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華爾街女先知:通過調(diào)整抵押貸款市場,可以刺激美國經(jīng)濟(jì)

Jason Ma
2024-05-09

美國房地產(chǎn)市場蘊(yùn)藏著前所未有的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激潛力。

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2013年,梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顧問集團(tuán)的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼。圖片來源:PATRICK T. FALLON—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

曾經(jīng)預(yù)測金融危機(jī)(Great Financial Crisis)的“華爾街先知”梅雷迪斯·惠特尼表示,美國房地產(chǎn)市場蘊(yùn)藏著前所未有的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激潛力,而這無需任何聯(lián)邦支出。

梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顧問集團(tuán)(Meredith Whitney Advisory Group)的首席執(zhí)行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼最近警告說,“美國男性危機(jī)”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場構(gòu)成了威脅,同時(shí)她也強(qiáng)調(diào)了擬議中的抵押貸款市場改革可能帶來的機(jī)遇。

她在5月3日為《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)撰寫的一篇專欄文章中指出,抵押貸款融資巨頭房地美(Freddie Mac)上月要求監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)入二級(jí)抵押貸款市場,即房屋凈值貸款(允許房主以房屋凈值為抵押進(jìn)行貸款)。

這種貸款可以用于度假、婚禮、新車、投資、醫(yī)療賬單、償還債務(wù)或創(chuàng)業(yè)。換句話說,會(huì)有更多的資金推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。

房地美最為人所知的角色是:購買首次抵押貸款,將其集中起來,然后作為抵押貸款支持證券出售給投資者。這使得貸款機(jī)構(gòu)能夠?qū)⑦@些抵押貸款從其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中剝離,從而釋放流動(dòng)性,用于發(fā)放更多貸款。

惠特尼估計(jì),讓房地美來實(shí)施房屋凈值貸款,最快今年夏天就可以讓消費(fèi)者的錢包里多出1萬億美元,到秋天就能夠多出2萬億美元。她補(bǔ)充道,如果其他抵押貸款巨頭房利美(Fannie Mae)和吉利美(Ginnie Mac)跟進(jìn),潛在的刺激規(guī)模就可能超過3萬億美元。

金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,銀行大幅減少了房屋凈值貸款參與度。據(jù)惠特尼稱,未償還的房屋凈值貸款已經(jīng)從2007年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的7,000多億美元降至目前的3,500億美元。而在此期間,房價(jià)卻上漲了70%以上。

她說:“房地美提案可能會(huì)改變這一切,而且時(shí)機(jī)再好不過了。大多數(shù)美國人都感受到持續(xù)通脹的刺痛,但靠固定收入生活的美國老年人受到的打擊尤為嚴(yán)重。”

惠特尼指出,房主保險(xiǎn)和房產(chǎn)稅費(fèi)用不斷上漲,迫使美國老年人背負(fù)更多債務(wù)。這讓他們很容易受到意外支出或其他財(cái)務(wù)沖擊的影響。

雖然低于預(yù)期的4月就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示薪資有所降溫,但其他經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明消費(fèi)需求依然強(qiáng)勁,令通脹承壓。這表明現(xiàn)在可能還不是實(shí)施數(shù)萬億美元刺激計(jì)劃的最佳時(shí)機(jī),尤其是在通脹率仍然頑固高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)2%的目標(biāo)的情況下。

不過,惠特尼表示,擴(kuò)大房屋凈值貸款規(guī)模,將“在不增加政府債務(wù)的情況下,為似乎正在放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者提供巨大刺激。對(duì)于政府、華爾街和美國消費(fèi)者來說,我很少看到如此雙贏局面。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

曾經(jīng)預(yù)測金融危機(jī)(Great Financial Crisis)的“華爾街先知”梅雷迪斯·惠特尼表示,美國房地產(chǎn)市場蘊(yùn)藏著前所未有的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激潛力,而這無需任何聯(lián)邦支出。

梅雷迪斯·惠特尼顧問集團(tuán)(Meredith Whitney Advisory Group)的首席執(zhí)行官梅雷迪斯·惠特尼最近警告說,“美國男性危機(jī)”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和房地產(chǎn)市場構(gòu)成了威脅,同時(shí)她也強(qiáng)調(diào)了擬議中的抵押貸款市場改革可能帶來的機(jī)遇。

她在5月3日為《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)撰寫的一篇專欄文章中指出,抵押貸款融資巨頭房地美(Freddie Mac)上月要求監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)入二級(jí)抵押貸款市場,即房屋凈值貸款(允許房主以房屋凈值為抵押進(jìn)行貸款)。

這種貸款可以用于度假、婚禮、新車、投資、醫(yī)療賬單、償還債務(wù)或創(chuàng)業(yè)。換句話說,會(huì)有更多的資金推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。

房地美最為人所知的角色是:購買首次抵押貸款,將其集中起來,然后作為抵押貸款支持證券出售給投資者。這使得貸款機(jī)構(gòu)能夠?qū)⑦@些抵押貸款從其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中剝離,從而釋放流動(dòng)性,用于發(fā)放更多貸款。

惠特尼估計(jì),讓房地美來實(shí)施房屋凈值貸款,最快今年夏天就可以讓消費(fèi)者的錢包里多出1萬億美元,到秋天就能夠多出2萬億美元。她補(bǔ)充道,如果其他抵押貸款巨頭房利美(Fannie Mae)和吉利美(Ginnie Mac)跟進(jìn),潛在的刺激規(guī)模就可能超過3萬億美元。

金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,銀行大幅減少了房屋凈值貸款參與度。據(jù)惠特尼稱,未償還的房屋凈值貸款已經(jīng)從2007年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的7,000多億美元降至目前的3,500億美元。而在此期間,房價(jià)卻上漲了70%以上。

她說:“房地美提案可能會(huì)改變這一切,而且時(shí)機(jī)再好不過了。大多數(shù)美國人都感受到持續(xù)通脹的刺痛,但靠固定收入生活的美國老年人受到的打擊尤為嚴(yán)重。”

惠特尼指出,房主保險(xiǎn)和房產(chǎn)稅費(fèi)用不斷上漲,迫使美國老年人背負(fù)更多債務(wù)。這讓他們很容易受到意外支出或其他財(cái)務(wù)沖擊的影響。

雖然低于預(yù)期的4月就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示薪資有所降溫,但其他經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明消費(fèi)需求依然強(qiáng)勁,令通脹承壓。這表明現(xiàn)在可能還不是實(shí)施數(shù)萬億美元刺激計(jì)劃的最佳時(shí)機(jī),尤其是在通脹率仍然頑固高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)2%的目標(biāo)的情況下。

不過,惠特尼表示,擴(kuò)大房屋凈值貸款規(guī)模,將“在不增加政府債務(wù)的情況下,為似乎正在放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者提供巨大刺激。對(duì)于政府、華爾街和美國消費(fèi)者來說,我很少看到如此雙贏局面。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The U.S. housing market is harboring the potential for unprecedented economic stimulus that wouldn’t require any federal spending, according to Meredith Whitney, the one-time “Oracle of Wall Street” who predicted the Great Financial Crisis.

While she has recently warned of the dangers that the “crisis of the American male” poses to the economy and the housing market, the CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group highlighted the opportunity that a proposed reform to the mortgage market could represent.

In a column for the Financial Times on May 3, she noted that mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac asked its regulator last month to enter the secondary mortgage market, or home equity loans, which allow homeowners to borrow against the equity in their houses.

Such borrowing can be used for things like vacations, weddings, new cars, investments, medical bills, paying down debt, or starting a business. In other words, it’s more money that could power the economy.

Freddie Mac is best known for its role in buying first-time mortgages, pooling them together, and selling them to investors as mortgage-backed securities. This allows lenders to get those mortgages off their balance sheets, freeing up liquidity for more loans.

Letting Freddie Mac do this for home equity loans could start putting $1 trillion into consumers’ wallets as soon as this summer and $2 trillion by the autumn, Whitney estimated. If fellow mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac follow along, the potential stimulus could top $3 trillion, she added.

Their involvement in home equity loans would come as banks have slashed their participation following the financial crisis. Home equity loans outstanding have plunged to $350 billion today from more than $700 billion in 2007, just before the financial crisis, according to Whitney. And that’s even has home prices have shot up over 70% in that span.

“The Freddie Mac proposal could change all that, and it could not come at a better time,” she said. “Most people in the U.S. are feeling the sting of persistent inflation, but older Americans living on a fixed income have been hit particularly hard.”

She cited rising costs for homeowners insurance and property taxes, forcing older Americans to take on more debt. That’s left them vulnerable to unexpected expenses or other financial shocks.

While the lower-than-expected April jobs report showed wage growth cooled, other economic data indicate consumer demand has remained robust, keeping upward pressure on inflation. That suggests right now may not be the best time for trillions of dollars of more stimulus, especially as inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

Still, Whitney said expanding the ability to tap home equity loans would provide “big stimulus to an economy and consumer that appear to be slowing down without adding a dime to government debt. Rarely have I seen such a true win-win scenario for the government, Wall Street and the U.S. consumer.”

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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