??? 托尼?法德爾過去曾讓質疑者們大跌眼鏡。10年前，法德爾構思并幫助制作出了一款漂亮的小玩意，并將其推向市場，不過當時許多分析師不以為然，紛紛表示這款新式高科技“玩具”離普通大眾的生活太遙遠。結果，這個預言不幸榮登科技史上最悲催預言排行榜。法德爾的iPod銷量超過3億部，而且仍然沒有停下前進的步伐。它徹底改變了整個音樂產業。

????法德爾如今被譽為“iPod之父”，他希望這次能再次讓質疑者們閉嘴。法德爾曾領導團隊成功開發iPod并在iPhone開發中起到舉足輕重作用，不過2008年，他從蘋果（Apple）的管理職位上辭職。過去兩年，法德爾一直在辛勤工作，秘密開發一款新的電子器件。和iPod類似，這款新玩意也是通過簡單的撥號盤控制。當然，和iPad一樣，它也會遭遇懷疑者們鋪天蓋地的質疑。因為這畢竟只是一款恒溫器。

????不過如果說iPod是一款非凡的音樂播放器，那么由法德爾帶領的新創企業Nest Labs打造的這款恒溫器也必定非同一般，和普通美國人家中用于控制供暖和空調的單調塑料小玩意肯定大不相同。Nest恒溫器于10月25日發布，有望在今年11月中旬上市。首先，它的外形設計非常優雅、簡潔，法德爾在這方面延續了他替前老板史蒂夫?喬布斯打工時掌握的手藝。更為重要的是，一如iPhone讓手機實現了智能化，Nest則希望賦予恒溫器以智慧：它能按照用戶的生活習慣和設定的溫度進行自我編程。它能不斷改進自己，根據用戶的出入進行溫度調整；用戶外出時，它還能自動關閉。

????法德爾稱Nest的設想來自蘋果。當初iPhone的設計理念并不是一部智能手機，而是一臺可以打電話的電腦。Nest在帕洛阿爾托市的辦公室并不起眼，最近法德爾在此接受了采訪。他說：“這并不是一部捆綁了很多通訊功能的恒溫器，而是一臺電腦兼通訊平臺，不過在此之上附加了一些恒溫器的功能。”它可以幫助人們減少能源支出。

????Nest恒溫器緣起于法德爾對現有設備的失望。法德爾曾在塔霍湖畔修建了一幢節能房屋。當時，建筑師向其請示恒溫器選擇，他拒絕了所有提議。法德爾表示：“應該有更好的選擇。”恒溫器控制著建筑大約50%的能耗，但這些年來，這些裝置并沒有多大改進。數百萬家庭仍在使用手動恒溫器。高級的可編程恒溫器很難使用而且需要不斷配置。“如果想實現節能的目標，就必須不斷地給恒溫器編程。”

????法德爾決定帶領來自蘋果、互聯網語音技術公司General Magic、數字媒體設備公司Sling Media和電視服務商Web TV等公司的精英們自行設計和開發Nest恒溫器，他還得到了凱鵬華盈（Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers）、谷歌風投（Google Ventures）等公司的資金支援。Nest恒溫器的外包裝盒非常精美，安裝起來也很容易。它的售價為249美元，將由百思買（Best Buy）等電子產品零售店直接出售給消費者。在最開始的一周，它需要手動調整。不過此后，由機器學習方面專家所設計的算法就能接班，開始自動設定溫度。這些算法會在用戶每次手動調整溫度時進行自我學習。恒溫器上的傳感器會不停監測溫度、濕度、環境光以及設備周邊和房間里遠離設備的其它動靜。法德爾表示：“我們能夠發現房間里是否有人。只需一周，我們就能了解用戶的日常作息習慣和溫度喜好。隨著時間推移，我們會不斷自我適應。”

????調整Nest恒溫器的溫度非常容易：只需將恒溫器的外圈向上或向下旋轉即可。點擊顯示屏，會出現直觀的菜單。恒溫器還能連接到屋內的Wi-Fi網絡中，用戶可以使用手機或平板電腦進行遠程遙控。通過PC和移動平臺的應用程序能監測能源消耗和節能情況。法德爾稱只需要大概一年，Nest恒溫器就能讓購買者從節能費用上收回購機成本。

????雖然Nest恒溫器的市場定位瞄準以iPhone為代表的新生代早期采用者，但法德爾稱潛在市場非常寬廣。美國家庭目前使用了1.5億個恒溫器，而小型辦公室和商業區也使用了大約1億個。每年約有1,000萬個新的恒溫器被售出。法德爾表示：“這個銷量和美國市場自行車的銷量相差無幾。”

????法德爾也許沒錯。不過人們愿意為自行車掏錢，而且許多愛好者會花大價錢購置自行車以相互炫耀。那么恒溫器呢？恐怕未必如此。因此Nest的未來真是很難預測。

????盡管如此，法德爾還是計劃繼續開發恒溫器之外的東西。就像Nest（意思是屋、巢——譯注）公司名字所預示的，該公司將繼續致力于家居產品。法德爾表示：“恒溫器是我們第一款產品。我們希望開發出更多的產品。家居用品市場缺乏創新，我們可以將設計天賦投注到更多恒溫器以外的設備上。”

????譯者：項航

????Tony Fadell has defied skeptics before. Ten years ago, when a slick gadget he conceived and helped to build hit the market, most analysts shrugged, saying the new tech toy would be irrelevant to most people. The prediction ranks among to top bloopers in the history of tech punditry. Fadell's gadget, the iPod, sold more than 300 million units and, in the process, revolutionized the music industry.

????Now Fadell, who has been called the "father of the iPod," is hoping to prove skeptics wrong one more time. After leading the team that built the iPod and playing a key role in the development of the iPhone, Fadell left his executive role at Apple (AAPL) in 2008. For the past two years, he has been hard at work quietly building a new electronic gadget. Like the iPod, it is controlled through a simple dial. And like the iPod, it's likely to be greeted with skepticism. It is, after all, a thermostat.

????But if the iPod was no ordinary music player, the thermostat built by Nest Labs, Fadell's startup, is nothing like the drab plastic devices that control heating and air conditioning in millions of American homes. For starters, the device, which is being introduced on Tuesday and will be available in mid-November, has the kind of elegant, minimalist design that Fadell learned while working for his former boss, Steve Jobs. More important, just like the iPhone made cellphones smart, Nest wants to bring intelligence to thermostats: the device programs itself based on your daily routines and the temperatures you set. It constantly refines itself, senses your comings and goings to adjust accordingly, and automatically turns itself off when you are away.

????Fadell says Nest was built on ideas that he learned at Apple, where the iPhone was conceived not as a cell phone with smarts, but rather as a computer that could make phone calls. "This is not a thermostat with a bunch of communications features," Fadell said during a recent interview in the company's unmarked offices in Palo Alto. "It is a computer and communications platforms with a little bit of thermostat." And it is designed to help people cut their energy bills, he said.

????The idea for Nest came out of frustration. Fadell was building an energy-efficient home near Lake Tahoe. When his contractor showed him his thermostat choices, Fadell balked. "There has to be something better," he said. While thermostats manage roughly 50% of a home's energy use, they haven't changed much in years. Millions of homes are stillequipped with manual thermostats. The more advanced programmable thermostats are difficult to use and require constant adjustments. "If you want to do any kind of energy savings, you are programming them all the time," Fadell says.

????With a team of veterans from Apple, General Magic, Sling Media and Web TV, and with financing from Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Google Ventures (GOOG) and others, Fadell set out to design and build the Nest thermostat. The device, which will be sold directly to consumers at electronic stores like Best Buy (BBY) for $249, comes in an elegant box and is easy to install. In the first week, it relies on manual adjustments. But after that, algorithms designed by machine learning experts, set the temperature automatically. Those algorithms refine themselves every time you manually adjust the temperature. Sensors constantly monitor temperature and humidity, as well as ambient light and activity near the device or farther away in the house. "We can see if there is anyone in your home," says Fadell. "We learn your schedule and your temperature preferences over a week. And we adapt continuously over time."

????Adjusting the Nest thermostat is easy: you simply rotate the outer ring up or down. Pushing on the display opens a set of intuitive menus. It also can connect to your home's Wi-Fi network, allowing you to control it remotely from a phone or tablet. PC and mobile apps allow you to monitor your energy use and savings. Fadell says that energy savings will help buyers recoup the cost of device in about a year.

????While the Nest thermostat is clearly aimed at early adopters in the iPhone generation, Fadell says the potential market is large. There are some 150 million thermostats in American homes and another 100 million in small offices and businesses. Every year, some 10 million new units are sold. "That's as many as bicycles are sold in the United States," he says.

????That may be true. But bicycle are toys that people love to play with and many fans will pay good money for bicycles they can show off. Thermostats? Not so much, which makes it all the more difficult to handicap's Nest future.

????Regardless, Fadell plans to push his company beyond thermostats. As the name Nest suggests, the company will continue to be focused on products for the home. "It's our first product," he says. "We have ambitions for more. There is a lack of innovation in the home and we can apply our design talents to things other than thermostats."