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英偉達(Nvidia)和“美股七雄”中的其他科技股,在今年上半年主導(dǎo)了美股市場,這讓許多投資者紛紛思考該如何調(diào)整投資組合,以充分抓住這波歷史行情。但一位資深投資專家建議投資者不要理睬干擾信息,而是專注于基本面。
投資類暢銷書《漫步華爾街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)的作者伯頓·馬爾基爾對《財富》雜志表示,對于普通投資者而言,現(xiàn)在試圖投資某些人工智能股,可能是個巨大的錯誤。不妨看看過去幾周美股市場的波動。
馬爾基爾現(xiàn)任Wealthfront公司的首席投資官。他表示:“從散戶投資者身上可以看到明確的證據(jù),你會看到交易最頻繁的人損失最大。沒有人能夠確定市場時機,不要試圖這樣做。如果你這樣做,你極有可能會預(yù)測錯誤。”
在周二公布的寫給Wealthfront投資者的信中,馬爾基爾提醒投資者,試圖選擇一個在股市中遙遙領(lǐng)先的板塊,與試圖確定市場時機的做法類似,都注定會失敗。通過投資積累財富最好的做法,依舊是堅持基本原則,包括“廣泛分散投資、指數(shù)化投資、最小化成本和稅費、重新平衡投資組合和堅持長期投資”。
他寫道:“同樣重要的是,避免即使最精心策劃的投資計劃也會出現(xiàn)的常見錯誤。其中最嚴(yán)重的錯誤之一是,被整個市場或特定行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出的極端狂喜或持續(xù)悲觀情緒所左右。”
馬爾基爾指出,在市場中實現(xiàn)可觀投資回報率的最佳方法是買入和長期持有,而不是在當(dāng)前的熱門板塊頻繁交易。從長遠來看,預(yù)測市場時機根本不可行;事實上,研究表明,許多投資者試圖把握投資時機,卻錯過了市場上的許多絕佳機會,導(dǎo)致他們無法實現(xiàn)收益最大化。投資者更有可能在低賣高買,而不是高賣低買。
他用方舟創(chuàng)新ETF(ARK Innovation ETF,ARKK)為例證明了這種趨勢。該基金的股價從2020年的每股約50美元,到2021年初隨著人工智能公司的熱度興起,上漲到超過每股130美元。馬爾基爾寫道,當(dāng)股價達到最高點時,投資者開始“每個月向該基金投入數(shù)十億美元”。熱情最終消退,ARKK的股價到2022年4月下跌到每股約47美元;投資者紛紛撤資,造成了巨大損失。
他寫道:“ARKK的例子證明,即使投資者正確選擇了一個表現(xiàn)出色的板塊,但時機錯誤可能導(dǎo)致虧損。”
馬爾基爾建議投資者,不要試圖投資最熱門的股票,而是要進行定期定額投資,或無論市場表現(xiàn)如何,每個月持續(xù)投資。采用這種策略,隨著時間的推移,市場的高低波動就會或多或少達到平衡。
在這方面,指數(shù)基金依舊是最佳選擇。廣泛的基金也解決了挑選行業(yè)的問題,因為它們能夠有效覆蓋回報率最高的行業(yè)。
他寫道:“持有廣泛指數(shù)基金的好處在于,你的投資組合中可能包括表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異的人工智能公司。”
馬爾基爾鼓勵投資者,不要試圖選股,而是要專注于自身可以控制的因素,包括投資成本。最大程度降低費用和稅費,這將對投資的長期表現(xiàn)產(chǎn)生積極影響。
他說道:“積累財富的長遠之道是堅持投資。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
英偉達(Nvidia)和“美股七雄”中的其他科技股,在今年上半年主導(dǎo)了美股市場,這讓許多投資者紛紛思考該如何調(diào)整投資組合,以充分抓住這波歷史行情。但一位資深投資專家建議投資者不要理睬干擾信息,而是專注于基本面。
投資類暢銷書《漫步華爾街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)的作者伯頓·馬爾基爾對《財富》雜志表示,對于普通投資者而言,現(xiàn)在試圖投資某些人工智能股,可能是個巨大的錯誤。不妨看看過去幾周美股市場的波動。
馬爾基爾現(xiàn)任Wealthfront公司的首席投資官。他表示:“從散戶投資者身上可以看到明確的證據(jù),你會看到交易最頻繁的人損失最大。沒有人能夠確定市場時機,不要試圖這樣做。如果你這樣做,你極有可能會預(yù)測錯誤。”
在周二公布的寫給Wealthfront投資者的信中,馬爾基爾提醒投資者,試圖選擇一個在股市中遙遙領(lǐng)先的板塊,與試圖確定市場時機的做法類似,都注定會失敗。通過投資積累財富最好的做法,依舊是堅持基本原則,包括“廣泛分散投資、指數(shù)化投資、最小化成本和稅費、重新平衡投資組合和堅持長期投資”。
他寫道:“同樣重要的是,避免即使最精心策劃的投資計劃也會出現(xiàn)的常見錯誤。其中最嚴(yán)重的錯誤之一是,被整個市場或特定行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出的極端狂喜或持續(xù)悲觀情緒所左右。”
馬爾基爾指出,在市場中實現(xiàn)可觀投資回報率的最佳方法是買入和長期持有,而不是在當(dāng)前的熱門板塊頻繁交易。從長遠來看,預(yù)測市場時機根本不可行;事實上,研究表明,許多投資者試圖把握投資時機,卻錯過了市場上的許多絕佳機會,導(dǎo)致他們無法實現(xiàn)收益最大化。投資者更有可能在低賣高買,而不是高賣低買。
他用方舟創(chuàng)新ETF(ARK Innovation ETF,ARKK)為例證明了這種趨勢。該基金的股價從2020年的每股約50美元,到2021年初隨著人工智能公司的熱度興起,上漲到超過每股130美元。馬爾基爾寫道,當(dāng)股價達到最高點時,投資者開始“每個月向該基金投入數(shù)十億美元”。熱情最終消退,ARKK的股價到2022年4月下跌到每股約47美元;投資者紛紛撤資,造成了巨大損失。
他寫道:“ARKK的例子證明,即使投資者正確選擇了一個表現(xiàn)出色的板塊,但時機錯誤可能導(dǎo)致虧損。”
馬爾基爾建議投資者,不要試圖投資最熱門的股票,而是要進行定期定額投資,或無論市場表現(xiàn)如何,每個月持續(xù)投資。采用這種策略,隨著時間的推移,市場的高低波動就會或多或少達到平衡。
在這方面,指數(shù)基金依舊是最佳選擇。廣泛的基金也解決了挑選行業(yè)的問題,因為它們能夠有效覆蓋回報率最高的行業(yè)。
他寫道:“持有廣泛指數(shù)基金的好處在于,你的投資組合中可能包括表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異的人工智能公司。”
馬爾基爾鼓勵投資者,不要試圖選股,而是要專注于自身可以控制的因素,包括投資成本。最大程度降低費用和稅費,這將對投資的長期表現(xiàn)產(chǎn)生積極影響。
他說道:“積累財富的長遠之道是堅持投資。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Nvidia and the rest of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks dominated the markets during the first half of the year, leaving many investors to wonder how they can tweak their portfolio to best take advantage of the historic runs. But a longtime investing expert is encouraging investors to tune out the noise and focus on the fundamentals.
Burton Malkiel, author of the bestselling investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, tells Fortune that trying to get in on individual AI stocks now could be a big mistake for the average investor. Just look at the shakiness of the markets over the past few weeks.
“There is such clear evidence by looking at individual investors, you see the ones who traded the most are the ones who lost the most money,” says Malkiel, who is now Wealthfront’s chief investment officer. “Nobody can time the market, don’t try to do it. And if you do, you are much more likely to get it wrong than get it right.”
In a letter to Wealthfront investors released Tuesday, Malkiel reminds readers that trying to pick a sector of the stock market that will outperform the rest is akin to trying to time the market: a losing prospect. The best practices for building wealth via investing remain the basics, including “broad diversification, indexing, minimizing costs and taxes, rebalancing, and staying the course.”
“Equally important is to avoid the common mistakes that have crushed even the best-laid investment plans,” he writes. “Among the worst mistakes is to get swept up in either extreme euphoria or in waves of unrelenting pessimism, both when it comes to the market as a whole and the performance of specific sectors.”
Malkiel notes that the best way to actually earn a decent rate of return from investing in the broader market is by buying and holding for long periods of time—not jumping in and out of the hot sector of the moment. Timing rarely works out long term; in fact, research has shown that many investors miss out on many of the best days of the market when they try to time their investments, preventing them from realizing the biggest gains. Investors are much more likely to sell at the bottom and buy at the top than the reverse.
He uses the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) to exemplify that trend. The fund went from selling for around $50 a share in 2020 to over $130 a share in early 2021, after interest in artificial intelligence companies took off. Investors started “pouring several billion dollars per month into the fund,” Malkiel writes, when prices were at their peak. The enthusiasm eventually subsided, and ARKK’s price fell back to around $47 a share by April 2022; investors withdrew their money, leading to major losses.
“As the ARKK example demonstrates, even when investors correctly pick a high-performing sector, timing errors can lead to negative returns,” he writes.
Instead of trying to get in on the buzziest stocks, Malkiel encourages investors to stick with dollar-cost averaging, or consistently investing money each month regardless of what the market is doing. With this strategy, over time, the highs and lows more or less even out.
In that regard, index funds are still king. And a broad-based fund solves the problem of picking sectors as well, because they give meaningful exposure to the sectors producing the best returns.
“The beauty of owning a broad index is that you’re likely to get exposure to that AI winner in your portfolio anyway,” he writes.
Rather than trying to pick stocks, Malkiel encourages investors to focus on what they can control, including the cost of their investments. Keep fund fees and taxes minimal, and that will have more of a positive effect long-term on their performance.
“The long-run way to build wealth is to just keep on going,” he says.