銀行業

美國銀行巨頭進一步擴張

????美國的大型銀行自作自受，眼下正在舔舐著金融危機帶來的創傷。眼前的情形很難讓我們相信，在未來的十年內，美國的大型銀行將進一步擴大規模和勢力。但是，這確實是行業分析師們的預見到的情形。

????等到歐元危機平息，美國解決抵押市場的混亂狀態之后，摩根大通銀行（J.P. Morgan）等大型銀行將進入擴張的新時代。誠然，新出臺的法規將增加它們的成本，壓縮一度十分豐厚的營業利潤，從而導致這些最大型銀行的增長放緩。但是，這些法規也使其他銀行無力挑戰這些行業巨頭的地位。高盛投資銀行（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（J.P. Morgan）等投資銀行將無法故技重施，繼續利用杠桿比率來刺激產生收入的交易，最終，它們將淪為銀行業巨頭的獵物。

????其實，我們不妨把未來的銀行想象成受到政府高度監管的公用事業：它們將持有大量的資金，勉強維持盈利，并且會聘用經理人來回避風險。如果果真如此，未來的銀行將會進入龐大但缺乏生機的新階段。

????——斯科特?森多維斯基

Banking

Big U.S. banks get even bigger

????Looking at them now, nursing self-inflicted wounds from the financial crisis, it seems hard to believe that America's big banks could be even bigger and stronger a decade from now. But that's the scenario many industry analysts envision.

????Once the euro crisis clears and America fixes its mortgage mess, giants like J.P. Morgan will enter a new era of expansion. Yes, new regulations will impose higher costs and reduce once-lucrative trading profits, resulting in far slower growth for the largest players. But those regulations will also make it tougher for others to challenge their top positions. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley won't be able to use the levels of leverage they once did to boost revenue-generating trading operations, making them prey for the megabanks.

????Think of tomorrow's banks as highly regulated public utilities: They'll hold lots of capital, eke out profits, and hire managers who shun risk. Welcome to the big and boring future of banking.

????--Scott Cendrowski