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這些跡象表明,“娛樂通脹”經(jīng)濟(jì)正在消亡

SEAMUS WEBSTER
2024-06-07

最近知名藝人取消和更改巡演的一系列事件表明,消費(fèi)者對(duì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂的需求可能正在放緩。

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在過(guò)去的幾年里,現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂在疫情后迎來(lái)了爆炸性復(fù)興,原因是“報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi)”的歌迷們渴望在疫情后重新回到音樂會(huì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng),他們?yōu)樘├铡に雇蛱兀═aylor Swift)的《時(shí)代之旅》和碧昂斯(Beyoncé)的《文藝復(fù)興之旅》等大型體育場(chǎng)巡演支付了高昂的費(fèi)用。

但最近知名藝人取消和更改巡演的一系列事件表明,消費(fèi)者對(duì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂的需求可能正在放緩。

上周五,Live Nation宣布詹妮弗·洛佩茲(Jennifer Lopez)將取消《這就是我》(“This Is Me…Live”)巡演,以便有更多的時(shí)間陪伴家人。一周前,黑鍵樂隊(duì)(Black Keys)表示,盡管他們新專輯中的單曲在3月份登上了公告牌另類播放排行榜的榜首,但仍將取消原定于今年秋季舉行的場(chǎng)館巡演,轉(zhuǎn)而在小型場(chǎng)館演出。

這些公告是最新跡象,表明在疫情之后出現(xiàn)的“娛樂通脹”或經(jīng)濟(jì)的至少一個(gè)方面不像去年那么強(qiáng)勁,當(dāng)時(shí)消費(fèi)者渴望彌補(bǔ)失去的經(jīng)歷,從而刺激了對(duì)機(jī)票和音樂會(huì)門票等商品的需求。

巡演代理公司Independent Artist Group的全球音樂主管賈里德·阿爾法(Jarred Arfa)說(shuō),他認(rèn)為目前的音樂會(huì)環(huán)境與其說(shuō)是放緩,不如說(shuō)是回到了疫情前的氛圍,“有很多贏家,但并非所有人都贏了?!?/p>

阿爾法在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“流量正稍許回升到原有水平,而且還有很多新興藝人,人們已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們了。新冠疫情后的一些新奇因素已不復(fù)存在?!?/p>

一個(gè)顯而易見的因素是消費(fèi)者對(duì)膨脹的成本感到疲勞。自全球擺脫疫情封鎖以來(lái),音樂會(huì)門票價(jià)格飆升。根據(jù)音樂行業(yè)出版物《明星選票》(Pollstar)的數(shù)據(jù),2019年至2023年間,前100名音樂巡演的平均票價(jià)上漲速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了通貨膨脹,從91.18美元躍升至122.84美元。

娛樂業(yè)追蹤機(jī)構(gòu)Ticket News的編輯戴夫·克拉克(Dave Clark)在接受美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司新聞(NBC News)采訪時(shí)表示:“在這個(gè)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)活動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代,有足夠需求以至于門票售罄的日子已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。”

“人們看到他們開出的部分價(jià)格,就會(huì)說(shuō)‘堅(jiān)決拒絕?!?/p>

阿爾法還表示,與過(guò)去相比,現(xiàn)在有更多的藝人開始巡演,這不僅僅是因?yàn)榉怄i期間有時(shí)間休息。其中一個(gè)重要因素是在流媒體時(shí)代,巡演給藝人帶來(lái)的回報(bào)遠(yuǎn)高于他們從流媒體上獲得的收入。但由于歌迷的時(shí)間和錢包都是有限的,這最終意味著一些藝人分得的蛋糕更小了。

阿爾法說(shuō):“有些人通常會(huì)間隔一段時(shí)間進(jìn)行巡演……現(xiàn)在他們重回舞臺(tái)了。也許他們會(huì)休息幾年,但他們?cè)谝咔槟菐啄暌呀?jīng)休息過(guò)了?!?/p>

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“流量可能仍然比正常情況下要高一些。”

不僅僅是巡回演出趨于平靜。北美票房最高的音樂節(jié)科切拉音樂節(jié)(Coachella)第一個(gè)周末的票幾乎一個(gè)月都沒有售罄。這比2023年或2022年的時(shí)間要長(zhǎng)得多,在疫情停辦兩年后,2023年和2022年周末的門票在40分鐘左右就售罄了。據(jù)《公告牌》報(bào)道,2024年音樂節(jié)開幕當(dāng)天,25萬(wàn)張門票已售出約80%。

Ticketmaster是“報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi)”現(xiàn)象的最大受益者之一。其母公司Live Nation在5月份被美國(guó)司法部起訴,指控該公司違反反壟斷法,在此之前,該公司于2023年報(bào)告了有史以來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)最好的一年。繼去年泰勒·斯威夫特和碧昂斯的大型巡演之后,這家票務(wù)巨頭的總收入增加了100億美元,而演唱會(huì)的上座率增長(zhǎng)了20%。

但有初步跡象表明,2024年增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)放緩。上周,Axios援引SeatGeek的數(shù)據(jù)報(bào)道稱,夏季演唱會(huì)門票的轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格較去年下降了約17%(平均每張門票45美元)。今年5月,美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor and Statistics)報(bào)告稱,4月份電影和音樂會(huì)門票的價(jià)格較去年上漲了3.4%,是自2021年以來(lái)的最低漲幅。

更重要的是,除了司法部訴訟、演唱會(huì)取消和民眾不滿之外,Ticketmaster還在處理影響數(shù)百萬(wàn)客戶的數(shù)據(jù)泄露事件。

Ticketmaster的母公司Live Nation在一份聲明中表示:“總體市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示需求強(qiáng)勁——盡管2024年大型體育場(chǎng)的巡回演出減少了,但是銷售額比去年有所上升,已經(jīng)售出超過(guò)1億張門票?!痹摴狙a(bǔ)充說(shuō),今年演唱會(huì)的取消率約為4%,與去年持平。

對(duì)于今年夏季巡演的大牌藝人——奧利維亞·羅德里戈(Olivia Rodrigo)、摩根·沃倫(Morgan Wallen)和扎克·布萊恩(Zach Bryan)——來(lái)說(shuō),需求仍然巨大。根據(jù)Axios的數(shù)據(jù),羅德里戈的《勇氣之旅》巡演在SeatGeek上的平均轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格為571美元。但即便如此,與去年夏天《時(shí)代之旅》巡演的天價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格(高達(dá)數(shù)千美元)相去甚遠(yuǎn)。

阿爾法說(shuō):“就大型巡演而言,我認(rèn)為今年可能會(huì)少一些。有些藝人每隔幾年就會(huì)進(jìn)行一次巡演,認(rèn)為自己無(wú)往不勝,但事實(shí)并非如此。不是所有人都能成為泰勒和碧昂斯?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

在過(guò)去的幾年里,現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂在疫情后迎來(lái)了爆炸性復(fù)興,原因是“報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi)”的歌迷們渴望在疫情后重新回到音樂會(huì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng),他們?yōu)樘├铡に雇蛱兀═aylor Swift)的《時(shí)代之旅》和碧昂斯(Beyoncé)的《文藝復(fù)興之旅》等大型體育場(chǎng)巡演支付了高昂的費(fèi)用。

但最近知名藝人取消和更改巡演的一系列事件表明,消費(fèi)者對(duì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂的需求可能正在放緩。

上周五,Live Nation宣布詹妮弗·洛佩茲(Jennifer Lopez)將取消《這就是我》(“This Is Me…Live”)巡演,以便有更多的時(shí)間陪伴家人。一周前,黑鍵樂隊(duì)(Black Keys)表示,盡管他們新專輯中的單曲在3月份登上了公告牌另類播放排行榜的榜首,但仍將取消原定于今年秋季舉行的場(chǎng)館巡演,轉(zhuǎn)而在小型場(chǎng)館演出。

這些公告是最新跡象,表明在疫情之后出現(xiàn)的“娛樂通脹”或經(jīng)濟(jì)的至少一個(gè)方面不像去年那么強(qiáng)勁,當(dāng)時(shí)消費(fèi)者渴望彌補(bǔ)失去的經(jīng)歷,從而刺激了對(duì)機(jī)票和音樂會(huì)門票等商品的需求。

巡演代理公司Independent Artist Group的全球音樂主管賈里德·阿爾法(Jarred Arfa)說(shuō),他認(rèn)為目前的音樂會(huì)環(huán)境與其說(shuō)是放緩,不如說(shuō)是回到了疫情前的氛圍,“有很多贏家,但并非所有人都贏了?!?/p>

阿爾法在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“流量正稍許回升到原有水平,而且還有很多新興藝人,人們已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們了。新冠疫情后的一些新奇因素已不復(fù)存在。”

一個(gè)顯而易見的因素是消費(fèi)者對(duì)膨脹的成本感到疲勞。自全球擺脫疫情封鎖以來(lái),音樂會(huì)門票價(jià)格飆升。根據(jù)音樂行業(yè)出版物《明星選票》(Pollstar)的數(shù)據(jù),2019年至2023年間,前100名音樂巡演的平均票價(jià)上漲速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了通貨膨脹,從91.18美元躍升至122.84美元。

娛樂業(yè)追蹤機(jī)構(gòu)Ticket News的編輯戴夫·克拉克(Dave Clark)在接受美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司新聞(NBC News)采訪時(shí)表示:“在這個(gè)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)活動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代,有足夠需求以至于門票售罄的日子已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在了。”

“人們看到他們開出的部分價(jià)格,就會(huì)說(shuō)‘堅(jiān)決拒絕?!?/p>

阿爾法還表示,與過(guò)去相比,現(xiàn)在有更多的藝人開始巡演,這不僅僅是因?yàn)榉怄i期間有時(shí)間休息。其中一個(gè)重要因素是在流媒體時(shí)代,巡演給藝人帶來(lái)的回報(bào)遠(yuǎn)高于他們從流媒體上獲得的收入。但由于歌迷的時(shí)間和錢包都是有限的,這最終意味著一些藝人分得的蛋糕更小了。

阿爾法說(shuō):“有些人通常會(huì)間隔一段時(shí)間進(jìn)行巡演……現(xiàn)在他們重回舞臺(tái)了。也許他們會(huì)休息幾年,但他們?cè)谝咔槟菐啄暌呀?jīng)休息過(guò)了?!?/p>

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“流量可能仍然比正常情況下要高一些。”

不僅僅是巡回演出趨于平靜。北美票房最高的音樂節(jié)科切拉音樂節(jié)(Coachella)第一個(gè)周末的票幾乎一個(gè)月都沒有售罄。這比2023年或2022年的時(shí)間要長(zhǎng)得多,在疫情停辦兩年后,2023年和2022年周末的門票在40分鐘左右就售罄了。據(jù)《公告牌》報(bào)道,2024年音樂節(jié)開幕當(dāng)天,25萬(wàn)張門票已售出約80%。

Ticketmaster是“報(bào)復(fù)性消費(fèi)”現(xiàn)象的最大受益者之一。其母公司Live Nation在5月份被美國(guó)司法部起訴,指控該公司違反反壟斷法,在此之前,該公司于2023年報(bào)告了有史以來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)最好的一年。繼去年泰勒·斯威夫特和碧昂斯的大型巡演之后,這家票務(wù)巨頭的總收入增加了100億美元,而演唱會(huì)的上座率增長(zhǎng)了20%。

但有初步跡象表明,2024年增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)放緩。上周,Axios援引SeatGeek的數(shù)據(jù)報(bào)道稱,夏季演唱會(huì)門票的轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格較去年下降了約17%(平均每張門票45美元)。今年5月,美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor and Statistics)報(bào)告稱,4月份電影和音樂會(huì)門票的價(jià)格較去年上漲了3.4%,是自2021年以來(lái)的最低漲幅。

更重要的是,除了司法部訴訟、演唱會(huì)取消和民眾不滿之外,Ticketmaster還在處理影響數(shù)百萬(wàn)客戶的數(shù)據(jù)泄露事件。

Ticketmaster的母公司Live Nation在一份聲明中表示:“總體市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示需求強(qiáng)勁——盡管2024年大型體育場(chǎng)的巡回演出減少了,但是銷售額比去年有所上升,已經(jīng)售出超過(guò)1億張門票?!痹摴狙a(bǔ)充說(shuō),今年演唱會(huì)的取消率約為4%,與去年持平。

對(duì)于今年夏季巡演的大牌藝人——奧利維亞·羅德里戈(Olivia Rodrigo)、摩根·沃倫(Morgan Wallen)和扎克·布萊恩(Zach Bryan)——來(lái)說(shuō),需求仍然巨大。根據(jù)Axios的數(shù)據(jù),羅德里戈的《勇氣之旅》巡演在SeatGeek上的平均轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格為571美元。但即便如此,與去年夏天《時(shí)代之旅》巡演的天價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)售價(jià)格(高達(dá)數(shù)千美元)相去甚遠(yuǎn)。

阿爾法說(shuō):“就大型巡演而言,我認(rèn)為今年可能會(huì)少一些。有些藝人每隔幾年就會(huì)進(jìn)行一次巡演,認(rèn)為自己無(wú)往不勝,但事實(shí)并非如此。不是所有人都能成為泰勒和碧昂斯?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

For the past few years, live music has enjoyed an explosive post-pandemic revival, as “revenge spending” fans itching to get back into concert venues post-pandemic paid top dollar for massive stadium tours such as Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and Beyoncé’s Renaissance Tour.

But a recent spate of tour cancellations and changes by well-known artists indicate that consumers’ appetite for live music may be slowing.

On Friday, Live Nation announced that Jennifer Lopez was canceling her “This Is Me…Live” tour to spend more time with her family, a week after the Black Keys said they were scrapping an arena tour scheduled for this fall in favor of smaller venues, even after the single from their new album topped Billboard’s Alternative Airplay chart in March.

The announcements are the most recent signs that at least one facet of the “funflation” or economy that emerged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic—when consumers eager to make up for lost experiences boosted demand for things like flights and concert tickets—isn’t as strong as it was last year.

Jarred Arfa, head of global music at the touring agency Independent Artist Group, said he believes the current concert environment is less of a slowdown than a return to a pre-pandemic atmosphere, where “there’s a lot of winners, but not everything is winning.”

“The traffic is catching up to itself a little bit, where you still have so many artists on the road, and people have seen them already,” Arfa told Fortune. “Some of that novelty factor post-COVID is no longer there.”

One obvious factor is consumer fatigue with inflated costs. Since the world emerged from pandemic lockdowns, the price of concert tickets has soared. According to the music trade publication Pollstar, the average ticket price of a top 100 music tour between 2019 and 2023 increased at a rate that well outpaced inflation, jumping from $91.18 to $122.84.

“The days where there was enough demand to sell out arenas at top dollar just isn’t there in this live events economy,” Dave Clark, editor of the entertainment-industry tracker Ticket News, said in an interview with NBC News.

“People are seeing some of the prices they’re asking and just saying, ‘Hard pass.’”

Arfa also said there are more artists touring now than in the past—and not just because of time off during lockdown. A big part factor is the streaming era, in which touring generates much better returns for artists than what they make from streams. But since fans’ time—and wallets—are finite, that ultimately translates to a smaller slice of the pie for some performers.

“You have people who normally might have spaced out their tours…who are now jumping back in,” Arfa said. “Maybe they would have taken a couple years off, but they got those COVID years off.”

“The traffic is still probably a little bit higher than it normally would be,” he added.

It isn’t just tours that are settling down. The first weekend for Coachella, the highest-grossing festival in North America, didn’t sell out for almost a month. That’s far longer than in 2023 or 2022, when both weekends sold out in around 40 minutes following a two-year pandemic hiatus. On the day the 2024 festival opened, Billboard reported that approximately 80% of the 250,000 tickets had been sold.

Ticketmaster was among the biggest beneficiaries of the “revenge spending” phenomenon. Its parent, Live Nation, reported its biggest year ever in 2023 before the DOJ sued the company in May, alleging it had violated antitrust laws. Following last year’s Taylor Swift and Beyoncé megatours, the ticketing giant reported a $10 billion increase in total revenue, while concert attendance was up 20%.

But there are early signs that growth might slow down in 2024. Last week, Axios reported that resale prices for summer concert tickets are down about 17% (or an average of $45 per ticket) from last year, citing data from SeatGeek. In May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported that April prices for movie and concert tickets climbed 3.4% from last year, the lowest increase since 2021.

What’s more, in addition to the DOJ lawsuit, concert cancellations, and popular discontent, Ticketmaster is also dealing with a data breach affecting millions of customers.

In a statement, Ticketmaster parent Live Nation said, “overall market data shows demand is strong – sales are up from last year with over 100 million tickets sold, even with fewer large stadium shows touring in 2024.” The company added that cancellation rates for concerts this year were around 4%, on par with last year.

For the biggest artists on tour this summer—Olivia Rodrigo, Morgan Wallen, and Zach Bryan—there’s still plenty of demand. The average resale price on SeatGeek for Rodgrigo’s “Guts” tour is $571, according to Axios. But even that is a far cry from the astronomical resale prices posted for the Eras Tour last summer, which reached into the thousands.

“On the megatour level, I think there may be a few less of them this year,” Arfa said. “Some artists just automatically go out every couple of years and think they’re bulletproof. And that’s not the case. Not everyone can be Taylor and Beyoncé.”

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