????人們對泡沫津津樂道，對云計算也是一樣。而近來大家喜歡談論的話題則是潛在的云泡沫。云計算市場是否真的已經開始往這個方向發展？

????目前還沒有。至于說近來一些過高的估值（比如SAP收購SuccessFactors）是否合理，現在下結論為時過早。但有一點很清楚，那就是從專屬軟件向基于云計算軟件的轉移不能再被說成是一時的風流。咨詢公司JMP Securities 分析師帕特里克?瓦爾拉文在最近的一份報告中寫道：“我們認為，甲骨文（Oracle）、SAP和IBM等大型軟件廠商正將市場份額拱手讓給規模較小、增長較快的軟件即服務競爭對手，后者正越來越被市場接受。我們認為，這些公司為了阻止市場份額流失、在競爭激烈的軟件即服務領域占據更有利地位，目前正把收購視為解決方案。”

????過去短短幾個月，甲骨文收購了RightNow科技公司，SAP收購了SuccessFactors，而IBM則收購了DemandTec。大型企業軟件廠商終于承認，企業購買技術的方式正在發生改變。他們也終于承認自己沒有在云領域競爭的基因，因此他們要收購基于軟件即服務模式的小型軟件廠商。

????甲骨文尤其熱衷于公司收購。隨著消費者軟件購買方式的轉變，該公司面臨的壓力日益增大。上周二，甲骨文公布了上季度財報，不過并未達到之前的預期。

????投資銀行Cowen and Company的高級研究分析師皮特?戈德瑪奇在最近一份報告中稱：“我們認為原因在于越來越多的客戶因為成本壓力而取消了（與甲骨文的）維護合同，他們轉而購買更現代化的技術，導致甲骨文的所有產品都受到了影響。”

????市場形勢的下一步會如何發展？市場上還有大量的潛在收購對象，因為小型云計算公司在銷售、分銷和部署方面都需要大型企業軟件廠商的幫助。所以可以預見未來一段時間，大魚吃小魚的收購還會層出不窮。2012年底，我們應該能更清晰地看見哪些公司——無論大小——將成為軟件新時代的中流砥柱。我們還能看到押寶云計算公司到底能否獲得回報。

????新近整合的專屬云計算公司的成功一定程度上將取決于規模較小的云計算公司融入大型企業軟件廠商的情況。

????People like to talk about bubbles. And the cloud. And, more recently, a potential cloud bubble. But are we really heading in that direction?

????Not yet. It's too early to tell whether some of the recent inflated valuations (a la SAP's acquisition of SuccessFactors) are justified. What's clear is that the shift from on-premise to cloud-based software can no longer be dismissed as a passing trend. "We believe that larger enterprise software vendors such as Oracle (ORCL), SAP (SAP), and IBM (IBM) have been losing share to their smaller, faster growing SaaS competitors that are increasingly being accepted in the market," JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens wrote in a recent report. "Increasingly, we believe these companies are viewing acquisitions as a way to stem market share losses and position themselves better in the competitive SaaS marketplace."

????In the last few months alone, Oracle acquired RightNow Technologies (RNOW), SAP bought SuccessFactors (SFSF) and IBM snapped up DemandTec (DMAN). Large, on-premise enterprise software makers are finally admitting that the way companies buy technology is changing. They're also acknowledging that they don't have the DNA to compete in the cloud, which is why they're acquiring smaller players that have built their business on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model.

????Oracle in particular has been on a big acquisition spree. And it's also feeling the pressure from the shift in how customers buy software. On Tuesday the company announced its quarterly earnings missed expectations:

????"We believe this is because every product in Oracle's arsenal is under pressure as customers are increasingly canceling maintenance contracts as they look to cut costs and buy more contemporary technology," Peter Goldmacher, a senior research analyst with Cowen and Company, wrote in a recent note.

????So what's next? There are plenty of other acquisitions targets out there, and the smaller cloud players need the larger enterprise vendors to help in sales, distribution and reach. That's why you can expect the feeding frenzy to continue in the coming months. By end of 2012, we should have a better sense of which companies -- small and large -- will become the next big names in this new era of software. We should also have a better sense of whether paying a premium for cloud companies will have paid off.

????The success of these newly consolidated on-premise cloud companies in this space will partly depend on how well smaller cloud players are integrated into large enterprise vendors.