的下降。娛樂及設備部門(包括Xbox游戲機)的收入增長了15%,達到42.4億美元。服務器及工具部門的收入增長了11%,達到47.7億美元。換言之,上季度,服務器收入增長迅速,已超過Windows的收入;而且,娛樂收入同樣也快趕上Windows收入了。 ????因此,即使Windows業務瀕臨衰亡,微軟也早有打算,另辟財源,確保其他業務的收入和利潤持續增長。而且,現在就下斷論說Windows即將滅亡未免為時過早,很可能事實并非如此。事實上,這塊業務也許很快便會再次呈現持續多年的增長之勢。 |
????Microsoft will always have its detractors. The truth is that Bill Gates moved away from the company he founded just as the Windows dynasty was being supplanted by rival technologies. That left CEO Steve Ballmer with the thankless task of trying to find a place for Microsoft in an industry where companies like Apple, Google and Facebook seemed to be increasingly setting the agenda. ????That sense of disenchantment has been especially strong among investors, who have repeatedly called for Ballmer to resign. In 2010 and 2011, Microsoft (MSFT) significantly underperformed the broader market, declining 15% over the two-year period while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 17%. And it underperformed its Dow peers even though it had a price-earnings ratio that was consistently near 10, well below the Dow's average PE ratio. ????In 2012, things are changing. So far this year, Microsoft's stock is up 19%, against a 5% rise in the Dow, and it's been flirting with the $32 a share level it hasn't seen since early 2008. And the biggest reason seems to be that Microsoft is finally persuading investors that it's going to be just fine in the post-PC world. ????Of course, Microsoft won't dominate the post-PC world. Neither will it be irrelevant. It' has changed its seat at the head of the table for just another seat at the table. Investors had feared that the rise of tablets and smartphones meant a slow decline for the company. Instead, Microsoft seems to be positioning itself for years of steady, moderate growth. ????That also seems to be the message that Wall Street has been sending to Microsoft this year. In the most recent quarter, revenue from Windows software, for decades the biggest source of Microsoft revenue, fell 6% last quarter to $4.74 billion, due largely to a 70% decline in netbook sales. In the past that alone would have been bad news, but Microsoft's stock has steadily risen 8% since that disclosure. ????Why? First, because other divisions are more than making up for the slowdown in Windows sales. Revenue from entertainment and devices (which includes the Xbox game console) rose 15% to $4.24 billion. And revenue from servers and tools rose 11% to $4.77 billion. In other words, server revenue grew fast enough to eclipse Windows revenue last quarter. And entertainment revenue is close to surpassing it as well. ????So even if Windows were a dying franchise, Microsoft has laid plans to keep its revenue and profits growing in other areas. And while it's too early to say decisively, Windows may not be a dying franchise. It may in fact be one about to see renewed growth for years. |