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蘋果股東有望盼來分紅盛宴

蘋果股東有望盼來分紅盛宴

Adam Lashinsky 2012-02-08
首席執行官蒂姆?庫克已經表態,蘋果(Apple)愿意與過去決裂。下一步,他很可能會做出一個驚人的決定,花掉蘋果龐大現金儲備中的一部分,用于股東分紅。

????蘋果資產負債表上流動性證券的價值高達近980億美元。僅此一項,蘋果公司(Apple)就可以在全球最具價值的公司中名列第43位。事實上,這個排名緊隨麥當勞(McDonalds)。在現代現金管理記錄中,這一現象既驚世駭俗,又令人匪夷所思。沒有哪家頭腦正常的公司會讓1,000億美元躺在那兒睡大覺。但是,正如同我最近反復強調的一點,蘋果絕非尋常之輩。與眾不同是它的本性,現金儲備也不例外。

????至少,蘋果對花錢的厭惡最終要告一段落了。上周,瑞銀證券(UBS)旗下的財富管理部門發布了一份簡短的報告,其中有段話對其他任何公司來說都無足輕重,但對蘋果來說卻極具新聞價值。“我們知道,公司管理層一直在就是否向股東支付紅利一事征求大股東的意見,”瑞銀證券的鮑勃?福爾克納這樣寫道。他還進一步猜測說,蘋果將在本月23日于加利福尼亞州庫伯蒂諾舉行的公司年會上公布其分紅計劃。

????福爾克納拒絕對此發表進一步評論。這則趣聞令人吃驚的地方在于,蘋果居然會就某事征求別人的意見,更別提征求投資者的意見了。過去數年來,蘋果對待投資者的輕蔑態度足已與其對新聞界的態度相媲美。它既不愿意在投資者身上浪費時間,也對投資者對它該怎么花錢的高見缺乏興趣。至少過去一直如此。盡管從某種程度上來說,這種觀點單純得有些可笑,卻也令人欽佩。蘋果認為,它比華爾街的金融界人士更懂得如何支配公司資金。而且,盡管投資者不斷大聲疾呼,要求蘋果給予股東現金回報,但同時他們很難責難蘋果在管理投資者財富方面有何失策之舉。

????無論如何,日漸清晰的一個事實是,蘋果眼下面臨著與巨大的成就相伴而生的問題:它已經黔驢技窮,再也找不到新的渠道來負責任地投放其利潤。它從未像任何其他大公司一樣進行過像樣的收購。比如說,硅谷的投資銀行家們望眼欲穿地希望蘋果收購Twitter。但是,這與蘋果的收購理念背道而馳,因此很難想象這一幕會成為現實。

????過去半年來,蘋果首席執行官蒂姆?庫克開始公開表態,稱蘋果愿意改變過去的紅利政策。1997年,他重返蘋果時,恰逢公司面臨資金枯竭的絕境。盡管蘋果最終僥幸地度過了難關,但此后史蒂夫?喬布斯的現金政策幾乎達到了偏執的程度,這一點已經眾人皆知。庫克知道公司不會因為派發紅利而破產。所以,即使蘋果業務繼續迅猛增長,它現在同樣也面臨著微軟(Microsoft)一直面臨的難題。(近年來,微軟向股東支付了幾十億美元的紅利。)庫克在成為蘋果首席執行官后不久即表示,他并不“迷信”現金管理。最近他又表示,蘋果管理層已開始“積極探討”該如何使用公司的現金。

????蘋果一向以向外界宣告其未來計劃而聞名。平生頭一遭,它開始愿意聆聽別人的意見。我們預計,蘋果會很快宣布其紅利支付計劃。

????譯者:大海

????The liquid securities alone on Apple's balance sheet, roughly $98 billion, would make it the 43rd most valuable company in the world. Apple's cash would rank it just behind McDonalds, an astounding and bizarre statement in the annals of modern cash management. No company in its right mind would keep $100 billion lying around. But then, as I've been arguing frequently of late, Apple is no normal company. It does just about everything differently, including how it socks away its money.

????Apple's (AAPL) aversion to paying its cash, at least, may finally be coming to an end. A slim report issued last week by the wealth management group at UBS (UBS) contains a snippet that would be utterly unremarkable at any other company but is newsworthy for Apple. "We ... understand that management has been soliciting the opinions of large shareholders on the subject [of paying a dividend]," wrote UBS's Bob Faulkner. He went on to speculate that Apple would declare a dividend at its Feb. 23 annual meeting in Cupertino, Calif.

????What's startling about this tidbit from Faulkner, who declined to comment further, is the notion of Apple soliciting anyone's opinion on anything, let alone the opinion of its investors. Apple has treated investors with about the same level of disdain it reserves for the press over the years. It is stingy with its time with shareholders and relatively uninterested, at least historically, with what investors think Apple should do with their money. In a way, it's a comically pure and admirable perspective. Apple thinks it knows better than someone on Wall Street how to spend Apple's money. And despite the howling from investors that Apple should give back some cash, it's hard to suggest Apple has been a poor steward of investor wealth.

????And yet, what's becoming increasingly clear is that Apple has a success problem on its hands: It has run out of ways to responsibly spend its profits. It has never done what any other big company would view as a major acquisition. Silicon Valley investment bankers desperately would like to see Apple acquire Twitter, for example. But this would be so contrary to the Apple acquisition mindset that it's hard to imagine.

????Apple CEO Tim Cook has taken the last half a year to begin to signal a willingness to reverse course on the dividend policy. Steve Jobs was famously paranoid about cash, having survived the experience of Apple nearly running out of money in 1997, when he returned to the company. Cook knows that insolvency isn't possible. So now Apple faces the same conundrum as Microsoft (MSFT) has faced, even as Apple continues to experience torrid growth. (Microsoft has dividended billions of dollars to shareholders in recent years.) Shortly after becoming CEO Cook said he wasn't "religious" about cash management. More recently he said Apple's management was "actively discussing" what to do about the cash.

????Apple is famous for telling others what it will do. For once, it appears to be listening to what others want. Expect a dividend announcement sooner rather than later.

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