20世紀90年代,在金·本特森從氣象學專業(yè)畢業(yè)時,能選的就業(yè)去向只有丹麥國家氣象局,金融業(yè)根本不在他的考慮范圍內。
他在氣象局工作了五年,也在兩家公司做過銷售,后又加入一家能源貿易公司——丹斯克商品公司(Danske Commodities)。作為該公司的首位氣象學家,他的老板當時甚至不太清楚如何在交易場中發(fā)揮他的才干,所以干脆讓他自行決定。
本特森告訴《財富》雜志:“職位介紹里只是說要‘找到你的位置,滿足公司需要’。所以具體做些什么工作幾乎完全取決于我,我要自己去了解自己在哪里可以發(fā)揮作用,或者能為公司提供些價值”。
金融世界一直在不斷變化,華爾街交易員的教育背景也會隨之改變。上個月,貝萊德(BlackRock)首席運營官對一名《財富》嘉賓說,他們公司在招聘時,特別強調要招聘有文科背景的候選人,而不僅僅是傳統(tǒng)的金融和商科畢業(yè)生。但隨著公司在大宗商品和能源領域采用的交易策略越來越復雜,一門學科卻意外受到熱捧,那就是氣象學。
長期以來,訓練有素的氣象學家一般都會加入電視臺或政府的氣象預報機構,從事氣象工作,但現(xiàn)在他們卻越來越多地開始投身金融領域,并在這里發(fā)光發(fā)熱。由于氣候變化使極端天氣事件變得越發(fā)常見,可再生能源的興起又催生出了全新的電力市場,準確預報天氣的重要性日益凸顯。
賓夕法尼亞州立大學氣象學與大氣科學教授、美國氣象學會(American Meteorological Society)前主席詹尼·埃文斯告訴《財富》雜志:“工業(yè)界吸收了許多氣象學家,行業(yè)也越發(fā)多樣化,比如能源工業(yè)、交通運輸業(yè)等等,不勝枚舉”。
事實上,這些氣象專家的專業(yè)能力或將在未來幾個月迎來一場大考。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報道,今年夏天,整個北半球將迎來破紀錄熱浪,受此影響,包括能源和農作物在內,大宗商品的價格預計將會一飛沖天。
過去幾十年,金融領域發(fā)生了巨大變化,隨之而來的是該行業(yè)對氣象專業(yè)知識的需求明顯上升。20世紀90年代初,許多預報員仍需手繪天氣圖,與后來實現(xiàn)普及的復雜計算機化技術相比,可謂天差地別。
如今,本特森正以氣象專家團隊成員的身份與丹斯克的交易團隊展開合作,就天氣趨勢將對能源市場產(chǎn)生的影響提供見解。像本特森這樣的金融氣象學家及其氣象團隊既關注短期預測,也關注長期預測。例如,他們既要估算當前氣象條件對未來幾小時或幾天內風力渦輪發(fā)電機發(fā)電量的影響,也要考慮拉尼娜等更大范圍現(xiàn)象對作物產(chǎn)量或太陽能輸出的影響。新就業(yè)場景的出現(xiàn)為剛畢業(yè)的學生開辟了一條全新職業(yè)道路。
本特森說:“現(xiàn)在,丹麥國家氣象研究所員工跳槽的意愿越來越強,而且這種勢頭有增無減。”
他指出,過去五年,丹麥氣象學畢業(yè)生在考慮工作去向時的想法已經(jīng)發(fā)生變化,“如果他們想從事金融工作,也不失為一種可行選擇”。
在傳統(tǒng)雇主(如新聞電視臺)采用計算機取代了部分預報人員的工作、對氣候科學家的需求出現(xiàn)下降的當下,這對氣候科學家來說無疑是個好消息,。
隨著巨災債券市場規(guī)模的高速增長,金融部門對天氣預報的興趣也越發(fā)高漲。巨災債券是一種與保險掛鉤的小眾資產(chǎn)類別,市場規(guī)模約1200億美元,去年,此類債券的回報較普通對沖基金高出35%。同樣,天氣衍生品(可以在企業(yè)遭遇嚴重風暴或干旱等事件時為其提供保障)的市場規(guī)模也達到了250億美元。在這兩個市場,誰能準確預測天氣,誰就能掌握終極優(yōu)勢,幫助投資者找到定價不準確的資產(chǎn)。
肯·格里芬旗下市值600億美元的城堡投資(Citadel)或許比其他任何公司都更善于將預測專長轉化為盈利性交易策略。據(jù)《金融時報》(Financial Times)報道,在城堡投資從學術界和國家氣象預報部門挖來的20人預測團隊幫助下,該公司大宗商品部門創(chuàng)造了數(shù)十億美元收入。城堡投資拒絕對此發(fā)表評論。
隨著天氣建模技術的精確度日益提高,相關企業(yè)將繼續(xù)爭奪大宗商品和巨災債券等市場的主導地位,由此可以預見,市場對氣象學家專業(yè)技能的需求將繼續(xù)增加。
埃文斯說:“(金融)市場為氣象學專業(yè)畢業(yè)生提供的就業(yè)機會在不斷增加,不過目前受益的主要是碩士和博士畢業(yè)生。為更好地發(fā)揮他們的才能,該行業(yè)也在不斷開拓思路,尋找新的方法。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
20世紀90年代,在金·本特森從氣象學專業(yè)畢業(yè)時,能選的就業(yè)去向只有丹麥國家氣象局,金融業(yè)根本不在他的考慮范圍內。
他在氣象局工作了五年,也在兩家公司做過銷售,后又加入一家能源貿易公司——丹斯克商品公司(Danske Commodities)。作為該公司的首位氣象學家,他的老板當時甚至不太清楚如何在交易場中發(fā)揮他的才干,所以干脆讓他自行決定。
本特森告訴《財富》雜志:“職位介紹里只是說要‘找到你的位置,滿足公司需要’。所以具體做些什么工作幾乎完全取決于我,我要自己去了解自己在哪里可以發(fā)揮作用,或者能為公司提供些價值”。
金融世界一直在不斷變化,華爾街交易員的教育背景也會隨之改變。上個月,貝萊德(BlackRock)首席運營官對一名《財富》嘉賓說,他們公司在招聘時,特別強調要招聘有文科背景的候選人,而不僅僅是傳統(tǒng)的金融和商科畢業(yè)生。但隨著公司在大宗商品和能源領域采用的交易策略越來越復雜,一門學科卻意外受到熱捧,那就是氣象學。
長期以來,訓練有素的氣象學家一般都會加入電視臺或政府的氣象預報機構,從事氣象工作,但現(xiàn)在他們卻越來越多地開始投身金融領域,并在這里發(fā)光發(fā)熱。由于氣候變化使極端天氣事件變得越發(fā)常見,可再生能源的興起又催生出了全新的電力市場,準確預報天氣的重要性日益凸顯。
賓夕法尼亞州立大學氣象學與大氣科學教授、美國氣象學會(American Meteorological Society)前主席詹尼·埃文斯告訴《財富》雜志:“工業(yè)界吸收了許多氣象學家,行業(yè)也越發(fā)多樣化,比如能源工業(yè)、交通運輸業(yè)等等,不勝枚舉”。
事實上,這些氣象專家的專業(yè)能力或將在未來幾個月迎來一場大考。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)報道,今年夏天,整個北半球將迎來破紀錄熱浪,受此影響,包括能源和農作物在內,大宗商品的價格預計將會一飛沖天。
過去幾十年,金融領域發(fā)生了巨大變化,隨之而來的是該行業(yè)對氣象專業(yè)知識的需求明顯上升。20世紀90年代初,許多預報員仍需手繪天氣圖,與后來實現(xiàn)普及的復雜計算機化技術相比,可謂天差地別。
如今,本特森正以氣象專家團隊成員的身份與丹斯克的交易團隊展開合作,就天氣趨勢將對能源市場產(chǎn)生的影響提供見解。像本特森這樣的金融氣象學家及其氣象團隊既關注短期預測,也關注長期預測。例如,他們既要估算當前氣象條件對未來幾小時或幾天內風力渦輪發(fā)電機發(fā)電量的影響,也要考慮拉尼娜等更大范圍現(xiàn)象對作物產(chǎn)量或太陽能輸出的影響。新就業(yè)場景的出現(xiàn)為剛畢業(yè)的學生開辟了一條全新職業(yè)道路。
本特森說:“現(xiàn)在,丹麥國家氣象研究所員工跳槽的意愿越來越強,而且這種勢頭有增無減。”
他指出,過去五年,丹麥氣象學畢業(yè)生在考慮工作去向時的想法已經(jīng)發(fā)生變化,“如果他們想從事金融工作,也不失為一種可行選擇”。
在傳統(tǒng)雇主(如新聞電視臺)采用計算機取代了部分預報人員的工作、對氣候科學家的需求出現(xiàn)下降的當下,這對氣候科學家來說無疑是個好消息,。
隨著巨災債券市場規(guī)模的高速增長,金融部門對天氣預報的興趣也越發(fā)高漲。巨災債券是一種與保險掛鉤的小眾資產(chǎn)類別,市場規(guī)模約1200億美元,去年,此類債券的回報較普通對沖基金高出35%。同樣,天氣衍生品(可以在企業(yè)遭遇嚴重風暴或干旱等事件時為其提供保障)的市場規(guī)模也達到了250億美元。在這兩個市場,誰能準確預測天氣,誰就能掌握終極優(yōu)勢,幫助投資者找到定價不準確的資產(chǎn)。
肯·格里芬旗下市值600億美元的城堡投資(Citadel)或許比其他任何公司都更善于將預測專長轉化為盈利性交易策略。據(jù)《金融時報》(Financial Times)報道,在城堡投資從學術界和國家氣象預報部門挖來的20人預測團隊幫助下,該公司大宗商品部門創(chuàng)造了數(shù)十億美元收入。城堡投資拒絕對此發(fā)表評論。
隨著天氣建模技術的精確度日益提高,相關企業(yè)將繼續(xù)爭奪大宗商品和巨災債券等市場的主導地位,由此可以預見,市場對氣象學家專業(yè)技能的需求將繼續(xù)增加。
埃文斯說:“(金融)市場為氣象學專業(yè)畢業(yè)生提供的就業(yè)機會在不斷增加,不過目前受益的主要是碩士和博士畢業(yè)生。為更好地發(fā)揮他們的才能,該行業(yè)也在不斷開拓思路,尋找新的方法。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
When Kim Bentzen graduated with a meteorology degree in the 1990s, the only career path he saw was Denmark’s national weather service, and going into finance wasn’t on his radar at all.
After five years at the state weather service and two stints working in sales at other companies, he applied for a job at Danske Commodities, an energy trading firm. As the first meteorologist on staff, his bosses were still a little fuzzy on how exactly they would use his skills on the trading floor—they left that part up to him.
“I was there with a job description that just said, find out wherever you fit in to what we need. So it was pretty much up to me—where I could find a niche for myself or where I could find some kind of value I could provide,” Bentzen told Fortune.
The world of finance is always changing, and Wall Street traders’ educational backgrounds are changing with it. Last month, BlackRock’s COO told a?Fortune?panelist that the firm was emphasizing candidates with backgrounds in the liberal arts in its recruiting, not just traditional finance and business graduates. But one unexpected discipline is in high demand as firms adopt increasingly sophisticated trading strategies in the commodities and energy world: Meteorology.
Long pigeonholed into weather jobs at TV stations or government forecasting agencies, trained meteorologists are increasingly finding opportunities in finance. As climate change makes extreme weather events more common and the rise of renewable energy creates new power markets, accurately forecasting the weather has become a more important edge.
“Industry is absorbing meteorologists for a lot more applications—such as the energy industry, transportation…You can think of many more applications,” Jenni Evans, professor of meteorology and atmospheric science at Penn State and former president of the American Meteorological Society, told Fortune.
In fact, the next few months could put their meteorological skills to the test. Traders are scrambling to brace for a record-breaking heat wave across the Northern Hemisphere this summer, which is expected to send prices for commodities, including energy and crops, flying from historical norms, Bloomberg?reported.
An uptick in demand for meteorology expertise in finance has accompanied sea changes across the field more generally over the past few decades. In the early 1990s, many forecasters were still drawing weather maps by hand, a far cry from the sophisticated, computerized techniques that have since become commonplace.
Today, Bentzen is part of a team of meteorology experts that works alongside Danske’s trading floor, providing insight on how weather trends will affect energy markets. Financial meteorologists like Bentzen and his team look at both short-term and long-term forecasts: For example, estimating how weather conditions will affect wind turbines’ generation capacity over the next few hours or days, alongside how larger phenomena like La Ni?a could impact crop yields or solar output. It’s created a new possible career path for newly minted graduates.
“In Denmark, the people working in the National Weather Institute are more and more open to other places to work. It is something that is growing,” Bentzen said.
He noted that over the past five years, he’s seen a shift in how Danish meteorology grads are thinking about where they want to work, and finance “is a possibility, if they would like to pursue that.”
That’s a welcome development for climate scientists who have been hurt by decreased demand from traditional employers such as news stations, which have slimmed down their forecasting staffs as computers have picked up the slack.
Interest in weather forecasting from the finance sector has swelled alongside huge growth in the market for catastrophe bonds, a niche, insurance-linked $120 billion asset class that outperformed the average hedge fund by by 35% last year. Likewise for weather derivatives, a $25 billion market offering businesses protection from events such as severe storms or droughts. In both of those markets, accurately predicting the weather is the ultimate edge, giving investors the ability to detect inaccurately priced assets.
Perhaps more than any other firm, Ken Griffin’s $60 billion Citadel has leveraged forecasting expertise into a lucrative trading strategy. The Financial Times reported that Citadel’s 20-person-strong forecasting team, hired out of academia and national weather forecasting departments, helped generate multiple billions of dollars’ worth of revenue for the firm’s commodities arm. Citadel declined to comment on this article.
As weather modeling techniques get more accurate and firms continue to compete for alpha in markets like commodities and catastrophe bonds, meteorologists can expect demand for their skills to continue to increase.
“[The financial] market has been expanding as a career possibility, predominantly for master’s and PhD graduates,” Evans said. “That industry has been finding more and more ways to use them.”