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“末日博士”看好美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

Jason Ma
2024-08-13

魯比尼一反常態(tài)地表達(dá)了樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。

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2014年,魯里埃爾·魯比尼出席“蘭博茨星期一之夜”活動(dòng)。Gisela Schober—Getty Images

一直以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家魯里埃爾·魯比尼因?yàn)楸^的預(yù)言而被稱(chēng)為“末日博士”,但在華爾街最近陷入恐慌時(shí),他卻一反常態(tài)地表達(dá)了樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。

上周三,他在接受彭博電視臺(tái)采訪時(shí),對(duì)擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的投資者嗤之以鼻,并開(kāi)玩笑說(shuō)股市和債券市場(chǎng)過(guò)去已經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)了十次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,實(shí)際上只發(fā)生過(guò)三次。

他還表示,去年,市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重誤判了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能進(jìn)行降息的次數(shù),因?yàn)榻灰渍哒J(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)更激進(jìn)地降息。

魯比尼表示:“市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的動(dòng)作經(jīng)常判斷錯(cuò)誤。確實(shí)有一些重要的證據(jù)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)有所放緩,但我并不認(rèn)為有數(shù)據(jù)表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)短期內(nèi)會(huì)硬著陸。事實(shí)上,反而有一些預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁的因素。”

等等,發(fā)生了什么?

魯比尼因?yàn)閷?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫的警告而聲名鵲起。他的警告最初遭到人們的嘲諷,但后來(lái)發(fā)生的全球金融危機(jī)證明了他是正確的。

在那之后,他經(jīng)常就其他多次危機(jī)發(fā)出預(yù)警,在2022年,他警告美國(guó)會(huì)發(fā)生滯漲性債務(wù)危機(jī)。2023年,他繼續(xù)發(fā)出警告,稱(chēng)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)危險(xiǎn)的“百慕大三角”和“最嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)危機(jī)”,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將發(fā)生“嚴(yán)重衰退”。

去年,經(jīng)過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)行四十年來(lái)最激進(jìn)的連續(xù)加息之后,華爾街的普遍共識(shí)是,美國(guó)將陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

但到去年9月,由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),并沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重下滑,因此他的立場(chǎng)有所軟化,稱(chēng)美國(guó)可能發(fā)生短暫或程度較輕的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的美國(guó)制造業(yè)和就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)出急劇惡化的跡象,引發(fā)全球股市暴跌,也提供了證據(jù)證明華爾街少數(shù)看空市場(chǎng)的投資者可能是正確的。

后續(xù)的每周失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期,緩解了市場(chǎng)上的緊張情緒,并幫助股市收復(fù)了大部分失地。

與此同時(shí),華爾街的其他人也強(qiáng)調(diào)一些數(shù)據(jù)表明了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在實(shí)力。阿波羅(Apollo)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托爾斯滕·斯洛克在上周六的一份報(bào)告中表示,亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Atlanta Fed)的GDP追蹤器顯示,第三季度美國(guó)GDP增幅為2.9%。

斯洛克補(bǔ)充道:“關(guān)鍵是,目前沒(méi)有跡象表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)良好,餐廳預(yù)訂、航空旅行、酒店預(yù)訂、信用卡數(shù)據(jù)、銀行貸款、百老匯演出上座率、票房收入等每日和每周數(shù)據(jù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),每周的破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)數(shù)據(jù)則持續(xù)下降。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

一直以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家魯里埃爾·魯比尼因?yàn)楸^的預(yù)言而被稱(chēng)為“末日博士”,但在華爾街最近陷入恐慌時(shí),他卻一反常態(tài)地表達(dá)了樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。

上周三,他在接受彭博電視臺(tái)采訪時(shí),對(duì)擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的投資者嗤之以鼻,并開(kāi)玩笑說(shuō)股市和債券市場(chǎng)過(guò)去已經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)了十次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,實(shí)際上只發(fā)生過(guò)三次。

他還表示,去年,市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重誤判了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能進(jìn)行降息的次數(shù),因?yàn)榻灰渍哒J(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)更激進(jìn)地降息。

魯比尼表示:“市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的動(dòng)作經(jīng)常判斷錯(cuò)誤。確實(shí)有一些重要的證據(jù)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)有所放緩,但我并不認(rèn)為有數(shù)據(jù)表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)短期內(nèi)會(huì)硬著陸。事實(shí)上,反而有一些預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁的因素。”

等等,發(fā)生了什么?

魯比尼因?yàn)閷?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫的警告而聲名鵲起。他的警告最初遭到人們的嘲諷,但后來(lái)發(fā)生的全球金融危機(jī)證明了他是正確的。

在那之后,他經(jīng)常就其他多次危機(jī)發(fā)出預(yù)警,在2022年,他警告美國(guó)會(huì)發(fā)生滯漲性債務(wù)危機(jī)。2023年,他繼續(xù)發(fā)出警告,稱(chēng)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)危險(xiǎn)的“百慕大三角”和“最嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)危機(jī)”,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將發(fā)生“嚴(yán)重衰退”。

去年,經(jīng)過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)行四十年來(lái)最激進(jìn)的連續(xù)加息之后,華爾街的普遍共識(shí)是,美國(guó)將陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

但到去年9月,由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),并沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重下滑,因此他的立場(chǎng)有所軟化,稱(chēng)美國(guó)可能發(fā)生短暫或程度較輕的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的美國(guó)制造業(yè)和就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)出急劇惡化的跡象,引發(fā)全球股市暴跌,也提供了證據(jù)證明華爾街少數(shù)看空市場(chǎng)的投資者可能是正確的。

后續(xù)的每周失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請(qǐng)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期,緩解了市場(chǎng)上的緊張情緒,并幫助股市收復(fù)了大部分失地。

與此同時(shí),華爾街的其他人也強(qiáng)調(diào)一些數(shù)據(jù)表明了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在實(shí)力。阿波羅(Apollo)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托爾斯滕·斯洛克在上周六的一份報(bào)告中表示,亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Atlanta Fed)的GDP追蹤器顯示,第三季度美國(guó)GDP增幅為2.9%。

斯洛克補(bǔ)充道:“關(guān)鍵是,目前沒(méi)有跡象表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)良好,餐廳預(yù)訂、航空旅行、酒店預(yù)訂、信用卡數(shù)據(jù)、銀行貸款、百老匯演出上座率、票房收入等每日和每周數(shù)據(jù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),每周的破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)數(shù)據(jù)則持續(xù)下降。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Economist Nouriel Roubini has been such a doomsayer for so long that he’s earned the moniker “Dr. Doom,” but he sounded uncharacteristically bullish amid Wall Street’s recent panic.

During an interview on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, he dismissed investors’ fears that a downturn is coming and quipped that the stock and bond markets have predicted 10 out of the last three recessions.

He added that markets have also badly misjudged over the last year how many Fed rate cuts are on the way, as traders have seen much more aggressive easing.

“The markets are often wrong about what’s going on with the economy and what the Fed is going to be doing,” Roubini said. “There is some significant evidence of some slowdown of the economy, but I don’t think the data suggest that we’re going to have a hard landing anytime soon. If anything, actually, there’s some elements of strength in the economy.”

Wait, what?

He rose to prominence when his warnings about the economy and the housing bubble were initially laughed off—only to be proven right when the Great Financial Crisis hit.

Since then, he has regularly flagged numerous other catastrophes, and in late 2022 warned of a stagflationary debt crisis. He kept ringing the alarm into 2023, saying a “severe recession” was likely amid a “Bermuda Triangle” of economic dangers and the “mother of all debt crises.”

To be sure, the consensus on Wall Street last year was that the U.S. would tip into a recession after the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive string of rate hikes in four decades.

But by last September, as the economy continued to chug along without hitting the skids, he softened his tone, saying a short or shallow recession was possible.

Then U.S. manufacturing and payroll data earlier this month showed precipitous deterioration, triggering a massive stock selloff in global markets and providing evidence that the few remaining bears on Wall Street may be right.

Subsequent weekly jobless claims data came in lower than expected, calming nerves and helping the stock market recoup much of its losses.

Meanwhile, others on Wall Street have highlighted data that indicates underlying strength in the economy. Apollo chief economist Torsten Sl?k said in a note on Saturday that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to third-quarter growth of 2.9%.

“The bottom line is that there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in daily and weekly data for restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data, bank lending, Broadway show attendance, box office grosses, and weekly data for bankruptcy filings trending lower,” he added.

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