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翹首以盼iPhone 5

翹首以盼iPhone 5

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011-04-15
關(guān)于iPhone 5的面世時(shí)間,可謂眾說(shuō)紛紜:從今年6月末到2012年年初都有人猜。發(fā)布時(shí)間有那么重要嗎?答案是肯定的。
圖片來(lái)源:Nowhere Else

????開春時(shí),蘋果迷們往往都在忙著猜測(cè)下一代iPhone會(huì)推出哪些新特性。上圖是法國(guó)站點(diǎn)別無(wú)他處(Nowhere Else)制作的信息圖形。該圖對(duì)現(xiàn)存的幾種猜想進(jìn)行了精辟的總結(jié)。

????但是今年,有消息說(shuō),在將于6月份舉行的蘋果全球開發(fā)人員大會(huì)(Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference)上,不會(huì)推出iPhone5。此消息一出,人們的猜測(cè)也整個(gè)跟著變了。關(guān)注點(diǎn)不再是蘋果到底會(huì)推出哪些新特性,而是新iPhone何時(shí)會(huì)問(wèn)世。

????在本周二發(fā)給客戶的文件中,Susquehanna公司的杰夫?費(fèi)達(dá)卡羅表示,經(jīng)過(guò)核實(shí),“確認(rèn)”iPhone5的發(fā)布將會(huì)推遲到今秋;美林公司(Merrill Lynch)的斯科特?克雷格則稱,新iPhone的發(fā)布“不太可能”推遲;而Ticonderoga公司的布萊恩?懷特建議投資者們不要對(duì)準(zhǔn)確的發(fā)布日期糾纏不休。懷特表示,即便蘋果公司的銷售額在一個(gè)季度內(nèi)有所損失,也很可能會(huì)在接下來(lái)的季度里好轉(zhuǎn)。

????也許他說(shuō)的沒(méi)錯(cuò)。但是,眼下一大批搭載谷歌(Google)Android操作系統(tǒng)的手機(jī)不斷問(wèn)世,構(gòu)成的威脅不可小視,因此蘋果也不可能永遠(yuǎn)這么拖下去。

????按照上述理解,我們將有關(guān)iPhone 5發(fā)布的傳聞按其出現(xiàn)時(shí)間進(jìn)行排列,并且一一做了注解。

????2月11日和14日:《彭博商業(yè)周刊》(Bloomberg Businessweek )和《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal )分別報(bào)道,蘋果將于“今夏”發(fā)布兩款新iPhone:1)iPhone 4的后繼產(chǎn)品;2)更為小巧、價(jià)格也相對(duì)便宜的iPhone。兩篇報(bào)道推出的時(shí)間恰到好處,就像枚炸彈,擾亂了彼時(shí)正于巴塞羅那舉行的世界移動(dòng)通信大會(huì)(Mobile World Congress)。而蘋果并未參加此次大會(huì)。可信度:中等。

????3月28日: The Loop的吉姆?道里姆波爾曾是Macworld雜志的新聞編輯,在蘋果公司擁有可靠的消息來(lái)源。他撰文表示,蘋果全球開發(fā)人員大會(huì)的主題演講安排在6月6日進(jìn)行,屆時(shí)該公司不會(huì)發(fā)布任何硬件產(chǎn)品。自2007年起,所有新iPhone每年都是在該盛會(huì)上推出的。可信度:高。

????3月30日:兩名華爾街分析師警告客戶說(shuō),今夏不會(huì)有新iPhone問(wèn)世;蘋果股票將遭受重創(chuàng)。同時(shí),道里姆波爾私下里亦進(jìn)一步解釋說(shuō),他在蘋果的線人并未排除在全球開發(fā)人員大會(huì)外,蘋果在其他場(chǎng)合發(fā)布iPhone的可能性。可信度:中等。

????4月4日:韓國(guó)站點(diǎn)ETNews.co.kr稱,據(jù)MacRumors消息,蘋果已“確認(rèn)”將于6月的第四周發(fā)布iPhone 5。不過(guò)道里姆波爾的線人稱該報(bào)導(dǎo)“完全錯(cuò)誤”。可信度:低。

????4月8日:Ticonderoga公司的布萊恩?懷特從遠(yuǎn)東發(fā)回報(bào)告,對(duì)其客戶表示,對(duì)于iPhone 5將于今秋發(fā)布的說(shuō)法,他越來(lái)越心存疑慮。他表示,盡管手中并無(wú)確鑿的證據(jù),但是對(duì)蘋果“供應(yīng)鏈內(nèi)部運(yùn)營(yíng)活動(dòng)模式”的了解,使他對(duì)廣為流傳的iPhone 5發(fā)布推遲的說(shuō)法產(chǎn)生了質(zhì)疑。他分析說(shuō),蘋果很可能將iPhone 5牌“深藏不露”,以避免6月之前iPhone 4的銷量出現(xiàn)下降。可信度:中等。

????4月11日:我們對(duì)波士頓的市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Avian Securities并不熟悉。該公司在一份未簽名的報(bào)告中對(duì)其客戶表示,iPhone 5將于9月開始投產(chǎn),這與iPhone 5將推遲到秋天發(fā)布的說(shuō)法相一致,但該公司并未如此表示。相反,它改變?cè)掝}說(shuō),《商業(yè)周刊》和《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》分別于2月的報(bào)道中提到的小型iPhone的技術(shù)參數(shù)尚未出臺(tái),這意味著“iPhone 5將于2011年末或者更可能是2012年才能正式上市。” Avian Securities的報(bào)告中有幾處將《商業(yè)周刊》和《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的報(bào)道揉到了一起,并建議說(shuō),iPhone 5很可能會(huì)推遲到明年發(fā)布。蘋果股票會(huì)再度遭受重創(chuàng)。可信度:低。

????吉姆?道里姆波爾是這一切的始作俑者。我們問(wèn)他相信哪個(gè)說(shuō)法。“肯定不會(huì)于6月上市,所以這個(gè)說(shuō)法肯定錯(cuò)了。”他表示:“我認(rèn)為iPhone 5會(huì)在今年圣誕假期購(gòu)物季之前上市。”

????言之有理。

????譯者:大海

????In early spring the folks who obsess about Apple (AAPL) are usually busy speculating about what features to expect in the next iteration of the iPhone -- a game neatly summarized in an infographic produced by the French site Nowhere Else, from which the image at right was taken.

????But this year, reports that there will be no iPhone 5 announced at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June has launched a whole new level of speculation, not about what Apple is building, but when it will arrive.

????In notes issued to clients Tuesday, Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro said his checks "confirm" a delay until fall, Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig pronounced the delay "not likely," and Ticonderoga's Brian White advised investors not to get "hung up" on the exact date. Any sales Apple misses in one quarter, White says, are likely to get picked up the next.

????Perhaps. But with a pack of Google (GOOG) Android phones breathing down its neck, Apple can't wait forever.

????With that in mind, we've put together an annotated timeline of the iPhone 5 launch rumors. See below the fold.

????? Feb. 11, 14: Bloomberg Businessweek and the Wall Street Journal separately report that Apple is preparing two new iPhones: 1) a successor to the iPhone 4 and 2) a smaller, cheaper iPhone for release "this summer." The reports are perfectly timed to disrupt the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, which Apple did not attend. Credibility: medium.

????? March 28: The Loop's Jim Dalrymple, a former Macworld news editor with good Apple sources, reports that the company has "closed the door" on any hardware announcements at the June 6 WWDC keynote, which is where new iPhones have been announced every year since 2007. Credibility: high.

????? March 30: Two Wall Street analysts warn clients that summer may come and go without a new iPhone; Apple shares takes a hit. Dalrymple clarifies privately that his sources did not rule out an iPhone announcement in another venue besides WWDC. Credibility: medium.

????? April 4: A Korean website, ETNews.co.kr, claims that Apple has "confirmed" that the iPhone 5 will be released the fourth week of June, according to MacRumors. Dalrymple's sources shoot down the report as "completely false." Credibility: low.

????? April 8: Ticonderoga's Brian White, reporting from the Far East, tells clients he is becoming increasingly suspicious of reports of a fall launch. He doesn't have a smoking gun, but says there is a "pattern of activity in motion within the supply chain" that makes him question the widely reported delay. Apple may be keeping its iPhone 5 cards "extra close to the vest," he suggests, to avoid a fall-off of iPhone 4 sales as June approaches. Credibility: medium.

????? April 11: An unsigned report from Avian Securities, a Boston-based firm we're not familiar with, tells clients that that production for the iPhone 5 will begin in September -- consistent with a fall launch, although Avian doesn't say so. Instead, it changes the subject and reports that specs for the smaller iPhone that the Journal and Businessweek were writing about in February still haven't arrived, which suggests "a very late 2011 or more likely a 2012 event." Several accounts of the Avian note conflate the two reports and suggest that the iPhone 5 might be pushed back to next year. Apple shares take another hit. Credibility: low.

????We asked Jim Dalrymple -- who started this all -- where he would put his money. "It's definitely not coming in June, so that's out," he says. "I think we'll see it before the holiday shopping season."

????That sounds like a good bet.

?

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