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? 美國總統唐納德·特朗普在就職典禮前幾天發行了自己的網紅幣$TRUMP。金融學教授倫納德·考斯托文斯基對《財富》雜志表示,這款網紅幣80%由特朗普集團(Trump Organization)的附屬公司持有,如果這些公司突然出售網紅幣,將以投資者的利益為代價,讓總統賺得盆滿缽滿。
美國總統唐納德·特朗普上周發行了自己的網紅幣$TRUMP,這讓他幾乎在一夜之間變成了加密貨幣億萬富翁。但一位金融專家表示,如果特朗普集團的附屬公司CIC Digital和CIC共同控股的Fight Fight Fight有限責任公司決定出售它們所持有的80%的代幣,特朗普的財富將暴漲,但投資者會蒙受損失。
特朗普于1月17日發行了自己的網紅幣,并且在他就職后的幾天內,這款網紅幣的價值從不到10美元飆升至高達74.59美元,市值接近150億美元。盡管隨后其價值減半至約39美元,但根據巴魯克學院(Baruch College)齊克林商學院(Zicklin School of Business)金融學副教授倫納德·考斯托文斯基的說法,如果特朗普集團的附屬公司出售其持有的網紅幣,特朗普的財富實際上可能翻兩番。
特朗普集團是特朗普家族開展經營活動的實體,該集團發布了一項道德協議,禁止特朗普在其總統任期內參與“日常”經營活動。
總統在網紅幣中的實際利益,引發了對利益沖突和特朗普承諾在第二任期內加強加密貨幣合法性的擔憂。但最令人擔憂的是,如果特朗普突然將網紅幣變現,特朗普集團對網紅幣的主要所有權對投資者意味著什么。
考斯托文斯基對《財富》雜志表示:“對投資者而言,這當然是一個巨大的警告信號。除了其他人愿意為其支付的價格以外,所有網紅幣都沒有任何實際價值。它們是純粹的泡沫。”
特朗普集團已經實時看到了這種情況。$TRUMP發行兩天后,特朗普推出了第一夫人的網紅幣$MELANIA。不久之后,特朗普的代幣就暴跌至每股約40美元。
特朗普-萬斯過渡團隊沒有立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
拉地毯騙局的風險
考斯托文斯基表示,盡管代幣價格幾乎立即暴跌,但特朗普集團仍愿意發行其他家庭成員的網紅幣,這表明存在拉地毯騙局的可能性,即該集團愿意通過抬高代幣的價值以出售持有的代幣獲利,而這種情況通常以其他投資者的利益為代價。
考斯托文斯基表示:“已經有人認為,他們希望將這些代幣變現。他們會想要盡快從中獲得盡可能多的現金,而不是慢慢操作,讓投資者的代幣能夠吸收任何新代幣帶來的流動性。”
內部人士和主要利益相關者是這種拉地毯騙局的受益者。上個月,TikTok網紅哈莉·韋爾奇(也被稱為“Hawk Tuah女孩”)發行了一種網紅幣,市值一度達到近5億美元,但一周后暴跌了95%。一小部分內部人士從價格飆升中獲利300萬美元,而散戶投資者則損失慘重。
這些不受監管的代幣的推廣者存在陷入法律泥潭的風險。2022年10月,金·卡戴珊被指控在社交媒體上宣傳加密貨幣但未披露她所獲得的報酬,向證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)支付了126萬美元和解金。一項訴訟指控卡戴珊和其他名人宣傳一款代幣,抬高其價值,構成了“泡沫炒作”騙局,目的是在投資者出售代幣之前抬高價格。
避免尷尬
考斯托文斯基建議,特朗普有充分的理由避免類似的“泡沫炒作”騙局。總統持有網紅幣的主要風險并非來自財務方面,而是在信譽方面。如果特朗普的代幣崩盤,這會產生糟糕的影響。
特朗普網紅幣的表現作為一個量化指標,可以衡量追隨者對總統的信心。特朗普網紅幣的網站表示,購買$TRUMP是一種對總統表達支持的方式,而不是投資機會。如果$TRUMP代幣的價值因大規模拋售而進一步崩潰,這可能給民眾對特朗普任期的信心產生不良影響。
考斯托文斯基表示:“鑒于特朗普對任何與其表現或財富有關的事情都非常敏感,這可能會讓他感到尷尬。”
加密貨幣的合法性
特朗普網紅幣價格的突然拋售也會對加密貨幣圈產生影響。在競選期間,特朗普承諾將美國打造成“世界加密貨幣之都”,并創建一個目前由政府持有的比特幣“戰略儲備”。
特朗普大量持有自己的網紅幣可能會破壞與加密貨幣支持者的關系。如果特朗普出售他所持有的網紅幣,隨后獲得數十億美元的收益,這將提供證據,證明加密貨幣就是個騙局。
商業管理咨詢公司StoneTurn的合伙人凱拉·柯利對CNN表示:“通常情況下,任何網紅幣的發行都會讓那些認真對待加密貨幣的使用、合法性和安全性的人感到不滿。”然而,她表示,特朗普持有網紅幣與他監管加密貨幣的愿望并不矛盾。
相反,考斯托文斯基表示,如果為了表示對特朗普的支持而誕生的網紅幣激增,并引導更多的追隨者進入加密貨幣領域,這對總統來說是個好消息。
他表示:“加密貨幣圈的大多數傳統觀念認為,這并不是好事,但情況也可能會更糟糕。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
? 美國總統唐納德·特朗普在就職典禮前幾天發行了自己的網紅幣$TRUMP。金融學教授倫納德·考斯托文斯基對《財富》雜志表示,這款網紅幣80%由特朗普集團(Trump Organization)的附屬公司持有,如果這些公司突然出售網紅幣,將以投資者的利益為代價,讓總統賺得盆滿缽滿。
美國總統唐納德·特朗普上周發行了自己的網紅幣$TRUMP,這讓他幾乎在一夜之間變成了加密貨幣億萬富翁。但一位金融專家表示,如果特朗普集團的附屬公司CIC Digital和CIC共同控股的Fight Fight Fight有限責任公司決定出售它們所持有的80%的代幣,特朗普的財富將暴漲,但投資者會蒙受損失。
特朗普于1月17日發行了自己的網紅幣,并且在他就職后的幾天內,這款網紅幣的價值從不到10美元飆升至高達74.59美元,市值接近150億美元。盡管隨后其價值減半至約39美元,但根據巴魯克學院(Baruch College)齊克林商學院(Zicklin School of Business)金融學副教授倫納德·考斯托文斯基的說法,如果特朗普集團的附屬公司出售其持有的網紅幣,特朗普的財富實際上可能翻兩番。
特朗普集團是特朗普家族開展經營活動的實體,該集團發布了一項道德協議,禁止特朗普在其總統任期內參與“日常”經營活動。
總統在網紅幣中的實際利益,引發了對利益沖突和特朗普承諾在第二任期內加強加密貨幣合法性的擔憂。但最令人擔憂的是,如果特朗普突然將網紅幣變現,特朗普集團對網紅幣的主要所有權對投資者意味著什么。
考斯托文斯基對《財富》雜志表示:“對投資者而言,這當然是一個巨大的警告信號。除了其他人愿意為其支付的價格以外,所有網紅幣都沒有任何實際價值。它們是純粹的泡沫。”
特朗普集團已經實時看到了這種情況。$TRUMP發行兩天后,特朗普推出了第一夫人的網紅幣$MELANIA。不久之后,特朗普的代幣就暴跌至每股約40美元。
特朗普-萬斯過渡團隊沒有立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
拉地毯騙局的風險
考斯托文斯基表示,盡管代幣價格幾乎立即暴跌,但特朗普集團仍愿意發行其他家庭成員的網紅幣,這表明存在拉地毯騙局的可能性,即該集團愿意通過抬高代幣的價值以出售持有的代幣獲利,而這種情況通常以其他投資者的利益為代價。
考斯托文斯基表示:“已經有人認為,他們希望將這些代幣變現。他們會想要盡快從中獲得盡可能多的現金,而不是慢慢操作,讓投資者的代幣能夠吸收任何新代幣帶來的流動性。”
內部人士和主要利益相關者是這種拉地毯騙局的受益者。上個月,TikTok網紅哈莉·韋爾奇(也被稱為“Hawk Tuah女孩”)發行了一種網紅幣,市值一度達到近5億美元,但一周后暴跌了95%。一小部分內部人士從價格飆升中獲利300萬美元,而散戶投資者則損失慘重。
這些不受監管的代幣的推廣者存在陷入法律泥潭的風險。2022年10月,金·卡戴珊被指控在社交媒體上宣傳加密貨幣但未披露她所獲得的報酬,向證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)支付了126萬美元和解金。一項訴訟指控卡戴珊和其他名人宣傳一款代幣,抬高其價值,構成了“泡沫炒作”騙局,目的是在投資者出售代幣之前抬高價格。
避免尷尬
考斯托文斯基建議,特朗普有充分的理由避免類似的“泡沫炒作”騙局。總統持有網紅幣的主要風險并非來自財務方面,而是在信譽方面。如果特朗普的代幣崩盤,這會產生糟糕的影響。
特朗普網紅幣的表現作為一個量化指標,可以衡量追隨者對總統的信心。特朗普網紅幣的網站表示,購買$TRUMP是一種對總統表達支持的方式,而不是投資機會。如果$TRUMP代幣的價值因大規模拋售而進一步崩潰,這可能給民眾對特朗普任期的信心產生不良影響。
考斯托文斯基表示:“鑒于特朗普對任何與其表現或財富有關的事情都非常敏感,這可能會讓他感到尷尬。”
加密貨幣的合法性
特朗普網紅幣價格的突然拋售也會對加密貨幣圈產生影響。在競選期間,特朗普承諾將美國打造成“世界加密貨幣之都”,并創建一個目前由政府持有的比特幣“戰略儲備”。
特朗普大量持有自己的網紅幣可能會破壞與加密貨幣支持者的關系。如果特朗普出售他所持有的網紅幣,隨后獲得數十億美元的收益,這將提供證據,證明加密貨幣就是個騙局。
商業管理咨詢公司StoneTurn的合伙人凱拉·柯利對CNN表示:“通常情況下,任何網紅幣的發行都會讓那些認真對待加密貨幣的使用、合法性和安全性的人感到不滿。”然而,她表示,特朗普持有網紅幣與他監管加密貨幣的愿望并不矛盾。
相反,考斯托文斯基表示,如果為了表示對特朗普的支持而誕生的網紅幣激增,并引導更多的追隨者進入加密貨幣領域,這對總統來說是個好消息。
他表示:“加密貨幣圈的大多數傳統觀念認為,這并不是好事,但情況也可能會更糟糕。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
? President Donald Trump launched his memecoin $TRUMP days before his inauguration. If affiliates of the Trump Organization, which owns 80% of the coin, suddenly sell their shares, it would pad the president’s pockets at the expense of investors, finance professor Leonard Kostovetsky told Fortune.
President Donald Trump’s launch of his memecoin $TRUMP last week made him a crypto billionaire nearly overnight. But should CIC Digital, an affiliate of the Trump Organization, and CIC co-owned Fight Fight Fight LLC decide to sell their 80% stake in the token, it would skyrocket Trump’s wealth—and pull the rug out from investors, one finance expert said.
Trump launched his own memecoin on Jan. 17, and within days of his inauguration the value of the coin rallied from less than $10 to as high as $74.59, with a market capitalization nearing $15 billion. Though the value has since come down to earth—its share price has halved to around $39—if the Trump Organization’s affiliates were to sell their shares of the coin, Trump’s wealth could effectively quadruple, according to Leonard Kostovetsky, associate professor of finance at Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business.
The Trump Organization, the entity under which the family conducts business, released an ethics agreement preventing Trump from participating in “day-to-day” business activities during his presidency.
The president’s effective stake in the coin has raised concerns about conflicts of interest and the legitimacy of cryptocurrency Trump promised to reinforce during his second term. But chief among the worries is what the Trump Organization’s predominant ownership would mean for investors if Trump were to suddenly cash out on the memecoin.
“In terms of investors, of course there’s a huge red flag,” Kostovetsky told Fortune. “All of these memecoins don’t really have any value beyond just what other people are willing to pay for them. They’re pure bubbles.”
The Trump Organization has already seen this happening in real time. Two days after launching $TRUMP, Trump introduced the first lady’s memecoin $MELANIA. Trump’s token plunged to about $40 a share shortly after.
The Trump-Vance transition team did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
The risk of a rug pull
Kostovetsky said the fact the Trump Organization was willing to introduce memecoins of other family members—despite the near-immediate nosedive of the token’s share prices—indicates the possibility of a rug pull, or a willingness to inflate the value of a token in order to sell shares and profit, often as the expense of other investors.
“There’s already some idea that they’re going to want to monetize this,” Kostovetsky said. “They’re going to want to, as quickly as possible, get as much money out of this as possible, rather than kind of slow play it and allow, for investors, the coins to be able to absorb the liquidity from any new coins coming on.”
Insiders and major stakeholders are the ones who benefit from these rug pulls. Last month, viral TikTok star Hailey Welch, also known as the “Hawk Tuah girl,” launched a memecoin that peaked at nearly $500 million, only to collapse 95% a week later. A small group of insiders pocketed $3 million from the spike, while retail investors got squeezed.
Promoters of these unregulated tokens risk entering muddy legal waters. In October 2022, Kim Kardashian paid the Securities and Exchange Commission $1.26 million to settle charges alleging she promoted the cryptocurrency on social media without disclosing how much she was paid to do so. A lawsuit alleged Kardashian’s and other celebrities’ promotion of the token inflated its value as part of a “pump and dump” scheme to inflate its share price before investors sold it.
Avoiding embarrassment
There’s good reason for Trump to avoid a similar pump-and-dump situation, Kostovestsky suggested. The president’s predominant risk in memecoin ownership is not financial, but rather reputational. If Trump’s token crashes, it’s a bad look.
The performance of Trump’s memecoins are a quantitative measure of followers’ confidence in the president. The Trump memecoin website says scooping up $TRUMP shares is a means of showing support for the president and is not an investment opportunity. If the value of $TRUMP were to further collapse as a result of a massive sell-off, it could reflect poorly on broader confidence in Trump’s term.
“Given how he’s very sensitive to anything that pertains to his performance or his wealth,” Kostovetsky said, “it could potentially be embarrassing for him.”
The legitimacy of crypto
The sudden sell-off of Trump’s memecoin will also have repercussions on the crypto community. On the campaign trail, Trump promised to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and create a “strategic reserve” of Bitcoin currently held by the government.
Trump’s hefty ownership of his own memecoin may sour the relationship with crypto proponents. If Trump were to sell his stake in his memecoin, subsequently gaining billions of dollars, it would provide evidence that crypto is a scam.
“Generally, the introduction of any meme coin ruffles the feathers of those who are serious about the use, legitimacy and security of crypto,” Kyla Curley, partner at business management consultancy StoneTurn, told CNN. However, Trump’s stake in memecoins isn’t mutually exclusive with his desire to regulate crypto, she said.
Conversely, a proliferation of memecoins produced for the purpose of showing support of Trump would be good news for the president if it introduced more of his followers to crypto, Kostovetsky said.
“The majority of conventional wisdom in the crypto community is that it’s not great, but could be worse,” he said.