????雖然iPad極具誘惑力，但是在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期，很多人面對(duì)iPad高達(dá)500美元的售價(jià)還是會(huì)望而卻步。這就是為什么Kindle在這樣一個(gè)iPad時(shí)代里仍然能保持很高的銷量。早些時(shí)候曾有人認(rèn)為，蘋果的iBooks應(yīng)用和iPad版的Kindle應(yīng)用將使Kindle平板成為一款邊緣設(shè)備，現(xiàn)在這種臆斷也已不攻自破。

????老款的Kindle平板電腦的確不是一款所謂的邊緣產(chǎn)品。雖然亞馬遜不會(huì)披露Kindle平板的具體銷售數(shù)據(jù)，但據(jù)分析人士的估算，Kindle平板已經(jīng)賣出了數(shù)百萬(wàn)臺(tái)，很大程度上是因?yàn)樗氖蹆r(jià)只有139美元（現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)下降到了109美元，或是79美元的帶廣告版）。新款Kindle Fire的價(jià)格現(xiàn)為199美元，比之前盛傳的生產(chǎn)成本還低了20美元。

????亞馬遜Kindle Fire平板電腦的鎖定的目標(biāo)人群僅僅只是將平板電腦當(dāng)成一種娛樂(lè)設(shè)備，花500美元不值得，200美元?jiǎng)t剛剛好。早期的跡象已經(jīng)證明了這一點(diǎn)：Kindle Fire推出才5天，預(yù)訂用戶人數(shù)就超過(guò)了25萬(wàn)人，據(jù)科技博客Cult of Android的計(jì)算，這個(gè)速度已經(jīng)接近iPad 2發(fā)布時(shí)的情形。

????Kindle Fire發(fā)布后將不可避免地蠶食掉蘋果在平板電腦市場(chǎng)上的一部分份額，但這并不意味著它一定會(huì)減緩蘋果iPad的市場(chǎng)銷量。Kindle Fire正在低端市場(chǎng)上安營(yíng)扎寨，把高端市場(chǎng)留給了iPad。另外，隨著市場(chǎng)高低兩端主打內(nèi)容的平板電腦越來(lái)越多，總有一天，平板電腦在家庭中會(huì)像今天的電視一樣普遍。平板電腦市場(chǎng)總體會(huì)呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)加速，這股增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭會(huì)同時(shí)抬高亞馬遜和蘋果的銷量，推動(dòng)這兩家公司產(chǎn)品生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展。

????對(duì)于蘋果來(lái)說(shuō)，它的問(wèn)題很可能要等到幾年后才會(huì)浮出水面。蘋果必須努力在沒(méi)有喬布斯的情況下保持領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。而且隨著時(shí)間的推移，要保持iPad作為一款高端平板的吸引力也會(huì)越來(lái)越難（iPhone 4S的發(fā)布使一些人相信，在智能手機(jī)上，蘋果已經(jīng)開(kāi)始失去吸引力了）。

????隨著市場(chǎng)的成熟，產(chǎn)品也會(huì)日趨同質(zhì)化。這種現(xiàn)象在PC行業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)生過(guò)了：有些功能以前只屬于某些高級(jí)產(chǎn)品，但它們漸漸會(huì)普及到低端市場(chǎng)上，這時(shí)價(jià)格就成了左右消費(fèi)者選擇的重要因素。出現(xiàn)這種現(xiàn)象時(shí)，高端市場(chǎng)就會(huì)縮水，變成一個(gè)小眾市場(chǎng)。

????蘋果的Macbook系列筆記本使蘋果在高端PC市場(chǎng)上處于一個(gè)贏利的增長(zhǎng)地位，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)上一臺(tái)筆記本的價(jià)格動(dòng)輒數(shù)百美元。未來(lái)幾年里，iPad也會(huì)成為平板電腦市場(chǎng)上的高端產(chǎn)品。然而，一旦平板電腦成為廉價(jià)商品，蘋果就必須下大力氣，才能保證它在創(chuàng)新上的吸引力。屆時(shí)，蘋果必須再?gòu)乃哪Х弊永铩白儭背鲆粋€(gè)全新的重磅炸彈。

????譯者：樸成奎

????As appealing as an iPad is, many people in these tough economic times have held off on spending $500 for a tablet computer. That's a big reason why the Kindle has remained a hot seller in the age of the iPad, defying early predictions that the iBooks and Kindle apps on the iPad would turn the Kindle into a fringe device.

????Indeed, the original Kindle was not a fringe product. Amazon won't disclose Kindles sales figures, but analysts estimate several million have sold, thanks in good part to its $139 price tag (now reduced to $109, or $79 with ads). The Kindle Fire is selling for $199 -- $20 less than it reportedly costs to make.

????With the Kindle Fire, Amazon is betting that people who see a tablet as an entertainment device might think $500 is too rich, but $200 is worth it. Early indications validate that: More than 250,000 pre-orders were placed for the Kindle Fire in the first five days, a pace that Cult of Android reckons is close to the iPad 2's launch.

????When the Kindle Fire launches, it will inevitably eat into Apple's share of the tablet market. But that won't necessarily mean it's slowing Apple's sales of the iPad. The Kindle Fire is setting up camp at the low-end of the market, leaving the high-end for the iPad. And with a robust offering of content-rich tablets at both ends of the market, tablets could become a device as ubiquitous in homes as the TV is today. The overall industry could see growth accelerate -- the proverbial rising tide that will lift sales at Amazon and Apple alike, boosting both firms' ecosystems.

????For Apple, the concern is more likely to surface a few years down the road. Apple will be pushing to maintain its leadership without Steve Jobs, and maintaining the iPad's allure as a high-end tablet will be grow harder in time (the iPhone 4S announcement left some convinced this is already happening in smartphones.)

????When markets mature they become commoditized over time. This happened in the PC industry: What were once features exclusive to premium products migrate slowly down to the lower-end of the market, and price becomes the paramount factor for consumers. When that happens, the high-end gets smaller, becoming a niche.

????Apple's Macbooks have given it a lucrative and growing position at the high-end of a PC market where most of the machines sold are commodities priced at a several hundred dollars. For the next few years, the iPad will do the same in the tablet market. But once tablets become low-priced commodities, Apple will have its work cut out for it to retain the iPad's innovative allure. That's when it'll have to pull the next big thing out of its hat.