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OpenAI最新估值超千億美元

KALI HAYS
2024-09-03

OpenAI正在進行談判,計劃在新一輪融資中再融資數十億美元。

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OpenAI CEO兼聯合創始人山姆·阿爾特曼。圖片來源:JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

從復雜的非營利-營利結構,到CEO被短暫驅逐和回歸,OpenAI的發展過程不同尋常。

該初創公司最近的一輪融資就是典型的例子之一。此輪融資對該公司的估值據稱達到驚人的1,030億美元。據《華爾街日報》報道,OpenAI正在進行談判,計劃在新一輪融資中再融資數十億美元。除了傳統投資者(據報道,Thrive Capital出資10億美元,成為領投方)外,蘋果(Apple)和英偉達(Nvidia)等大型科技公司顯然也將參與融資。

當然,OpenAI 已經獲得了一家非常有影響力的大型科技公司的投資:不到兩年前,微軟(Microsoft)在ChatGPT的開發者投資130億美元。最近有報道稱,微軟正在考慮參與本輪融資(但尚不確定微軟將以現金還是云計算額度的形式進行投資)。

融資所產生的一系列問題,足以讓人們感到困惑。是否有證據表明OpenAI的業務能夠證明這些投資的合理性?這些科技公司為什么都在爭相投資該公司?由于OpenAI采用利潤上限結構,這些公司投資OpenAI能否得到任何回報?科技行業是否正在面臨反壟斷機構的嚴格審查,行業的高度集中是否會引起反壟斷機構的關注?

隨著OpenAI的巨額融資即將結束,有些問題的答案將開始引起關注。與此同時,如果你想了解正在發生的情況,可以注意以下幾個要點。

OpenAI為什么需要更多投資?

據媒體報道,OpenAI的營收僅僅超過30億美元,其最新估值達到營收的30多倍。據知情人士對《財富》雜志表示,該公司的大多數營收來自ChatGPT的企業銷售額,來自消費者訂閱的收入微乎其微,而且OpenAI距離實現盈利仍相去甚遠。

除了向大企業客戶銷售以外,OpenAI內部正在探索將其工具貨幣化的其他途徑。知情人士稱,該公司正在積極研究的一種選擇是,在ChatGPT提供的結果中包含廣告。知情人士稱,另外一種選擇是,創建滿足特定需求的聊天機器人版本,例如出行等,并出售給消費者或大客戶。

OpenAI仍在尋求更多投資,這表明它最近幾年募集的數十億美元資金,正在快速耗盡。考慮到訓練OpenAI備受期待的GPT-5等高級人工智能模型的成本越來越高,驅動人工智能服務的成本也在不斷增多,因此OpenAI需要不斷尋找資金。山姆·阿爾特曼表示,他需要7萬億美元來發展其芯片制造業務,用于支持他的人工智能夢想。

投資者能獲得什么回報?

如果OpenAI在未來某個時間點實現盈利或者上市,OpenAI的投資者將獲得豐厚的回報。基于該公司的高估值,這個估值數字更有可能是基于預期和希望,而不是基于當前損益表中的具體數據。

OpenAI未來成功具體能給投資者帶來哪些匯報,仍是個未知數。與微軟的初始投資一樣,蘋果或英偉達等新投資者將在OpenAI經營的一家獨立實體的未來利潤中獲得分成。OpenAI通過一種名為利潤參與單位的股權形式進行交易,公司包含多個實體:一家非營利實體控制一家營利實體,該營利實體則控制一家控股公司,控股公司控制另外一家營利實體,最后這家就是微軟投資的實體。(暈頭轉向了嗎?你并不孤單。)

根據微軟2023年與OpenAI達成的協議條款,微軟比其他投資者有優先權。根據《財富》雜志當時的報道,OpenAI 75%的利潤將直接交給微軟,直到微軟的投資金額(高達130億美元)全部收回為止。

這意味著,對于目前正在投資OpenAI的一些科技公司而言,短期內它們的動機是出于戰略而非財務上的考慮——從根本上來說,它們希望緊跟這家掀起生成式人工智能狂熱的公司,并確保能夠使用該公司的技術。蘋果公司已經在其即將推出的Apple Intelligence產品中使用了ChatGPT技術作為基礎,據報道,蘋果并沒有為此向OpenAI付費。

OpenAI為什么會設定利潤上限?

2019年,在OpenAI發布ChatGPT之前,該公司表示為了支付其正在從事的AI工作的高額成本,將創建一家營利性部門。然而,無論OpenAI未來取得多大成功,初期投資者的回報將不超過其初始投資額的100倍(換言之,投資100萬美元的回報不超過1億美元)。OpenAI當時表示,預計“未來融資時的回報率將會更低”,這意味著后期投資者的回報會受到更大限制。超出上限的回報將進入OpenAI的非營利部門。

利潤上限在OpenAI實現通用人工智能(AGI)之前適用。OpenAI將通用人工智能寬泛地定義為“整體比人類更聰明的人工智能系統”。如果OpenAI達到這個假設的里程碑,投資者在通用人工智能方面可能得不到任何回報。任何號稱具備通用人工智能技術的系統,都不在OpenAI當前的許可結構當中,因此也不屬于任何現有投資者協議的條款范圍。該公司在2019年寫道:“我們的結構使我們可以靈活尋找實現長期回報的途徑,但我們希望在實現安全的通用人工智能之后,再去考慮如何實現回報。”為了讓投資者滿意,該公司可能已經開始調整“利潤上限”結構。當前的融資談判中可能就包含了“后通用人工智能”許可條款。

微軟為什么允許蘋果等競爭對手插足它與OpenAI的特殊關系?

OpenAI面臨日益嚴格的審查,而且它與最大投資者微軟的關系同樣面臨審查。微軟的領導者一直希望避免其與OpenAI的交易受到監管審查,但去年晚些時候,阿爾特曼被驅逐的鬧劇,讓微軟領導者的努力付之東流。微軟一直是反壟斷監管部門關注的對象,因此其領導者迫切希望避免卷入監管調查。現在,據媒體報道,美國和英國的監管機構正在就兩家公司的關系展開調查。在那之后,微軟CEO薩蒂亞·納德拉一直強調公司在人工智能領域的獨立工作和研究,甚至將OpenAI列為直接競爭對手。

如果微軟參與有其他全球最大科技公司參與的OpenAI融資,將有助于微軟進一步展示其在該公司事務上的“放手”態度。

而對于OpenAI而言,邀請其他大型科技公司參與投資,可以進一步提高必要的多樣化。微軟最近開始發展內部的人工智能能力,包括聘請Inflection AI的創始人,開發內部大語言模型等,都表明OpenAI必須了解過度依賴微軟的風險。

當然,這些伎倆能否逃過監管機構的眼睛,仍是個巨大的未知數。今年7月,蘋果和微軟均放棄了以“觀察者”的身份加入OpenAI董事會的計劃,這表明面對監管機構的嚴格審查,兩家公司都采取了更加謹慎的做法。盡管如此,距離美國總統大選只有幾個月時間,政府換屆可能改變政府對大型科技公司和人工智能的立場。(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

從復雜的非營利-營利結構,到CEO被短暫驅逐和回歸,OpenAI的發展過程不同尋常。

該初創公司最近的一輪融資就是典型的例子之一。此輪融資對該公司的估值據稱達到驚人的1,030億美元。據《華爾街日報》報道,OpenAI正在進行談判,計劃在新一輪融資中再融資數十億美元。除了傳統投資者(據報道,Thrive Capital出資10億美元,成為領投方)外,蘋果(Apple)和英偉達(Nvidia)等大型科技公司顯然也將參與融資。

當然,OpenAI 已經獲得了一家非常有影響力的大型科技公司的投資:不到兩年前,微軟(Microsoft)在ChatGPT的開發者投資130億美元。最近有報道稱,微軟正在考慮參與本輪融資(但尚不確定微軟將以現金還是云計算額度的形式進行投資)。

融資所產生的一系列問題,足以讓人們感到困惑。是否有證據表明OpenAI的業務能夠證明這些投資的合理性?這些科技公司為什么都在爭相投資該公司?由于OpenAI采用利潤上限結構,這些公司投資OpenAI能否得到任何回報?科技行業是否正在面臨反壟斷機構的嚴格審查,行業的高度集中是否會引起反壟斷機構的關注?

隨著OpenAI的巨額融資即將結束,有些問題的答案將開始引起關注。與此同時,如果你想了解正在發生的情況,可以注意以下幾個要點。

OpenAI為什么需要更多投資?

據媒體報道,OpenAI的營收僅僅超過30億美元,其最新估值達到營收的30多倍。據知情人士對《財富》雜志表示,該公司的大多數營收來自ChatGPT的企業銷售額,來自消費者訂閱的收入微乎其微,而且OpenAI距離實現盈利仍相去甚遠。

除了向大企業客戶銷售以外,OpenAI內部正在探索將其工具貨幣化的其他途徑。知情人士稱,該公司正在積極研究的一種選擇是,在ChatGPT提供的結果中包含廣告。知情人士稱,另外一種選擇是,創建滿足特定需求的聊天機器人版本,例如出行等,并出售給消費者或大客戶。

OpenAI仍在尋求更多投資,這表明它最近幾年募集的數十億美元資金,正在快速耗盡。考慮到訓練OpenAI備受期待的GPT-5等高級人工智能模型的成本越來越高,驅動人工智能服務的成本也在不斷增多,因此OpenAI需要不斷尋找資金。山姆·阿爾特曼表示,他需要7萬億美元來發展其芯片制造業務,用于支持他的人工智能夢想。

投資者能獲得什么回報?

如果OpenAI在未來某個時間點實現盈利或者上市,OpenAI的投資者將獲得豐厚的回報。基于該公司的高估值,這個估值數字更有可能是基于預期和希望,而不是基于當前損益表中的具體數據。

OpenAI未來成功具體能給投資者帶來哪些匯報,仍是個未知數。與微軟的初始投資一樣,蘋果或英偉達等新投資者將在OpenAI經營的一家獨立實體的未來利潤中獲得分成。OpenAI通過一種名為利潤參與單位的股權形式進行交易,公司包含多個實體:一家非營利實體控制一家營利實體,該營利實體則控制一家控股公司,控股公司控制另外一家營利實體,最后這家就是微軟投資的實體。(暈頭轉向了嗎?你并不孤單。)

根據微軟2023年與OpenAI達成的協議條款,微軟比其他投資者有優先權。根據《財富》雜志當時的報道,OpenAI 75%的利潤將直接交給微軟,直到微軟的投資金額(高達130億美元)全部收回為止。

這意味著,對于目前正在投資OpenAI的一些科技公司而言,短期內它們的動機是出于戰略而非財務上的考慮——從根本上來說,它們希望緊跟這家掀起生成式人工智能狂熱的公司,并確保能夠使用該公司的技術。蘋果公司已經在其即將推出的Apple Intelligence產品中使用了ChatGPT技術作為基礎,據報道,蘋果并沒有為此向OpenAI付費。

OpenAI為什么會設定利潤上限?

2019年,在OpenAI發布ChatGPT之前,該公司表示為了支付其正在從事的AI工作的高額成本,將創建一家營利性部門。然而,無論OpenAI未來取得多大成功,初期投資者的回報將不超過其初始投資額的100倍(換言之,投資100萬美元的回報不超過1億美元)。OpenAI當時表示,預計“未來融資時的回報率將會更低”,這意味著后期投資者的回報會受到更大限制。超出上限的回報將進入OpenAI的非營利部門。

利潤上限在OpenAI實現通用人工智能(AGI)之前適用。OpenAI將通用人工智能寬泛地定義為“整體比人類更聰明的人工智能系統”。如果OpenAI達到這個假設的里程碑,投資者在通用人工智能方面可能得不到任何回報。任何號稱具備通用人工智能技術的系統,都不在OpenAI當前的許可結構當中,因此也不屬于任何現有投資者協議的條款范圍。該公司在2019年寫道:“我們的結構使我們可以靈活尋找實現長期回報的途徑,但我們希望在實現安全的通用人工智能之后,再去考慮如何實現回報。”為了讓投資者滿意,該公司可能已經開始調整“利潤上限”結構。當前的融資談判中可能就包含了“后通用人工智能”許可條款。

微軟為什么允許蘋果等競爭對手插足它與OpenAI的特殊關系?

OpenAI面臨日益嚴格的審查,而且它與最大投資者微軟的關系同樣面臨審查。微軟的領導者一直希望避免其與OpenAI的交易受到監管審查,但去年晚些時候,阿爾特曼被驅逐的鬧劇,讓微軟領導者的努力付之東流。微軟一直是反壟斷監管部門關注的對象,因此其領導者迫切希望避免卷入監管調查。現在,據媒體報道,美國和英國的監管機構正在就兩家公司的關系展開調查。在那之后,微軟CEO薩蒂亞·納德拉一直強調公司在人工智能領域的獨立工作和研究,甚至將OpenAI列為直接競爭對手。

如果微軟參與有其他全球最大科技公司參與的OpenAI融資,將有助于微軟進一步展示其在該公司事務上的“放手”態度。

而對于OpenAI而言,邀請其他大型科技公司參與投資,可以進一步提高必要的多樣化。微軟最近開始發展內部的人工智能能力,包括聘請Inflection AI的創始人,開發內部大語言模型等,都表明OpenAI必須了解過度依賴微軟的風險。

當然,這些伎倆能否逃過監管機構的眼睛,仍是個巨大的未知數。今年7月,蘋果和微軟均放棄了以“觀察者”的身份加入OpenAI董事會的計劃,這表明面對監管機構的嚴格審查,兩家公司都采取了更加謹慎的做法。盡管如此,距離美國總統大選只有幾個月時間,政府換屆可能改變政府對大型科技公司和人工智能的立場。(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

From its convoluted non-profit-for-profit structure to the brief ouster and return of its CEO, there is not much about OpenAI that’s typical.

The startup’s latest funding round, which would reportedly value OpenAI at a whopping $103 billion, is a case in point. According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is in talks to raise several billion dollars in a new funding round. In addition to traditional VC investors—with Thrive Capital reportedly contributing $1 billion to lead the round—a who’s who of Big Tech powers such as Apple and Nvidia may apparently also join the funding party.

Of course, OpenAI already has a very prominent Big Tech heavyweight in its corner: Microsoft, which invested $13 billion in the ChatGPT maker less than two years ago. According to the recent reports, Microsoft is also considering investing in the current round (though it’s not clear if the investment would be in cash or cloud computing credits).

The string of questions all of this raises is enough to tie up anyone’s tongue. Is there any evidence that OpenAI’s business can justify all this investment? Why are all these tech companies piling in? Can they get any return from OpenAI given its profit-capped structure? And isn’t the tech industry under intense scrutiny from antitrust regulators who might look askance at such concentration?

As the OpenAI funding mega deal moves closer to completion, some of the answers to the questions will likely start to come into focus. In the meantime, here are some key points to consider if you’re trying to get a grasp of what’s happening.

Why does OpenAI need more money?

OpenAI’s revenue is reportedly just over $3 billion, putting the potential new valuation at more than 30 times the money it brings in. Most of its revenue comes from enterprise sales of ChatGPT, with very little coming from individual consumer subscriptions to the tool, and OpenAI is far from profitable, a person familiar with the company told Fortune.

Work inside OpenAI is ongoing to game out ways to monetize its tools beyond sales to large enterprise customers. Advertising within results given by ChatGPT is one option being actively worked on, according to the person familiar with the matter. Another is creating versions of the chatbot that are packaged for specific needs, like travel, and sold that way to consumers or large customers, the person added.

Still, the fact that OpenAI is seeking out new investment suggests that it’s rapidly burning through the billions of dollars it’s raised in recent years. And given the ever-escalating costs of training advanced AI models like OpenAI’s widely anticipated GPT 5, as well as the costs of powering AI services, the need for cash is ever present. Sam Altman has said he needs $7 trillion for a separate chip manufacturing venture to power his AI dreams.

So what’s in it for investors?

Should OpenAI get to a point of profitability at some point, or go public, there is a world in which investors would be paid back well for their backing of OpenAI. Given the amount of the valuation, it’s likely the number is based more on expectations, hope, than anything concrete in today’s income statement.

What investors definitely get in return for any future success of OpenAI is opaque. As with Microsoft’s initial investment, new investors like Apple or Nvidia likely get a stake in future profits held by a separate entity operated by OpenAI. OpenAI trades in profit participation units, a form of equity, and the company is many entities in one: a nonprofit arm is in control of a for-profit arm, which itself has control of a holding company, which controls another for-profit entity, and that entity is what Microsoft is technically invested in. (Confused yet? You’re not alone).

Under the terms of Microsoft’s 2023 deal with OpenAI, Microsoft gets first dibs over other investors. As Fortune reported at the time 75% of OpenAI’s profits will flow directly to Microsoft until the sum that Microsoft invested (a not trivial $13 billion) is reached.

All of this is to say, that for some the tech companies reportedly investing, the near-term motivation is probably less financial than it is strategic—basically a way to stay close to the company that started the generative AI craze and to ensure access to its technology. Apple is already using ChatGPT as a basis for some of its upcoming offerings in Apple Intelligence—something Apple is reportedly not paying OpenAI for.

But wait, doesn’t OpenAI have a cap on profits?

In 2019, before OpenAI had even released ChatGPT, the company said it was creating a for-profit segment of the company in order to sustain the costly AI work it was doing. However, the initial round of investors would have returns limited to 100x their initial investment, no matter how wildly successful OpenAI might become (an investment of $1 million dollars, in other words, could not see a return of more than $100 million). OpenAI said at the time that it expected “this multiple to be lower for future rounds,” meaning later investors would have further limits put on their possible returns. Returns outside of the cap are set to go to the non-profit arm of OpenAI.

That is, unless and until OpenAI achieves artificial general intelligence, or AGI, which the company loosely defines as “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” Should OpenAI hit this hypothetical milestone, it’s possible that investors could be left with no return on their investment when it comes to AGI. Any system that comes of a purported AGI technology is outside OpenAI’s current licensing structure, and therefore outside the terms of any current investor deals. “Our structure gives us flexibility for how to create a return in the long term, but we hope to figure that out only once we’ve created safe AGI,” the company wrote in 2019. Changes to the “capped profit” structure may already be on the way in an effort to keep investors happy. And it’s possible that the current funding negotiations could include “post-AGI” licensing terms.

Why would Microsoft let rivals like Apple barge into its special relationship with OpenAI?

As scrutiny of OpenAI has increased, so has its relationship with Microsoft as its biggest backer. The messy ouster of Altman late last year effectively undid work by Microsoft leaders to keep their dealings with OpenAI outside regulatory scrutiny. Microsoft has been the target of antitrust regulators in the past, and leaders were keen to avoid more entanglements. Now, regulators in the U.S. and UK are reportedly investigating the two companies’ ties. Since then, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been sure to talk up his company’s independent AI work and research, even listing OpenAI as a direct competitor.

Participating in a funding round for OpenAI that includes other of the world’s biggest tech companies would further Microsoft’s aim to show itself as more hands-off when it comes to the company.

For OpenAI meanwhile, bringing on other Big Tech investors could offer some much needed diversification. Microsoft’s recent moves to build up its own AI capabilities, including hiring the founders of Inflection AI and building its own in-house LLMs, is all the evidence OpenAI needs to understand the risk of being too reliant on Microsoft.

Whether any of these machinations would pass muster with regulators of course is a big unknown. In July, Apple and Microsoft both gave up plans to take “observer” seats on OpenAI’s board, underscoring the cautious approach the companies are taking while they’re under the regulatory microscope. That said, U.S. presidential elections are only months away, and a change in administration could potentially change the government’s view of Big Tech and AI.

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