????千禧危機（Y2K）并非一無是處。世紀之交，由于擔心電腦失靈，人們普遍陷于情緒失控狀態，這種局面直接將印度的IT產業推上了世界舞臺。這是因為，要檢查無數行程序中可能存在的錯誤代碼，非印度龐大的低成本技術勞動力大軍莫屬。當時，技術巨頭印孚瑟斯技術公司（Infosys），威普羅公司（Wipro）和高知特公司（Cognizant）等公司乘勢而起。隨后的十年間，它們奠定了在業界的地位，成為全球多家公司首選的服務供應商。明年，印度IT產業的出口收入預計將增長約10倍，達到680億美元。其中，Infosys公司甚至促使托馬斯?弗里德曼提出了一個影響深遠的觀點——“世界是平的”。

????但是現在，印度IT業發現，自己將很快逼近另一個重大轉折關頭。十多年來，這可能將是最重大的考驗。印度的薪資上漲幅度在亞洲獨占鰲頭。過去十年的大部分年份中，薪資一直以兩位數的幅度不斷提高。而來自菲律賓、東歐和拉美等這些工資水平較低的國家或地區的競爭正在加劇，對印度IT業定價的壓力日益增大。與此同時，更簡捷輕便、利潤更菲薄的軟件解決方案，昂貴而復雜的軟件部署正節節敗退。比如，創建一個Salesforce網站（專門支持客戶關系管理系統CRM）就無法像甲骨文公司（Oracle）部署一套電子商務軟件Siebel那么有利可圖。簡言之，印度IT業當前面臨的轉變與十年前如出一轍。而當時，正是它親手促成了轉變的發生。

????由于利潤率急劇下降，物流系統日益復雜，目前這種依托于服務的產業模式可能會不斷喪失吸引力。比如，William Blair & Co.投資公司的分析師巴文?蘇瑞稱，Infosys公司如果要維持現在的增長率，在未來五年內，它必須將自己的招聘規模擴大5倍，即每年招聘10萬名新員工。蘇瑞說：“招聘、培訓并管理如此龐大的員工隊伍的難度超乎想象，幾乎是不可能完成的任務。”

????為了避免即將到來的經營困境，印度IT寄希望于實現從服務向產品轉型。這一跨越難度頗大，迄今收效甚微。就產品而言，它只有兩個選擇：生產或者采購。

????因此，開發傳統產品很快成了這個行業的發展目標，此舉能讓各大公司收入增長，同時卻無須大批招人，又大批外派。太平洋證券公司（Pacific Securities）的分析師納比爾?艾瑟莎稱，實現這種“非線性”（non-linearity）的收入增長無異于找到了可以重新煥發生機的“不老泉”（fountain of youth）。但是，這些公司服務型文化根深蒂固，想依靠生產產品來再現輝煌，頗值得懷疑。Infosys公司的銀行業應用軟件Finacle算是其中翹楚。此外，這些公司還開發了一些細分市場的應用軟件產品，如Wipro公司的一款無線設備。即便是較老式的網絡也能運行這款設備，遠程監控病人的情況，這算是軟件公司與既有客戶聯合開發的產品的范例。然而，除了這些產品之外，像樣的例子寥寥無幾。

????相對而言，收購比起另起爐灶自造產品來說是更好的選擇。大筆現金正是他們的利器。Infosys, Wipro和Cognizant這三大巨頭手頭共有86億美元的巨額現金。此外，現金占這三大公司總市值約12%的份額，與美國互聯網巨頭雅虎公司（Yahoo）和eBay公司的這一比例旗鼓相當。此前，這些印度公司曾表示有意進行海外收購，但展開更大手筆收購的意愿似乎正在加強。

????上周，塔塔咨詢服務公司（Tata Consulting Services）的首席執行官稱，公司正在謀求全球范圍內的收購。但是，Infosys公司日益顯著的擴張態勢更值得關注。該公司此前曾在競購中敗在更為咄咄逼人的競爭對手手下。最近，公司任命了一位曾掌管印度最大的私有銀行的人士擔任董事長，這樣的履歷堪稱強化收購的理想行業背景。這一任命被業內視為“一朝被蛇咬十年怕井繩”的典型反應。實際上，本月早些時候，業界就有傳聞，稱Infosys公司即將以7.5億美元的價格收購湯姆森路透(Thomson Reuters)公司旗下的保健分公司。此外，上周五的報道還稱它也是商業信息分析服務商Core Logic公司的潛在收購者。

????萬事俱備，只缺行動。數年來，印度IT業始終面臨各種重大轉變。現在，印度IT行業的現金儲備讓其有資本更大膽地押寶下注，因此種種傳言和猜測就比以往更為甚囂塵上。然而迄今為止，印度IT業真正出手的案例還并不多見。未來的收購大潮將標志著印度IT業真正迎來轉折點，屆時，其影響將與數年前的千禧危機如出一轍。

????譯者：清遠

????Y2K wasn't all bad. The millennial hysteria surrounding the dreaded glitch pushed the Indian IT industry onto the world stage, its armies of low-cost technical labor ideally suited to checking endless lines of potentially bad code. Giants Infosys, Wipro and Cognizant took the boost and, over the next decade, cemented their positions as go-to service providers for companies around the world. The industry saw export revenue climb roughly tenfold to an expected $68 billion in the coming year. Infosys even sparked Thomas Friedman's influential "flat world" argument.

????But now, the industry finds itself fast approaching another crucial juncture, possibly its most significant in more than a decade. Indian wage inflation is the highest in Asia; salaries have posted double-digit gains over much of the last decade. Increasing competition from low-wage countries like the Philippines, Eastern Europe and Latin America is putting more pressure on pricing. At the same time, expensive and complex software deployments are quickly losing ground to lighter, far less lucrative models. Setting up Salesforce.com (CRM), for example, doesn't bring in what a Siebel implementation from Oracle (ORCL) would. Simply put, the industry faces changes similar to the ones it helped launch a decade ago.

????The current services-based model is likely to keep losing appeal as margins crumble and logistics become increasingly complex. Infosys (INFY), for example, would have to quintuple recruiting to 100,000 new employees a year within five years to sustain current growth rates, according to William Blair & Co. analyst Bhavan Suri. "Recruiting, training and managing this many people is an incredibly hard and almost unmanageable task," Suri says.

????In order to evade the coming crunch, the industry is pinning its hopes on being able to tack from services to products. The jump will be difficult and there are few results to show so far. As far as products are concerned, it has two options: build them or buy them.

????Developing traditional products that allow companies to grow revenue without bringing in and renting out new headcount is quickly becoming the goal for the industry. Getting to this "non-linearity" of revenue would be akin to the fountain of youth, according to Nabil Elsheshai, an analyst at Pacific Securities. That companies with services cultures will flourish in creating products is questionable, though. Infosys' banking application Finacle is one standout.

????There have been some niche applications too, like a Wipro (WIT) wireless device that can be used to monitor patients remotely even over older networks, an example of a product created in conjunction with an existing client. Aside from these, however, examples are few and far between.

????Buying could trump building from scratch. A vast stockpile of cash helps; Infosys, Wipro and Cognizant (CTSH) have amassed $8.6 billion between them. What's more, cash accounts for about 12% of the total market cap for all three, rivaling the proportion of US internet companies like Yahoo (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY). Indian companies have signaled a willingness to buy overseas before. But the appetite for bigger deals may be on the rise.

????Last week, the CEO of Tata Consulting Services said the company was looking to make purchases around the world. But it's the increased aggressiveness on the part of Infosys that could prove more noteworthy. Seen as gun-shy for having lost deals to more aggressive competitors before, the company's recently appointed chairman previously ran India's biggest private bank -- a good background for deal-making. Indeed, reports swirled earlier in the month that Infosys was close to buying the healthcare arm of Thomson Reuters (TRI) for as much as $750 million. On Friday, the company was also cited as a potential acquirer for business analytics company Core Logic.

????What's missing? Concrete action. The Indian IT industry has been facing fundamental changes for years. Now, rumors and speculation are swirling more than usual, as the industry's cash hoard puts it in a position to make bold bets. So far, few such bets have been placed. A wave of big acquisitions could indeed mark the turning point, much the way Y2K did many years ago.