上周日的法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)選舉中,左翼聯(lián)盟出人意料地獲得勝選,不過(guò)這也導(dǎo)致議會(huì)中沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)政黨能占到絕對(duì)多數(shù)席位。法國(guó)未來(lái)很可能將迎來(lái)一段政治動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期。
左翼聯(lián)盟“新人民陣線”由法國(guó)社會(huì)黨和極左翼政黨“不屈的法蘭西”組成,它有望在國(guó)民議會(huì)中獲得 171 到 205 個(gè)席位。瑪琳娜·勒龐領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)民聯(lián)盟上周曾被民調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為將贏得最多席位,但它的選舉結(jié)果卻并不樂(lè)觀,預(yù)計(jì)只能獲得130至152個(gè)席位,在國(guó)民議會(huì)中排在第三。馬克龍總統(tǒng)的中間派聯(lián)盟則將以152至180個(gè)席位成為國(guó)會(huì)中的第二大黨。
法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)共有577個(gè)席位,要想在其中達(dá)到絕對(duì)多數(shù),則至少要占據(jù)289個(gè)席位。由于三大陣營(yíng)都未達(dá)到這個(gè)數(shù)字,那么對(duì)于法國(guó)這樣一個(gè)沒(méi)有政治結(jié)盟傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō),它下一步將如何組成一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的政府,來(lái)推動(dòng)各項(xiàng)立法和政策,就成了一個(gè)值得觀察的問(wèn)題。
法國(guó)總理加布里埃爾·阿塔爾宣布,他將于本周一向總統(tǒng)馬克龍遞交辭呈,此舉也代表著新一屆政府即將啟動(dòng)組建程序。
歐元在本交易日開(kāi)始時(shí)有所下滑,因?yàn)榉▏?guó)的選舉結(jié)果是很多人都沒(méi)有預(yù)料到的,加上法國(guó)各政黨都承諾將大幅提高公共開(kāi)支,導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)法國(guó)財(cái)政問(wèn)題的擔(dān)憂再度凸顯。
據(jù)蒙田研究所估算,如果將“新人民陣線”在選舉時(shí)的承諾都落到實(shí)處,那么法國(guó)政府需要每年新增開(kāi)支近1790億歐元(約合1940億美元)。而極右翼的“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”承諾的新增開(kāi)支是710 億歐元左右,馬克龍的中間派聯(lián)盟也承諾將新增開(kāi)支近 210 億歐元。
勒龐對(duì)此次選舉結(jié)果給予了較為積極的評(píng)價(jià),并表示“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”有望成為國(guó)民議會(huì)中獲得席位最多的單一政黨。(“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”在上次議會(huì)選舉中獲得了89 個(gè)席位。)
勒龐表示:“現(xiàn)在是漲潮的時(shí)候,雖然漲得還不夠高,但是還在繼續(xù)上漲。”
此次選舉結(jié)果出乎很多人的意料,它也意味著沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)陣營(yíng)贏得了絕對(duì)多數(shù)席位,下一步,法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)注定將形成三足鼎立的局面。愛(ài)麗舍宮的一位官員發(fā)表聲明稱,馬克龍將在國(guó)民議會(huì)換血結(jié)束后,再就任命下一任總理一事做出決定。
法國(guó)現(xiàn)在面臨著兩個(gè)選擇,而且它們?cè)诋?dāng)代法國(guó)歷史上是沒(méi)有先例的。首先,馬克龍可以調(diào)和各方勢(shì)力就一些問(wèn)題組成一個(gè)松散聯(lián)盟,但這首先要求“新人民陣線”在他的號(hào)召下分裂重組,而且沒(méi)有激進(jìn)分子加入這個(gè)新聯(lián)盟。
另外,馬克龍也可以任命一個(gè)技術(shù)官僚政府,以彌合當(dāng)下的政治動(dòng)蕩期。但是這兩種解決方案都意味著政府權(quán)力將被削弱,法國(guó)將難以通過(guò)任何有意義的立法,而且法國(guó)在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上的影響力也將減弱。
馬克龍政府的首任總理愛(ài)德華·菲利普上周日晚警告稱:“國(guó)民議會(huì)沒(méi)有選出占多數(shù)席位的政黨,加之缺乏一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的政府,將使法國(guó)和法國(guó)人民面臨巨大危險(xiǎn)。中央政治力量現(xiàn)在肩負(fù)著一個(gè)無(wú)法回避的責(zé)任,他們必須不辱使命,達(dá)成某種政治協(xié)議,以穩(wěn)定當(dāng)前的政治局勢(shì)。”
“不屈的法蘭西”的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人讓·呂克·梅朗雄上周日向支持者們表示,在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,“新人民陣線”將全面實(shí)施他的綱領(lǐng),而且他也不會(huì)與馬克龍做政治交易。法國(guó)社會(huì)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人奧利維耶·福爾的表態(tài)則相對(duì)溫和,他表示,社會(huì)黨的責(zé)任是“找到一條路”回應(yīng)法國(guó)人民的呼聲和需要。
自從四個(gè)星期前,馬克龍宣布大選開(kāi)始以來(lái),法國(guó)股市連日暴跌。但自上周末以來(lái),隨著坊間猜測(cè)勒龐的極右翼政黨可能獲勝,并且也接受了左右兩派有可能都無(wú)法獨(dú)自左右政府的前景,法國(guó)股市開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)反彈。
從選舉結(jié)果看,雖然勒龐的右翼政黨的席位數(shù)量低于預(yù)期,而且馬克龍陣營(yíng)的席位數(shù)有所上升,但這也足以讓一些交易員松一口氣了。不過(guò)左翼集團(tuán)的獲勝,還是有可能在未來(lái)幾周內(nèi)對(duì)法國(guó)資產(chǎn)造成損害。
摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司全球市場(chǎng)策略師文森特·朱文斯認(rèn)為,此次法國(guó)大選結(jié)果有可能導(dǎo)致法國(guó)和德國(guó)債券收益率之間的利差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。
“歐盟委員會(huì)和評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)都希望法國(guó)將公共開(kāi)支削減200億至300億歐元,但實(shí)際上,法國(guó)政府很可能要面對(duì)的是一個(gè)打算新增1200億歐元開(kāi)支的政黨。這很有可能在未來(lái)幾周導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)緊張。只要新政府還沒(méi)有澄清其在財(cái)政問(wèn)題上的立場(chǎng),市場(chǎng)壓力就可能導(dǎo)致利差進(jìn)一步加大。”朱文斯說(shuō)。
在上個(gè)月的歐洲議會(huì)選舉中,馬克龍的執(zhí)政黨慘敗給了勒龐的政黨,隨即馬克龍宣布解散國(guó)民議會(huì),進(jìn)行重新選舉。他的這一決定也遭到了廣泛批評(píng),特別是上周的第一輪投票結(jié)束后,馬克龍所在的陣營(yíng)屈居第三,而且與前兩個(gè)陣營(yíng)差距很大,而勒龐的陣營(yíng)則在上輪投票中掌握了主動(dòng)權(quán)。
在過(guò)去的一周里,法國(guó)各政黨都在為激活所謂的“共和陣線”而瘋狂努力——根據(jù)這一安排,各主要政黨將戰(zhàn)略性地從某些競(jìng)選中撤出候選人,以增加反對(duì)“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”的選票。馬克龍的政黨從勝算不大的決選中撤回了 76 名候選人,以避免分裂反勒龐選民的選票。“新人民陣線”也撤回了 130 名候選人。
“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”主席若爾當(dāng)·巴爾代拉批評(píng)了這些政黨的策略,并表示愛(ài)麗舍宮策劃的這一做法 “不會(huì)有任何成果”。
Teneo 公司的研究部副主任安東尼奧·巴羅佐在一份報(bào)告中指出,法國(guó)新政府的組建將十分復(fù)雜,可能會(huì)需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
法國(guó)前總理菲利普也表示:“這種政治分裂給國(guó)家?guī)?lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不容小覷的,法國(guó)的信譽(yù)和信用都將受到嚴(yán)重打擊。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
在上周日的法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)選舉中,左翼聯(lián)盟出人意料地獲得勝選,不過(guò)這也導(dǎo)致議會(huì)中沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)政黨能占到絕對(duì)多數(shù)席位。法國(guó)未來(lái)很可能將迎來(lái)一段政治動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期。
左翼聯(lián)盟“新人民陣線”由法國(guó)社會(huì)黨和極左翼政黨“不屈的法蘭西”組成,它有望在國(guó)民議會(huì)中獲得 171 到 205 個(gè)席位。瑪琳娜·勒龐領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)民聯(lián)盟上周曾被民調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為將贏得最多席位,但它的選舉結(jié)果卻并不樂(lè)觀,預(yù)計(jì)只能獲得130至152個(gè)席位,在國(guó)民議會(huì)中排在第三。馬克龍總統(tǒng)的中間派聯(lián)盟則將以152至180個(gè)席位成為國(guó)會(huì)中的第二大黨。
法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)共有577個(gè)席位,要想在其中達(dá)到絕對(duì)多數(shù),則至少要占據(jù)289個(gè)席位。由于三大陣營(yíng)都未達(dá)到這個(gè)數(shù)字,那么對(duì)于法國(guó)這樣一個(gè)沒(méi)有政治結(jié)盟傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō),它下一步將如何組成一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的政府,來(lái)推動(dòng)各項(xiàng)立法和政策,就成了一個(gè)值得觀察的問(wèn)題。
法國(guó)總理加布里埃爾·阿塔爾宣布,他將于本周一向總統(tǒng)馬克龍遞交辭呈,此舉也代表著新一屆政府即將啟動(dòng)組建程序。
歐元在本交易日開(kāi)始時(shí)有所下滑,因?yàn)榉▏?guó)的選舉結(jié)果是很多人都沒(méi)有預(yù)料到的,加上法國(guó)各政黨都承諾將大幅提高公共開(kāi)支,導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)法國(guó)財(cái)政問(wèn)題的擔(dān)憂再度凸顯。
據(jù)蒙田研究所估算,如果將“新人民陣線”在選舉時(shí)的承諾都落到實(shí)處,那么法國(guó)政府需要每年新增開(kāi)支近1790億歐元(約合1940億美元)。而極右翼的“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”承諾的新增開(kāi)支是710 億歐元左右,馬克龍的中間派聯(lián)盟也承諾將新增開(kāi)支近 210 億歐元。
勒龐對(duì)此次選舉結(jié)果給予了較為積極的評(píng)價(jià),并表示“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”有望成為國(guó)民議會(huì)中獲得席位最多的單一政黨。(“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”在上次議會(huì)選舉中獲得了89 個(gè)席位。)
勒龐表示:“現(xiàn)在是漲潮的時(shí)候,雖然漲得還不夠高,但是還在繼續(xù)上漲。”
此次選舉結(jié)果出乎很多人的意料,它也意味著沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)陣營(yíng)贏得了絕對(duì)多數(shù)席位,下一步,法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)注定將形成三足鼎立的局面。愛(ài)麗舍宮的一位官員發(fā)表聲明稱,馬克龍將在國(guó)民議會(huì)換血結(jié)束后,再就任命下一任總理一事做出決定。
法國(guó)現(xiàn)在面臨著兩個(gè)選擇,而且它們?cè)诋?dāng)代法國(guó)歷史上是沒(méi)有先例的。首先,馬克龍可以調(diào)和各方勢(shì)力就一些問(wèn)題組成一個(gè)松散聯(lián)盟,但這首先要求“新人民陣線”在他的號(hào)召下分裂重組,而且沒(méi)有激進(jìn)分子加入這個(gè)新聯(lián)盟。
另外,馬克龍也可以任命一個(gè)技術(shù)官僚政府,以彌合當(dāng)下的政治動(dòng)蕩期。但是這兩種解決方案都意味著政府權(quán)力將被削弱,法國(guó)將難以通過(guò)任何有意義的立法,而且法國(guó)在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上的影響力也將減弱。
馬克龍政府的首任總理愛(ài)德華·菲利普上周日晚警告稱:“國(guó)民議會(huì)沒(méi)有選出占多數(shù)席位的政黨,加之缺乏一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的政府,將使法國(guó)和法國(guó)人民面臨巨大危險(xiǎn)。中央政治力量現(xiàn)在肩負(fù)著一個(gè)無(wú)法回避的責(zé)任,他們必須不辱使命,達(dá)成某種政治協(xié)議,以穩(wěn)定當(dāng)前的政治局勢(shì)。”
“不屈的法蘭西”的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人讓·呂克·梅朗雄上周日向支持者們表示,在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,“新人民陣線”將全面實(shí)施他的綱領(lǐng),而且他也不會(huì)與馬克龍做政治交易。法國(guó)社會(huì)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人奧利維耶·福爾的表態(tài)則相對(duì)溫和,他表示,社會(huì)黨的責(zé)任是“找到一條路”回應(yīng)法國(guó)人民的呼聲和需要。
自從四個(gè)星期前,馬克龍宣布大選開(kāi)始以來(lái),法國(guó)股市連日暴跌。但自上周末以來(lái),隨著坊間猜測(cè)勒龐的極右翼政黨可能獲勝,并且也接受了左右兩派有可能都無(wú)法獨(dú)自左右政府的前景,法國(guó)股市開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)反彈。
從選舉結(jié)果看,雖然勒龐的右翼政黨的席位數(shù)量低于預(yù)期,而且馬克龍陣營(yíng)的席位數(shù)有所上升,但這也足以讓一些交易員松一口氣了。不過(guò)左翼集團(tuán)的獲勝,還是有可能在未來(lái)幾周內(nèi)對(duì)法國(guó)資產(chǎn)造成損害。
摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司全球市場(chǎng)策略師文森特·朱文斯認(rèn)為,此次法國(guó)大選結(jié)果有可能導(dǎo)致法國(guó)和德國(guó)債券收益率之間的利差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。
“歐盟委員會(huì)和評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)都希望法國(guó)將公共開(kāi)支削減200億至300億歐元,但實(shí)際上,法國(guó)政府很可能要面對(duì)的是一個(gè)打算新增1200億歐元開(kāi)支的政黨。這很有可能在未來(lái)幾周導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)緊張。只要新政府還沒(méi)有澄清其在財(cái)政問(wèn)題上的立場(chǎng),市場(chǎng)壓力就可能導(dǎo)致利差進(jìn)一步加大。”朱文斯說(shuō)。
在上個(gè)月的歐洲議會(huì)選舉中,馬克龍的執(zhí)政黨慘敗給了勒龐的政黨,隨即馬克龍宣布解散國(guó)民議會(huì),進(jìn)行重新選舉。他的這一決定也遭到了廣泛批評(píng),特別是上周的第一輪投票結(jié)束后,馬克龍所在的陣營(yíng)屈居第三,而且與前兩個(gè)陣營(yíng)差距很大,而勒龐的陣營(yíng)則在上輪投票中掌握了主動(dòng)權(quán)。
在過(guò)去的一周里,法國(guó)各政黨都在為激活所謂的“共和陣線”而瘋狂努力——根據(jù)這一安排,各主要政黨將戰(zhàn)略性地從某些競(jìng)選中撤出候選人,以增加反對(duì)“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”的選票。馬克龍的政黨從勝算不大的決選中撤回了 76 名候選人,以避免分裂反勒龐選民的選票。“新人民陣線”也撤回了 130 名候選人。
“國(guó)民聯(lián)盟”主席若爾當(dāng)·巴爾代拉批評(píng)了這些政黨的策略,并表示愛(ài)麗舍宮策劃的這一做法 “不會(huì)有任何成果”。
Teneo 公司的研究部副主任安東尼奧·巴羅佐在一份報(bào)告中指出,法國(guó)新政府的組建將十分復(fù)雜,可能會(huì)需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
法國(guó)前總理菲利普也表示:“這種政治分裂給國(guó)家?guī)?lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不容小覷的,法國(guó)的信譽(yù)和信用都將受到嚴(yán)重打擊。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
France looks headed for political instability after a surprise win by a left-wing coalition in Sunday’s legislative election left no party able to claim the majority needed to govern.
The New Popular Front — which includes the Socialists and far-left France Unbowed — is poised to get between 171 and 205 seats in the National Assembly. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which pollsters last week had seen winning the most seats, is expected to come third, getting between 130 and 152 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance is set to place second with 152 to 180.
Will all three groups falling far short of the 289 required for an absolute majority in the 577-seat lower house, it’s unclear how the country, which doesn’t have a tradition of coalitions, will form a government that is able to pass laws.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced that he would present his resignation to Macron on Monday, which would start the process for the formation of a new government.
The euro slipped at the start of trading, as investors digested a result that few had anticipated and brings back to the fore concern about France’s fiscal problems, given parties’ commitment to a major increase in public spending.
The Institut Montaigne estimates that the campaign pledges by the New Popular Front would require nearly €179 billion ($194 billion) in extra funds per year. The far-right National Rally’s plans would cost about €71 billion, while Macron’s party and its allies would incur extra spending of close to €21 billion.
Le Pen put a positive spin on the results, pointing out that National Rally, which had 89 spots in the previous legislature, is on course to get the most seats of any single party.
“The tide is rising,” Le Pen said. “It hasn’t risen high enough this time, but it’s still rising.”
The unexpected result means no single alliance has the numbers to to govern with an absolute majority, fragmenting the legislature into three distinct groups with divergent agendas. Macron will wait for the new configuration of the National Assembly before making any further decisions on naming the next prime minister, according to a statement from an Elysee official.
France will now face two options, which have little precedent in the history of the modern republic. Macron could try to cobble together a coalition among willing but not always like-minded parties, but that would require the New Popular Front to break apart and reconfigure behind the president without its more radical elements.
Or Macron could name a technocratic administration that could bridge the period of political turmoil. Both solutions will likely mean a weakened government that will have trouble passing any meaningful legislation and with less influence on the international stage.
“The absence of majority and the absence of government will expose France and French people to formidable danger,” Macron’s first prime minister, Edouard Philippe, warned on Sunday night. “Central political forces now have a responsibility they cannot duck: They must work for an agreement without dishonor that will stabilize the political situation.”
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of France Unbowed, told supporters Sunday that his New Popular Front would implement its program in its entirety and that he would refuse to enter into a deal with Macron. But Socialist leader Olivier Faure struck a more conciliatory note, saying it’s the party’s job to “find a path” to respond to the needs and demands of French people.
French assets tumbled in the days after Macron announced the snap election four weeks ago, but bounced late last week when traders started to price out an absolute majority for Le Pen’s far-right party, and embrace the prospect of a gridlocked government in which neither right nor left had unchecked power.
While a lower-than-expected seat count for Le Pen’s party and a bump for Macron’s bloc thus came as a relief to some traders, the win for the left bloc is likely to hurt French assets in the weeks to come.
For Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, that could pop up in the spread between French and German bond yields, which he sees widening.
“The European Commission and rating agencies are expecting €20 billion to €30 billion euros of cuts but the government will actually have to deal with a party which want to increase spending by €120 billion,” Juvyns said. “This could create tension across markets in the coming weeks. Markets may demand a higher spread as long as the new government hasn’t clarified its fiscal position.”
Sunday’s projections offer some vindication for Macron’s call to dissolve parliament following a crushing defeat to Le Pen’s party last month. He was been widely criticized for the decision after his party finished a distant third in the first round of voting last week in which Le Pen seized the initiative.
The past week has seen frantic efforts to activate the so called Republican Front — an arrangement in which mainstream parties strategically pull candidates from certain races to bolster votes against the National Rally. Macron’s party withdrew 76 candidates from runoff contests where they had little chance of winning, in order to avoid splitting the anti-Le Pen vote. The New Popular Front withdrew 130.
National Rally President Jordan Bardella criticized the strategy, saying that the approach orchestrated by the Elysee palace “is not going anywhere.”
Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo, wrote in a note that the formation of a new government would be complicated and could take a long time.
“This indecision runs a risk for the country that nobody should underestimate,” Philippe said. “The credibility of our country could be hit, as well as its credit ruined.”