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股市一片火熱。為什么巴菲特不入場?

Alena Botros
2024-12-07

伯克希爾就是有點無聊,又很成功。

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2015年,沃倫·巴菲特在《財富》一場會議上。圖片來源:Paul Morigi via Getty Images for Fortune/Time Inc

全世界最著名的價值投資者,如今卻抱著巨額現金。根據沃倫·巴菲特麾下伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的季度財報,目前該公司持有的現金和等價物超過3250億美元,其中大部分是美國國債。

每個人都想知道為什么。他不入場是因為覺得市場不穩定、價格過高嗎?他沒找到機會嗎?他在為接班人讓路嗎?

如今股市一片火熱。標普500指數突破 6000 點大關。今年是 2000 年以來股市最好的年份之一。企業估值飆升,利潤也一樣。英偉達(Nvidia)最新公布的業績超出預期,利潤翻了一番,在人工智能支持下收入激增。但巴菲特是價值投資者,一直在尋找價值低估且具有長期投資潛力的公司。被稱為 “奧馬哈先知 ”的巴菲特曾表示,不投資不了解的東西,比如科技公司——當然了蘋果公司除外。話雖如此,巴菲特手中不斷增加的現金有相當一部分是拋售蘋果公司股票攢下的。

CFRA Research的董事凱茜·塞弗特解釋稱,“蘋果在投資組合里比重越來越高”,因此拋售“有其道理”。她說,伯克希爾在科技領域起步較晚,與蘋果的合作表現不錯。另一方面,Keefe,Bruyette&Woods的董事總經理邁耶·希爾茲表示,可能公司認為“蘋果估值還算合理,或者高過了合理估值。”

“幾十年來,伯克希爾就是有點無聊,又很成功,”他表示。

不管怎樣,猜測巴菲特資金的動向都要困難得多。塞弗特說,雖然市場很瘋狂,但巴菲特是價值投資者,他“在眾人貪婪時恐懼,在眾人恐懼時貪婪……他不會被大勢左右,當然不會。”

按照希爾茲的說法,有些人眼里的火爆股市,“巴菲特會說價格太高。”他說,伯克希爾哈撒韋的投資經理托德·庫姆斯和泰德·韋施勒似乎開始考慮科技板塊,但可能認為很多科技公司“按內部估值指標而言價格過高,因此仍有可能避開這一領域。”

伯克希爾買披薩和游泳池

不過,最近伯克希爾還是有所斬獲:多米諾披薩(Domino’s Pizza)是廣受歡迎的披薩連鎖店,Pool Corporation則是一家泳池用品公司。畢竟,巴菲特偏愛垃圾食品股(也喜歡垃圾食品,但誰不喜歡呢)。據雅虎財經(Yahoo Finance)報道,截至三季度末,伯克希爾持有多米諾披薩的市值約為 5.49 億美元,持有Pool 股票市值約為 1.52 億美元。

總體而言,股票市場對特朗普勝選以及下一任期態度積極,但伯克希爾似乎不以為然。塞弗特解釋說,可能是因為公司認為特朗普的政策是通脹政策,大選后的漲勢不可持續。“他們對市場估值的熱情顯然比較克制,”她表示。另一方面,上一季度伯克希爾的整體業績相當疲軟,因此塞弗特認為,伯克希爾正謹慎對待自身的財務業績和市場估值——或許還有別的原因。

她說:“我認為,人們不會預期巴菲特帶大批現金入市,投資者期待伯克希爾收購。” 特朗普 2.0 可能意味著監管環境更寬松,尤其是在并購領域。不過塞弗特表示,隨著私募股權崛起,對目標公司的競爭也會更加激烈。

格雷格·阿貝爾已被任命為伯克希爾哈撒韋的接班人。塞弗特認為囤積現金 “不一定是為接班做準備”,她說。在她看來,這 “說明公司對當前市場估值的可持續性,特朗普貿易的可持續性存在懷疑,以及沒找到有吸引力的收購目標”。

除了 1967 年一次明顯例外,伯克希爾從不支付股息,因此現金會隨著時間推移不斷積累。伯克希爾消耗現金的方法之一是回購股票,目前還沒啟用。這又回到了繼任規劃的問題上。

"不幸的現實是,在某個時間點高管層會出現變動,我懷疑他們想留著大量現金回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票,”希爾茲說。

他繼續說:"如果發生這種情況,我們預計一覺醒來巴菲特不在了,股票會被拋售。我認為,很多人持有伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股票都是因為巴菲特。他們希望有充足的現金,這樣就可以利用拋售為股東爭取利益。”

塞弗特解釋說,不管怎樣巴菲特都不會一頭扎進最新的投資熱潮,之前這一策略對伯克希爾也一直有效。此外,盡管隨著現金不斷累積 “富得有點尷尬”,但回報率也在上升。畢竟錢放在那也能賺錢。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

全世界最著名的價值投資者,如今卻抱著巨額現金。根據沃倫·巴菲特麾下伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的季度財報,目前該公司持有的現金和等價物超過3250億美元,其中大部分是美國國債。

每個人都想知道為什么。他不入場是因為覺得市場不穩定、價格過高嗎?他沒找到機會嗎?他在為接班人讓路嗎?

如今股市一片火熱。標普500指數突破 6000 點大關。今年是 2000 年以來股市最好的年份之一。企業估值飆升,利潤也一樣。英偉達(Nvidia)最新公布的業績超出預期,利潤翻了一番,在人工智能支持下收入激增。但巴菲特是價值投資者,一直在尋找價值低估且具有長期投資潛力的公司。被稱為 “奧馬哈先知 ”的巴菲特曾表示,不投資不了解的東西,比如科技公司——當然了蘋果公司除外。話雖如此,巴菲特手中不斷增加的現金有相當一部分是拋售蘋果公司股票攢下的。

CFRA Research的董事凱茜·塞弗特解釋稱,“蘋果在投資組合里比重越來越高”,因此拋售“有其道理”。她說,伯克希爾在科技領域起步較晚,與蘋果的合作表現不錯。另一方面,Keefe,Bruyette&Woods的董事總經理邁耶·希爾茲表示,可能公司認為“蘋果估值還算合理,或者高過了合理估值。”

“幾十年來,伯克希爾就是有點無聊,又很成功,”他表示。

不管怎樣,猜測巴菲特資金的動向都要困難得多。塞弗特說,雖然市場很瘋狂,但巴菲特是價值投資者,他“在眾人貪婪時恐懼,在眾人恐懼時貪婪……他不會被大勢左右,當然不會。”

按照希爾茲的說法,有些人眼里的火爆股市,“巴菲特會說價格太高。”他說,伯克希爾哈撒韋的投資經理托德·庫姆斯和泰德·韋施勒似乎開始考慮科技板塊,但可能認為很多科技公司“按內部估值指標而言價格過高,因此仍有可能避開這一領域。”

伯克希爾買披薩和游泳池

不過,最近伯克希爾還是有所斬獲:多米諾披薩(Domino’s Pizza)是廣受歡迎的披薩連鎖店,Pool Corporation則是一家泳池用品公司。畢竟,巴菲特偏愛垃圾食品股(也喜歡垃圾食品,但誰不喜歡呢)。據雅虎財經(Yahoo Finance)報道,截至三季度末,伯克希爾持有多米諾披薩的市值約為 5.49 億美元,持有Pool 股票市值約為 1.52 億美元。

總體而言,股票市場對特朗普勝選以及下一任期態度積極,但伯克希爾似乎不以為然。塞弗特解釋說,可能是因為公司認為特朗普的政策是通脹政策,大選后的漲勢不可持續。“他們對市場估值的熱情顯然比較克制,”她表示。另一方面,上一季度伯克希爾的整體業績相當疲軟,因此塞弗特認為,伯克希爾正謹慎對待自身的財務業績和市場估值——或許還有別的原因。

她說:“我認為,人們不會預期巴菲特帶大批現金入市,投資者期待伯克希爾收購。” 特朗普 2.0 可能意味著監管環境更寬松,尤其是在并購領域。不過塞弗特表示,隨著私募股權崛起,對目標公司的競爭也會更加激烈。

格雷格·阿貝爾已被任命為伯克希爾哈撒韋的接班人。塞弗特認為囤積現金 “不一定是為接班做準備”,她說。在她看來,這 “說明公司對當前市場估值的可持續性,特朗普貿易的可持續性存在懷疑,以及沒找到有吸引力的收購目標”。

除了 1967 年一次明顯例外,伯克希爾從不支付股息,因此現金會隨著時間推移不斷積累。伯克希爾消耗現金的方法之一是回購股票,目前還沒啟用。這又回到了繼任規劃的問題上。

"不幸的現實是,在某個時間點高管層會出現變動,我懷疑他們想留著大量現金回購伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票,”希爾茲說。

他繼續說:"如果發生這種情況,我們預計一覺醒來巴菲特不在了,股票會被拋售。我認為,很多人持有伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股票都是因為巴菲特。他們希望有充足的現金,這樣就可以利用拋售為股東爭取利益。”

塞弗特解釋說,不管怎樣巴菲特都不會一頭扎進最新的投資熱潮,之前這一策略對伯克希爾也一直有效。此外,盡管隨著現金不斷累積 “富得有點尷尬”,但回報率也在上升。畢竟錢放在那也能賺錢。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

The world’s most famous value investor is sitting on an enormous cash pile. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more than $325 billion in cash and equivalents, according to the firm’s quarterly financial statements, most of it in U.S. Treasury bills.

Everyone wants to know why. Is he cashing out because he sees an unstable market priced too high? Are there no opportunities presenting themselves to him? Is he making way for a successor?

The stock market is hot, booming, on a winning steak. The S&P 500 surpassed the 6,000 mark. This year has been one of the best-performing years since 2000. Corporate valuations are soaring, and profits are too. This week, Nvidia crushed expectations, doubling its profits with its revenues surging on the back of artificial intelligence. But Buffett has always looked for undervalued companies with potential to invest in for the long term: a value investor. The Oracle of Omaha, as he is called, once said he doesn’t invest in things he doesn’t understand, such as technology companies—apart from Apple, of course. That said, part of that mounting cash reserve is from aggressively selling shares of Apple.

Cathy Seifert, a director at CFRA Research, explained that “Apple was becoming an outsize piece of the portfolio,” so the offloading “made sense.” Berkshire was late to the tech game but had a decent run with Apple, she said. On the other hand, Meyer Shields, a managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said the firm might have thought “it was fairly valued, or maybe more than fairly valued.”

“Berkshire has succeeded over the decades by being boring in that way,” he said.

Either way, it’s a lot more difficult to speculate about the cash. While it’s a crazy market, Seifert said, Buffett is a value investor who “tends to zig when everybody else zags… He’s not going to be swayed by momentum, certainly not.”

According to Shields, what some describe as a hot stock market, “Warren Buffett would describe as overpriced.” Berkshire investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler seem to have opened the company to technology exposure, he said, but it’s still possible they see a lot of it as “overpriced relative to whatever internal valuation metrics that they use, and because of that, they’re not averse to not investing in that market.”

Berkshire buys pizza and pools

However, Berkshire did recently buy some stocks: Domino’s Pizza, a favorite pizza franchise, and Pool Corporation, a swimming pool supplies company. After all, Buffett favors junk-food stocks (and really, just junk food, but who doesn’t). At the end of the third quarter, Berkshire’s stake in Domino’s was valued at around $549 million while the Pool stake was valued at about $152 million, according to Yahoo Finance.

Overall, the stock market has reacted positively to Donald Trump’s win and the prospect of another Trump presidency, but Berkshire doesn’t appear to be getting in on the action. It could be because those at the firm don’t see the post-election rally being sustainable, Seifert explained, calling Trump’s policies inflationary. “Their enthusiasm for market valuations is certainly tempered,” she said. Not to mention, Berkshire’s overall financial results in the last quarter were pretty weak in her mind, so Seifert believes it’s looking cautiously at its own financial results and market valuations—and maybe one other thing.

“I don’t think anyone is expecting that cash pile to be deployed into the equity markets, per se,” she said. “I think investors are looking for Berkshire to make an acquisition.” Trump 2.0 could mean an easier regulatory environment, particularly as it relates to mergers and acquisitions. Even so, with the rise of private equity, there’s more competition for target companies, Seifert said.

Greg Abel has been named to succeed Buffett in helming Berkshire Hathaway when the time comes. Still, Seifert doesn’t think cash hoarding is “necessarily with an eye toward succession,” she said. To her, it instead “reflects a fundamental skepticism about the sustainability of current market valuations, the sustainability of the Trump trade, combined with the fact that they’re not seeing a lot of acquisition targets that are appealing to them.”

Still, Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend, except for one notable exception in 1967, so cash accumulates over time. One of its methods of using the cash, buying back its stock, isn’t being used. That brings us right back to succession planning.

“The unfortunate actuarial reality is, at some point in time, you have a change in senior management, and I suspect that they want to have a lot of cash to buy back Berkshire Hathaway stock,” Shields said.

He continued: “When that happens, our expectation is that we wake up tomorrow, Warren Buffett is not there, the stock sells off. There are a lot of people that own Berkshire Hathaway, I think, because of Warren Buffett. They want to have plenty of cash available so that they can utilize any sell off to the benefit of the shareholders.”

Either way, Buffett doesn’t dive headfirst into the latest investment craze, Seifert explained, and in the past, that has worked out for Berkshire. Plus, despite the “sort of an embarrassment of riches there,” as the cash pile expands, the return on it is rising too. It’s making money just sitting there.

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