????談及綠色技術，我們很容易對一些壞消息耿耿于懷。風險投資已進入該領域整整十年，獲得的回報喜憂參半。碳排放稅遲遲未能獲得進展，而且美國的能源政策可謂朝令夕改。

????雖然面臨諸多不順，但我們正在面臨著一場由信息技術發起的革命，它將改變我們的能源市場并在未來幾年創造出巨大的商業機遇。

????日前，在美國科羅拉多州阿斯潘市召開的《財富》科技頭腦風暴的一次午餐圓桌討論中，與會者達成了上述共識。落基山脈研究院（Rocky Mountain Institute）創始人兼首席科學家埃莫利?洛溫斯表示：“能源技術與IT技術相結合為能源系統帶來了通訊技術、實在的定價以及實時反饋，我們現在可以做到許多就在幾年前還無法做到的事。”

????Manifest能源投資公司（Manifest Energy）的安迪?卡斯納對此表示贊同?？ㄋ辜{稱，在美國新的財政保守主義下，隨著信息技術與能源技術相結合，人們會越來越關注由此產生的節能方面的巨大商機?！澳壳埃覀円呀浘邆渫茝V這些技術的經濟條件與氛圍?！?/p>

????專注于研究先進商業規劃的咨詢公司——全球商業網絡公司（Global Business Network）負責人皮特?舒瓦茨認為，（清潔能源企業的）創造性毀滅將會帶來科技進步。第一波清潔能源投資大潮大約開始于2000年，不過當時許多關于將技術推向市場所需時間的預期都非常不切實際。舒瓦茨表示，“能源領域不像IT和軟件。不可能一夜之間出現Facebook這樣的公司。”舒瓦茨預言很多公司將在近期倒閉，不過對投資者而言，那些日趨成熟的技術仍然是很好的投資目標。

????與會者還認為，消費者們將來有更多汽車燃料可供選擇。卡納斯表示，對于政府而言，比較好的做法是要求所有汽車都能使用多種燃料?？{斯說：“政府應該介入此事。大眾也有權利進行自由選擇。”將來很多能源都會比汽油更便宜也更清潔。

????舒瓦茨表示，新能源進入市場之前的過渡期將會“混亂無章”。但他預言到2020年，絕大部分新車將會使用電動發電機。“不過電能的來源目前還不得而知。”

????譯者：項航

????When it comes to green tech, it's easy to dwell on the bad news. A decade of venture capital investments have so far produced mixed returns. The carbon tax hasn't gotten off the ground. And let's just say that U.S. energy policy could be more coherent.

????Yet, despite it all, we're poised for a wave of innovation—boosted by information technology—that will transform our energy markets and create huge new business opportunities in coming years.

????That was the consensus at a lunchtime roundtable discussion at Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo. "It's energy meets IT," said Amory Lovins, founder and chief scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute. "Pervading the energy system with communication technology, honest pricing, and real-time feedback enables a lot of things we couldn't do even a few years ago."

????That sentiment was echoed by Andy Karsner, of investment firm Manifest Energy. Karsner said that the new fiscal conservatism permeating the country will help focus people on enormous opportunities for energy conservation as megabytes meet megawatts. "We now have the economics and the environment" to go with the technology, he said.

????Progress will be aided by a wave of creative destruction, said Peter Schwartz, head of the Global Business Network, a consulting firm that specializes in advanced business planning. The first big wave of clean tech investment that began around 2000 was built around a lot of unrealistic expectations, he said, about the time it would take to bring technology to market. "Energy is not the same as IT and software," said Schwartz. "You don't get a Facebook overnight in energy." Schwartz predicted that a lot of companies would fail in the near-term, but that there would be great investment opportunities for investors to put money into technology that's just getting ripe.

????Consumers can expect a proliferation of options for the fuels they put in their cars, the panelists agreed. And Karsner said that a good role for government would be to insist that all vehicles run on multiple types of fuel. "That should be the intervention of the government," said Karsner. "It should be the empowerment of the consumer." There are myriad fuels that could be cheaper and cleaner than gasoline, he said.

????The transition period as those fuels come to market will be "chaotic," said Schwartz. But by 2020, he predicted, most new cars will have their wheels turned by electric motors. "Exactly where the electricity comes from is less clear," he said.