????谷歌（Google）、手機支付商Square、財捷（Intuit）等企業都在開發移動支付平臺上投入了大量心力，據傳蘋果（Apple）也已加入了戰團。移動支付技術的長期潛力已變得越來越明晰。不過現在仍然很難預測這個襁褓中的產業究竟將如何演化下去。

????這幾家公司的服務都是立足將移動設備當成一個信用交易平臺來使用，只是方法各有不同。谷歌錢包（Google Wallet）功能使安卓系統的智能手機只需在可兼容的讀卡器前面輕輕一刷，便可完成支付。而Square以及財捷的GoPayment服務則需將一個小型信用卡讀卡器插入手機的耳機插孔。尤其Square的移動支付服務更是蒸蒸日上。這家由杰克?多爾西創辦的初創公司只有兩年半的歷史，上周該公司在10億美元估值的基礎上，又募集了1億美元的資金，使它再度成為新聞頭條的主角。

????移動支付發展到這一步，我們更容易發現此類服務的一些更深遠、更直接的好處。有了Square和GoPayment，任何商家都可以接受數字化支付，而無需花費數百美元去購置傳統的信用卡交易機。而且谷歌錢包等服務也意味著你也許再也不必帶信用卡出門了。另外，長遠看來，移動支付的發展還可能帶來一些極為誘人的可能。

（1）實時反饋

????一般來說，商家可能最多要等上兩個星期的時間，才能獲得反饋，知道老式的紙質優惠券在顧客中的使用情況如何。有了近場通訊技術（Near Field Communications），商家可以立即收到來自顧客的智能手機的反饋，而且這些反饋更加豐富和詳盡。印孚瑟斯公司（Infosys）銀行與資本市場集團的負責人拉斯?斯卡里表示，商家和營銷人員可以以小時為單位對手頭上的優惠券消費數據進行解析，檢驗不同時間段優惠券的總體使用率，從而便于商家抽空調整優惠券的折扣率。

（2） 利用GPS功能

????假如消費者可以隨心所欲地更改手機的隱私設置，那么智能手機的GPS將使手機的地點敏感型功能發展到一個新的高度。

????谷歌商業部副總裁斯蒂芬尼?蒂樂紐斯于今年早些時候指出，近場通訊技術可能使我們的日常生活變得更加輕松。比如說如果你在GAP牌服飾的門店里看上了一條牛仔褲，但是你的尺碼恰好賣光了，那么你只要刷一下你的智能手機，商家就會將符合你尺寸的牛仔褲寄給你。

????斯卡里給出了一個更加具體的例子。當一個購物者步入一家超市時，他的手機會收到一條根據他過去在本超市的購物史而編制的購物清單。就在他一邊沿著貨架間的通道走，一邊尋找諸如速凍匹薩之類的商品時，他的手機里就會收到這些商品的優惠券。其他超市為了吸引這名消費者前去購物，甚至有可能修改他們的優惠券，向消費者提供更大的折扣。如果用戶輸入社交網絡賬號，他們還會獲得更多的信息，比如朋友們最近買過什么，以及他們都推薦了哪些品牌等。

（3）更便捷的銀行體驗

????谷歌錢包等移動支付服務可能無法取代商業銀行的業務模式，但卻可以改變顧客與商業銀行的互動方式。

????現在谷歌錢包淘汰信用卡的勢頭已經初現端倪。斯卡里指出，移動支付服務的下一個合理的發展方向，應該是要能夠支付各種賬單，成為銀行與顧客之間的橋梁，并且提供一個簡單明了的用戶界面，使銀行與顧客之間能夠進行無縫互動。

????聽起來有些不切實際？或許吧。不過考慮到這些公司都擅長提供輕松的用戶體驗，因此上述的種種情形還是可能的。斯卡里表示：“谷歌、Square以及理財網站Mint等公司更加著眼于真實的零售環境，他們正在全面入侵30歲以下消費群體的各個重要的細分市場。”

????Square的首席運營官基思?拉布伊斯也支持這一論斷——至少他對自己的公司很有信心。拉布伊斯宣稱，Square的市值有95%的勝算會在未來的某一天超過eBay的貝寶（PayPal），其文化意義也有50%的可能性會超過貝寶。

????“我們并非僅局限于電子商務，”他說：“我們使真實世界的電子支付成為可能，這是一個更大也更有價值的市場。”

????譯者：樸成奎

????As companies like Google (GOOG), Square, Intuit (INTU) and, reportedly, Apple (AAPL) place their bets on some form of mobile payments, the technology's long-term potential becomes clear. What's harder to envision is exactly how this nascent industry will evolve.

????Each company's service manages to transform mobile devices into a credit-transaction device, although their approaches vary. Google Wallet lets Android smartphones make payments simply by swiping or tapping them in front of compatible readers. Meanwhile, Square and Intuit's GoPayment services rely on credit-card readers that plug into audio jacks. Square in particular is thriving: Jack Dorsey's two-and-a-half-year-old startup made headlines again this week when it raised $100 million at a $1 billion valuation.

????At this point, it's easier to glean the broader, more immediate benefits of such services. With Square and GoPayment, any merchant can handle digital payments without having to shell out hundreds of dollars for a traditional credit card transaction machine. And services like Google Wallet may mean you never have to carry around plastic again. Beyond that, however, there are longer-term possibilities for mobile payments that are especially tantalizing:

1.) Real-time feedback.

????It can take up to two weeks for merchants to receive feedback as to how well a plain-old paper coupon performed with customers. With Near Field Communications (NFC), feedback from smartphones could be instantaneous, richer and more detailed. Lars Skari, who heads Infosys' banking and capital markets group, said merchants and marketers can parse through available data on coupon purchases hour-by-hour, examining overall coupon adoption rates over time. That information would allow them to adjust coupon discounts on the fly.

2.) Tapping the GPS

????Assuming consumers can opt in and tweak privacy settings to their hearts' desire, the smartphone's GPS could add a new level of location-sensitive features.

????Earlier this year, Stephanie Tilenius, Google's VP of Commerce, suggested that NFC could make every day life easier: If you find some jeans in a Gap (GAP) store but they're out of your size, a scan of your smartphone can make sure a pair will be sent to you.

????Skari offers a more detailed example. When a shopper walks into the supermarket, his smartphone could receive a customized shopping list based on his shopping history there. As he walks down an aisle looking for say, frozen pizza, he'll receive coupons for them. Other supermarkets could try to entice him through their doors by modifying their coupons and offering deeper discounts. If users plug in their social accounts, they get even more information, such as what their friends recently purchased or which brands they recommend.

3.) An easier banking experience

????Services like Google Wallet likely won't upend the business models of commercial banks, but could alter the way customers interact with them.

????Already, Google Wallet promises to make plastic obsolete. Skari suggests the next logical step would be for such services to handle billing payments as well, acting as an intermediary between banks and customers and providing a simple, clean user interface that lets them interact seamlessly.

????Sound far fetched? Maybe, but given that these companies all excel in providing painless user experiences, it's a possibility. "Companies like your Google, Mint, Square and others are coming from more of a true retail environment," says Skari. "They're starting to make inroads into that very important customer segment" of consumers under 30.

????Square COO Keith Rabois supports that assertion -- as least with regards to his company -- claiming that the startup has a 95% chance of one day becoming more valuable than eBay's (EBAY) PayPal and a 50% chance of becoming more culturally relevant.

????"We are not limited to just e-commerce," he said. "We enable real world payments, which is a much bigger market and is more valuable."