美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾周四表示,由于通脹顯示出持續(xù)存在的跡象,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員希望觀察通脹未來(lái)的走向,因此在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)緩慢而謹(jǐn)慎地降低關(guān)鍵利率。
在達(dá)拉斯發(fā)表的一次預(yù)先準(zhǔn)備的講話(huà)中,鮑威爾表示,通脹正在逐漸接近“但尚未達(dá)到”美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。
同時(shí),他表示,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策者有時(shí)間監(jiān)測(cè)通脹的軌跡。
鮑威爾表示:“經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有發(fā)出任何需要我們急于降息的信號(hào)。我們目前看到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁,這讓我們能夠謹(jǐn)慎地做出決策。”
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),繼上周降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)、9月降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在12月宣布再次降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)之后的行動(dòng)尚不明朗。9月份,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員集體表示,他們預(yù)計(jì)2025年將四次下調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率。然而,根據(jù)CME FedWatch追蹤的期貨定價(jià)數(shù)據(jù),華爾街交易員現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)只會(huì)有兩次降息。
唐納德·特朗普勝選的消息推高了美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率。這個(gè)跡象表明,投資者預(yù)計(jì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能加快,但如果特朗普兌現(xiàn)他的承諾,廣泛征收關(guān)稅,并大規(guī)模驅(qū)逐移民,那么預(yù)算赤字可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大,通脹水平可能進(jìn)一步攀升。
鮑威爾在周四的講話(huà)中表示,未來(lái)幾個(gè)月通脹可能會(huì)維持在略高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目標(biāo)的水平。但他重申,“盡管有時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)”,通脹最終應(yīng)該會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾周四表示,由于通脹顯示出持續(xù)存在的跡象,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員希望觀察通脹未來(lái)的走向,因此在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)緩慢而謹(jǐn)慎地降低關(guān)鍵利率。
在達(dá)拉斯發(fā)表的一次預(yù)先準(zhǔn)備的講話(huà)中,鮑威爾表示,通脹正在逐漸接近“但尚未達(dá)到”美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。
同時(shí),他表示,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策者有時(shí)間監(jiān)測(cè)通脹的軌跡。
鮑威爾表示:“經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有發(fā)出任何需要我們急于降息的信號(hào)。我們目前看到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁,這讓我們能夠謹(jǐn)慎地做出決策。”
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),繼上周降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)、9月降息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在12月宣布再次降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。
但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)之后的行動(dòng)尚不明朗。9月份,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員集體表示,他們預(yù)計(jì)2025年將四次下調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率。然而,根據(jù)CME FedWatch追蹤的期貨定價(jià)數(shù)據(jù),華爾街交易員現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)只會(huì)有兩次降息。
唐納德·特朗普勝選的消息推高了美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率。這個(gè)跡象表明,投資者預(yù)計(jì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可能加快,但如果特朗普兌現(xiàn)他的承諾,廣泛征收關(guān)稅,并大規(guī)模驅(qū)逐移民,那么預(yù)算赤字可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大,通脹水平可能進(jìn)一步攀升。
鮑威爾在周四的講話(huà)中表示,未來(lái)幾個(gè)月通脹可能會(huì)維持在略高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目標(biāo)的水平。但他重申,“盡管有時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)”,通脹最終應(yīng)該會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Federal Reserve will likely cut its key interest rate slowly and deliberately in the coming months, in part because inflation has shown signs of persistence and the Fed’s officials want to see where it heads next.
Powell, in prepared remarks for a speech in Dallas, said that inflation is edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target, “but it is not there yet.”
At the same time, he said, the economy is strong, and the Fed’s policymakers can take time to monitor the path of inflation.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” the Fed chair said. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
Economists expect the Fed to announce another quarter-point rate cut in December, after a quarter-point reduction last week and half-point cut in September.
But the Fed’s steps after that are much less clear. In September, the central bank’s officials collectively signaled that they envisioned cutting their key rate four times in 2025. Wall Street traders, though, now expect just two Fed rate reductions, according to futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch.
Donald Trump’s presidential election victory has sent yields on Treasury securities higher. It is a sign that investors expect faster growth next year as well as potentially larger budget deficits and even higher inflation should Trump impose widespread tariffs and mass deportations of migrants as he has promised.
In his remarks Thursday, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target in the coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline further, “albeit on a sometimes bumpy path.”