????涉及社交媒體網(wǎng)站的流量和用戶數(shù)，各方莫衷一是，很難確定哪家的數(shù)據(jù)更準(zhǔn)確。例如，F(xiàn)acebook聲稱有8億“活躍用戶”，但我知道很多人——包括我自己在內(nèi)——不止有一個賬戶。因此，F(xiàn)acebook或許有8億活躍賬號，但其用戶數(shù)量不可能真的接近10億人，要知道，全球總共也就68億人。

????而Google+的用戶數(shù)則更模糊清楚。因?yàn)楣雀瑁℅oogle）自己近來沒有透露其用戶數(shù)量，我們只能依第三方的數(shù)字。但有證據(jù)顯示，谷歌開發(fā)的這款旨在與Facebook一爭高下的產(chǎn)品正在迅猛發(fā)展。家譜網(wǎng)站Ancestry.com的創(chuàng)始人保羅?艾倫稱自己是Google+的“非官方統(tǒng)計(jì)員” 艾倫提供了一個樂觀的預(yù)測：Google+到年底將擁有4億用戶。艾倫表示，目前，Google+的用戶數(shù)僅略高于6,000萬。艾倫估計(jì)Google+的全部用戶中，有近四分之一去年12月份注冊的，表明Google+增速驚人，而他本人是據(jù)此做出上述預(yù)測的。

????一些觀察人士稱，Google+的增速實(shí)際上更高。谷歌最近一次公布官方數(shù)據(jù)是在10月份，當(dāng)時，該公司首席執(zhí)行官拉里?佩奇表示，Google+擁有4,000萬用戶。除此之外，該公司未給出其他任何信息，比如這些用戶數(shù)是如何統(tǒng)計(jì)的：是每月活躍用戶數(shù)？該數(shù)字是否包括已經(jīng)完成注冊但從未使用該服務(wù)的用戶？

????不過如果Google+真的能達(dá)到艾倫所估計(jì)的用戶數(shù)，那么有助于這家搜索巨頭扭轉(zhuǎn)今年的頹勢：總體而言，谷歌在獨(dú)立訪問量上仍然遙遙領(lǐng)先于其它網(wǎng)站，但從用戶停留的時間來看，F(xiàn)acebook已將谷歌的所有服務(wù)拋在身后，就連搜索和YouTube也不例外。按照用戶停留時間計(jì)算，F(xiàn)acebook比谷歌、YouTube、雅虎（Yahoo）和美國在線（AOL）四家網(wǎng)站的總和還多。所以，谷歌現(xiàn)在向社交媒體投入重金也就不足為奇了。不過恐怕已經(jīng)為時太晚。

????但是，谷歌仍然不容輕視。Google+和Facebook的競爭經(jīng)常被看作是“零和博弈”，即一方的勝利必須以擊敗另一方為前提。但兩家公司最終共存也并非不可能，他們能互相競爭（再加上Twitter）用戶和廣告商。兩家公司的用戶群體有很大程度的重疊，而這種情況很可能會持續(xù)下去。不難想象，為了迎合不同的廣告商，兩家公司會發(fā)布不同口徑的用戶統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)。也許Google+最終會成為匯聚互聯(lián)網(wǎng)專業(yè)、技術(shù)和創(chuàng)意人才的平臺，而Facebook會繼續(xù)成長為網(wǎng)絡(luò)主流用戶的平臺。最終，Google+的用戶數(shù)和流量會相對較少，但“每千次展示成本”（CPM）會相對較高。

????無論如何，上文所說的只是一種可能。Facebook目前面臨著一大風(fēng)險：它添加了Ticker等不少令人反感的功能；在不經(jīng)意間刺探用戶隱私；而且不停地對網(wǎng)站進(jìn)行改版，最近Facebook對網(wǎng)站數(shù)次大動干戈，隨著時間軸的加入，改版行動總算告一段落，這樣的舉動越頻繁，F(xiàn)acebook就越可能失去大量用戶，從而動搖其根本。一旦用戶在Google+上的好友數(shù)越多，Google+的新功能越多，他們從Facebook轉(zhuǎn)投前者的成本也就越低，或者他們至少可以再開通一個Google+賬號，而將Facebook打入冷宮。

????Facebook預(yù)計(jì)將在今年進(jìn)行首次公開募股，之后投資者注入的數(shù)十億美元資金將任由其支配，一不留神，該網(wǎng)站可能會開始混日子。Facebook最好用這些錢改進(jìn)服務(wù)，并與更多的媒體和游戲公司合作，以增加該網(wǎng)站的功能，即致力于增加Facebook對用戶的吸引力。

????注：“零和博弈(zero-sum game)”又稱“零和游戲”，與非零和博弈相對，是博弈論的一個概念，屬非合作博弈，指參與博弈的各方，在嚴(yán)格競爭下，一方的收益必然意味著另一方的損失，博弈各方的收益和損失相加總和永遠(yuǎn)為“零”。也就是說，雙方不存在合作的可能。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????Whenever the subject of traffic or membership on social-media sites comes up, a caveat should be offered: it's really difficult to tell which numbers to believe, if any. Facebook claims 800 million "active users," but I know lots of people -- myself included -- who have more than one account. So, active accounts, maybe. But the number of users is not likely to really be approaching 1 billion of Earth's 6.8 billion inhabitants.

????The numbers are even murkier when it comes to Google Plus. Since Google (GOOG) hasn't disclosed its own numbers lately, we must rely on those from outside observers. But the evidence suggests that Google's answer to Facebook is growing fast. Paul Allen, the founder of Ancestry.com who calls himself an "unofficial statistician" for Google Plus, offers an optimistic prediction: that Google Plus will have 400 million users by year's end. Right now, it has just over 60 million, he says. He bases his prediction on his claim that nearly a quarter of all of Google Plus's users signed up in December, indicating a rather breathtaking rate of growth.

????Some observers say Google Plus's growth rate is actually higher than that. The last official word from Google itself came in October, when CEO Larry Page said Google Plus had 40 million users. The company didn't give any more information than that, such as how those users were counted: Active monthly users? Did it include people who signed up for the service but have never used it?

????But if Google Plus really does reach Allen's estimate for this year, it would turn around what is a troubling trend for the search giant: as a whole, the company is still ahead of everybody in terms of unique visits, but it's being crushed by Facebook in terms of time spent on any given Google property, such as search and YouTube. By that metric, Facebook beats Google, YouTube, Yahoo (YHOO) and AOL (AOL) combined. No wonder Google is putting so much money and effort into social media. Too bad it happened so late.

????Still, Google is not easily dismissed. Too often, Google Plus vs. Facebook is presented as a zero-sum game, as if the success of one must result in the downfall of the other. But there's no reason that they can't both thrive, competing with each other (and with Twitter, et al) for users and ad dollars. They share many of the same users now, and that will likely continue to be the case. It's easy to imagine them each claiming different demographics to appeal to different advertisers. Perhaps Google Plus will end up being the network of professionals, techies and creative types, while Facebook continues on as the network of the mainstream. Maybe Google Plus will end up with fewer members and less traffic, but higher CPMs.

????Anyway, that's one scenario. One big risk for Facebook in what is fast becoming a real competition is that it will lose more members the more often it creates obnoxious features like the Ticker, carelessly invades users' privacy, or radically revamps the site, as it has done several times recently, culminating in the new Timeline feature. The more friends someone has on Google Plus, and the more features that site adds, the lower the cost to users of switching over from Facebook, or at least of adding Google Plus and going to Facebook less often.

????Unless it is careful, Facebook will, if anything, be more prone to muck about with the site once it has billions of dollars of the investing public's money at its disposal after its expected IPO this year. Better Facebook should use the cash to improve service and make deals with more media and gaming companies to add to the site's features. That is, to work on making it more attractive to users rather than less so.