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巴菲特接班計(jì)劃有變,格雷格·阿貝爾可能負(fù)責(zé)公司的投資業(yè)務(wù)

巴菲特的接班人是許多人最關(guān)注的議題之一。

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格雷格·阿貝爾(左)與伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司的一位股東自拍。圖片來(lái)源:JOSH FUNK—AP PHOTO

今年的伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)股東大會(huì),為股東們提供了一次最佳的機(jī)會(huì),讓他們可以聆聽(tīng)沃倫·巴菲特的未來(lái)接班人的見(jiàn)解。但公司的首席執(zhí)行官巴菲特于5月4日首次表示,格雷格·阿貝爾在接班后還將負(fù)責(zé)公司的投資決策,這讓股東們對(duì)他的接班人計(jì)劃產(chǎn)生了新的質(zhì)疑。

阿貝爾全天與巴菲特同臺(tái),展示了他在直接領(lǐng)導(dǎo)多年的公用事業(yè)部門(mén)積累的淵博知識(shí),并深入探討了伯克希爾-哈撒韋的鐵路業(yè)務(wù)和潛在收購(gòu)項(xiàng)目。93歲的億萬(wàn)富翁巴菲特則向投資者證明,他依舊頭腦清晰。

阿貝爾指出,太平洋電力公司(PacifiCorp)和其他公用事業(yè)公司的員工長(zhǎng)期專(zhuān)注于保證電力不間斷供應(yīng),這些公司需要進(jìn)行重大文化轉(zhuǎn)變,考慮當(dāng)輸電線(xiàn)路引發(fā)野火的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過(guò)大時(shí)切斷供電。他還表示,伯靈頓北方圣達(dá)菲鐵路公司(BNSF)在公布令人失望的業(yè)績(jī)之后,正在努力“優(yōu)化我們的成本結(jié)構(gòu)”。

對(duì)于在奧馬哈會(huì)場(chǎng)聽(tīng)兩人演講的數(shù)千人來(lái)說(shuō),在2023年秋天公司副董事長(zhǎng)查理·芒格去世之后,接班人顯然成為許多人最關(guān)注的議題。巴菲特、阿貝爾和保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的另外一位高管阿吉塔·賈恩安慰投資者,按照賈恩的說(shuō)法,伯克希爾-哈撒韋的董事會(huì)花費(fèi)了大量時(shí)間,專(zhuān)心解決“在我被卡車(chē)撞到之后公司運(yùn)營(yíng)可能出現(xiàn)的情況”。為三人中的任何一個(gè)人找到合適的替代者都至關(guān)重要。

巴菲特之前曾經(jīng)表示,在阿貝爾擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官之后,投資經(jīng)理泰德·韋施勒和托德·庫(kù)姆斯將負(fù)責(zé)伯克希爾-哈撒韋龐大的投資組合。庫(kù)姆斯同時(shí)還擔(dān)任美國(guó)政府員工保險(xiǎn)公司(Geico)的首席執(zhí)行官。但巴菲特在5月4日稱(chēng),他改變了想法,“我了解格雷格,我會(huì)把資本配置留給格雷格來(lái)負(fù)責(zé)。”

巴菲特還表示,這是因?yàn)榘⒇悹柗浅J煜す镜臉I(yè)務(wù),而且也了解股票。

但愛(ài)德華·瓊斯公司(Edward Jones)的分析師詹姆斯·沙納漢指出,一家好公司不一定能夠成為一只好股票,除非你可以把握好時(shí)機(jī)和倉(cāng)位規(guī)模,這是一門(mén)藝術(shù)。

沙納漢說(shuō):“我認(rèn)為選股很難。我并不認(rèn)為有人從最開(kāi)始就擅長(zhǎng)選股。”

阿貝爾在負(fù)責(zé)伯克希爾-哈撒韋公用事業(yè)部門(mén)的十年間,確實(shí)曾經(jīng)主持過(guò)數(shù)十億美元的交易,包括收購(gòu)NV Energy和AltaLink,但他從來(lái)沒(méi)有選股經(jīng)驗(yàn)。韋施勒和庫(kù)姆斯或許能夠幫助阿貝爾選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)機(jī),并在股市尋找機(jī)會(huì),但巴菲特在5月4日并沒(méi)有這樣說(shuō)。

阿貝爾向股東保證:“我們將繼續(xù)遵守目前所采用的資本配置原則。”

斯密德資本管理公司(Smead Capital Management)的科爾·斯密德稱(chēng):“這會(huì)讓你對(duì)后巴菲特時(shí)代的信心增加還是打折扣?我想說(shuō)這會(huì)讓你的信心大打折扣,這不只是因?yàn)檫@是更壞的情況,而是因?yàn)楹蜻x人的篩選過(guò)程并不透明,也沒(méi)有清晰地對(duì)公眾說(shuō)明。你會(huì)開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑,還有哪些方面會(huì)發(fā)生變化?”

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),阿貝爾獲得了伯克希爾-哈撒韋旗下許多非保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的首席執(zhí)行官們的信任,他們遇到任何挑戰(zhàn)時(shí)都會(huì)向他匯報(bào),并征求他的意見(jiàn)。

今年剛剛接任Brooks Running公司首席執(zhí)行官的丹·謝里登表示:“格雷格每天要接觸更多事務(wù)。因此他的觀(guān)點(diǎn)很有價(jià)值。他的才智對(duì)我們所有人來(lái)說(shuō)非常難得,值得我們借鑒。”他指出,阿貝爾為人謙遜,對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)充滿(mǎn)了好奇心,而且會(huì)提出刁鉆的問(wèn)題。

時(shí)思糖果(See’s Candies)的首席執(zhí)行官帕特·伊根補(bǔ)充道,阿貝爾體現(xiàn)了伯克希爾-哈撒韋的核心價(jià)值觀(guān),這家公司注重誠(chéng)信、關(guān)懷客戶(hù)和增強(qiáng)品牌,同時(shí)賦予子公司獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)的自由。

地板業(yè)巨頭Shaw Industries的首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·鮑科姆說(shuō):“他真的希望我們了解我們的公司,理解各種參數(shù),并管理好公司的日常運(yùn)營(yíng)。因此我感覺(jué)我擁有完全的自由,但自由伴隨著責(zé)任。”

參加會(huì)議的股東們?nèi)匀怀錆M(mǎn)信心。除了聽(tīng)巴菲特和阿貝爾演講,他們還花了幾個(gè)小時(shí)在伯克希爾-哈撒韋子公司設(shè)立的攤位上購(gòu)物,并與高管們交流。有些人甚至有機(jī)會(huì)與阿貝爾自拍,只是巴菲特沒(méi)有在展廳內(nèi)公開(kāi)露面。

第二次從弗吉尼亞州里士滿(mǎn)前往奧馬哈的邁克爾·格里扎德表示:“我認(rèn)為他們不會(huì)有問(wèn)題。他們有得力的助手,而且我們認(rèn)為他們有良好的文化。”

斯密德稱(chēng),即便世界上有史以來(lái)最偉大的投資者之一巴菲特,除了價(jià)值1,350億美元的蘋(píng)果(Apple)股份外,最近也很難找到可以讓伯克希爾-哈撒韋有所作為的好投資對(duì)象。雖然今年公司減少了對(duì)蘋(píng)果的持股,但對(duì)蘋(píng)果的投資依然是公司最大手筆的投資。

無(wú)論阿爾巴作為投資者有多優(yōu)秀,他都很難找到足夠大的交易,以增加伯克希爾-哈撒韋的收益。公司第一季度的收益下滑至接近130億美元。這個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)正是巴菲特警告投資者不要期待伯克希爾-哈撒韋能夠重現(xiàn)“驚人業(yè)績(jī)”的主要原因。

但目前,巴菲特已經(jīng)表明,阿貝爾或許不需要在短期內(nèi)接班,因?yàn)榘头铺厝耘f狀態(tài)良好,而且盡管他在5月4日承認(rèn)自己的精力大不如前,他一直說(shuō)自己沒(méi)有退休計(jì)劃。市場(chǎng)研究公司CFRA Research的分析師凱西·塞弗特對(duì)巴菲特的干勁記憶深刻。

塞弗特說(shuō):“從巴菲特在這次會(huì)議上的表現(xiàn),我沒(méi)有看到任何令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)或困擾的地方。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

今年的伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)股東大會(huì),為股東們提供了一次最佳的機(jī)會(huì),讓他們可以聆聽(tīng)沃倫·巴菲特的未來(lái)接班人的見(jiàn)解。但公司的首席執(zhí)行官巴菲特于5月4日首次表示,格雷格·阿貝爾在接班后還將負(fù)責(zé)公司的投資決策,這讓股東們對(duì)他的接班人計(jì)劃產(chǎn)生了新的質(zhì)疑。

阿貝爾全天與巴菲特同臺(tái),展示了他在直接領(lǐng)導(dǎo)多年的公用事業(yè)部門(mén)積累的淵博知識(shí),并深入探討了伯克希爾-哈撒韋的鐵路業(yè)務(wù)和潛在收購(gòu)項(xiàng)目。93歲的億萬(wàn)富翁巴菲特則向投資者證明,他依舊頭腦清晰。

阿貝爾指出,太平洋電力公司(PacifiCorp)和其他公用事業(yè)公司的員工長(zhǎng)期專(zhuān)注于保證電力不間斷供應(yīng),這些公司需要進(jìn)行重大文化轉(zhuǎn)變,考慮當(dāng)輸電線(xiàn)路引發(fā)野火的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過(guò)大時(shí)切斷供電。他還表示,伯靈頓北方圣達(dá)菲鐵路公司(BNSF)在公布令人失望的業(yè)績(jī)之后,正在努力“優(yōu)化我們的成本結(jié)構(gòu)”。

對(duì)于在奧馬哈會(huì)場(chǎng)聽(tīng)兩人演講的數(shù)千人來(lái)說(shuō),在2023年秋天公司副董事長(zhǎng)查理·芒格去世之后,接班人顯然成為許多人最關(guān)注的議題。巴菲特、阿貝爾和保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的另外一位高管阿吉塔·賈恩安慰投資者,按照賈恩的說(shuō)法,伯克希爾-哈撒韋的董事會(huì)花費(fèi)了大量時(shí)間,專(zhuān)心解決“在我被卡車(chē)撞到之后公司運(yùn)營(yíng)可能出現(xiàn)的情況”。為三人中的任何一個(gè)人找到合適的替代者都至關(guān)重要。

巴菲特之前曾經(jīng)表示,在阿貝爾擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官之后,投資經(jīng)理泰德·韋施勒和托德·庫(kù)姆斯將負(fù)責(zé)伯克希爾-哈撒韋龐大的投資組合。庫(kù)姆斯同時(shí)還擔(dān)任美國(guó)政府員工保險(xiǎn)公司(Geico)的首席執(zhí)行官。但巴菲特在5月4日稱(chēng),他改變了想法,“我了解格雷格,我會(huì)把資本配置留給格雷格來(lái)負(fù)責(zé)。”

巴菲特還表示,這是因?yàn)榘⒇悹柗浅J煜す镜臉I(yè)務(wù),而且也了解股票。

但愛(ài)德華·瓊斯公司(Edward Jones)的分析師詹姆斯·沙納漢指出,一家好公司不一定能夠成為一只好股票,除非你可以把握好時(shí)機(jī)和倉(cāng)位規(guī)模,這是一門(mén)藝術(shù)。

沙納漢說(shuō):“我認(rèn)為選股很難。我并不認(rèn)為有人從最開(kāi)始就擅長(zhǎng)選股。”

阿貝爾在負(fù)責(zé)伯克希爾-哈撒韋公用事業(yè)部門(mén)的十年間,確實(shí)曾經(jīng)主持過(guò)數(shù)十億美元的交易,包括收購(gòu)NV Energy和AltaLink,但他從來(lái)沒(méi)有選股經(jīng)驗(yàn)。韋施勒和庫(kù)姆斯或許能夠幫助阿貝爾選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)機(jī),并在股市尋找機(jī)會(huì),但巴菲特在5月4日并沒(méi)有這樣說(shuō)。

阿貝爾向股東保證:“我們將繼續(xù)遵守目前所采用的資本配置原則。”

斯密德資本管理公司(Smead Capital Management)的科爾·斯密德稱(chēng):“這會(huì)讓你對(duì)后巴菲特時(shí)代的信心增加還是打折扣?我想說(shuō)這會(huì)讓你的信心大打折扣,這不只是因?yàn)檫@是更壞的情況,而是因?yàn)楹蜻x人的篩選過(guò)程并不透明,也沒(méi)有清晰地對(duì)公眾說(shuō)明。你會(huì)開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑,還有哪些方面會(huì)發(fā)生變化?”

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),阿貝爾獲得了伯克希爾-哈撒韋旗下許多非保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的首席執(zhí)行官們的信任,他們遇到任何挑戰(zhàn)時(shí)都會(huì)向他匯報(bào),并征求他的意見(jiàn)。

今年剛剛接任Brooks Running公司首席執(zhí)行官的丹·謝里登表示:“格雷格每天要接觸更多事務(wù)。因此他的觀(guān)點(diǎn)很有價(jià)值。他的才智對(duì)我們所有人來(lái)說(shuō)非常難得,值得我們借鑒。”他指出,阿貝爾為人謙遜,對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)充滿(mǎn)了好奇心,而且會(huì)提出刁鉆的問(wèn)題。

時(shí)思糖果(See’s Candies)的首席執(zhí)行官帕特·伊根補(bǔ)充道,阿貝爾體現(xiàn)了伯克希爾-哈撒韋的核心價(jià)值觀(guān),這家公司注重誠(chéng)信、關(guān)懷客戶(hù)和增強(qiáng)品牌,同時(shí)賦予子公司獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng)的自由。

地板業(yè)巨頭Shaw Industries的首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·鮑科姆說(shuō):“他真的希望我們了解我們的公司,理解各種參數(shù),并管理好公司的日常運(yùn)營(yíng)。因此我感覺(jué)我擁有完全的自由,但自由伴隨著責(zé)任。”

參加會(huì)議的股東們?nèi)匀怀錆M(mǎn)信心。除了聽(tīng)巴菲特和阿貝爾演講,他們還花了幾個(gè)小時(shí)在伯克希爾-哈撒韋子公司設(shè)立的攤位上購(gòu)物,并與高管們交流。有些人甚至有機(jī)會(huì)與阿貝爾自拍,只是巴菲特沒(méi)有在展廳內(nèi)公開(kāi)露面。

第二次從弗吉尼亞州里士滿(mǎn)前往奧馬哈的邁克爾·格里扎德表示:“我認(rèn)為他們不會(huì)有問(wèn)題。他們有得力的助手,而且我們認(rèn)為他們有良好的文化。”

斯密德稱(chēng),即便世界上有史以來(lái)最偉大的投資者之一巴菲特,除了價(jià)值1,350億美元的蘋(píng)果(Apple)股份外,最近也很難找到可以讓伯克希爾-哈撒韋有所作為的好投資對(duì)象。雖然今年公司減少了對(duì)蘋(píng)果的持股,但對(duì)蘋(píng)果的投資依然是公司最大手筆的投資。

無(wú)論阿爾巴作為投資者有多優(yōu)秀,他都很難找到足夠大的交易,以增加伯克希爾-哈撒韋的收益。公司第一季度的收益下滑至接近130億美元。這個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)正是巴菲特警告投資者不要期待伯克希爾-哈撒韋能夠重現(xiàn)“驚人業(yè)績(jī)”的主要原因。

但目前,巴菲特已經(jīng)表明,阿貝爾或許不需要在短期內(nèi)接班,因?yàn)榘头铺厝耘f狀態(tài)良好,而且盡管他在5月4日承認(rèn)自己的精力大不如前,他一直說(shuō)自己沒(méi)有退休計(jì)劃。市場(chǎng)研究公司CFRA Research的分析師凱西·塞弗特對(duì)巴菲特的干勁記憶深刻。

塞弗特說(shuō):“從巴菲特在這次會(huì)議上的表現(xiàn),我沒(méi)有看到任何令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)或困擾的地方。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

This year’s Berkshire Hathaway meeting gave shareholders their best chance yet to hear from the man who will one day take over as CEO when Warren Buffett is gone, but Buffett said for the first time on May 4 that Greg Abel should also take responsibility for the company’s investments after he takes over, raising new questions about the succession plan.

Abel put his encyclopedic knowledge of the utility business that he led directly for years on display and delved into railroad operations and potential acquisitions that Berkshire pursued while sharing the stage with Buffett all day. For his part, the 93-year-old billionaire showed investors he is still sharp.

Abel pointed out that it required a major culture shift to get workers at PacifiCorp and the other utilities, who have long focused all their energy on keeping the lights on, to think about shutting the power down at times when the risk that their power lines could spark wildfires is too great. He also said BNSF railroad is working on getting “our cost structure right” after delivering disappointing results.

Succession was clearly top of mind for many of the thousands of people who filled an Omaha arena to listen to the two men after last fall’s death of Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. Buffett, Abel and Ajit Jain, Berkshire’s other top executive who oversees the company’s insurers, reassured investors that Berkshire’s board spends plenty of time focused on “what would happen to the operation if I get hit by a truck,” as Jain put it. Finding the right replacement for any of the three of them will be important.

Previously, Buffett had said that when Abel becomes CEO, investment managers Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, who’s also taken on the responsibility of being Geico’s CEO, would handle Berkshire’s massive portfolio. But Buffett said on May 4 that his thinking has evolved, and that “I would probably, knowing Greg, I would leave the capital allocation to Greg.”

And Buffett said because Abel understands businesses so well, he also understands stocks.

But Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan said a good business doesn’t always make a good stock unless you get the timing and position size right, and there is an art to that.

“I think stock picking is hard. I don’t think it’s something you can just start doing and be good at it,” Shanahan said.

Abel does have a history of making multibillion-dollar deals when he was the head of Berkshire’s utility unit for a decade, including the acquisitions of NV Energy and AltaLink, but he’s never been a stock picker. Weschler and Combs might be able to help Abel get the timing right and find opportunities in the stock market, but Buffett didn’t say that on May 4.

Abel just reassured shareholders that “the capital allocation principles that we use today will be maintained.”

“Does that give you more or less confidence post-Buffett? I would say it’s got to give you less — not because it’s a worse circumstance — but because it hasn’t been very transparent and communicated that clearly. You’ve got to start asking, well, what else is going to change?” said Cole Smead with Smead Capital Management.

Abel definitely has the confidence of the CEOs at all of Berkshire’s many varied noninsurance businesses who report to him and ask his advice on any challenges they are facing.

“Greg sees so much more than I do on a daily basis. So his perspective is valued, and his wisdom is something that is such a luxury for all of us to be able to tap into,” said Dan Sheridan, who just became CEO of Brooks Running this year after his predecessor retired. He said Abel is always humble and curious about the business, even while asking challenging questions.

See’s Candies CEO Pat Egan added that Abel reflects all of Berkshire’s core values, with the company’s emphasis on integrity, taking care of customers and strengthening brands, while still giving Berkshire’s subsidiaries the freedom to operate independently.

“He really expects us to know our business, understand the parameters, and to run our business on a day to day basis,” said Tim Baucom, CEO of flooring giant Shaw Industries. “So I feel like I have all the freedom of the world, but with freedom comes responsibility.”

The shareholders who attended the meeting and spent hours shopping and talking with executives at the booths Berkshire subsidiaries set up when they weren’t listening to Buffett and Abel remain confident. Some of them even got the chance to take selfies with Abel, though Buffett no longer tours the exhibit hall in public.

“I think they’ll be fine,” said Michael Grizzard, who made the trip to Omaha from Richmond, Virginia, for the second time. “They’re in good hands, and I think they have a good culture.”

Smead said even Buffett, who is easily one of the greatest investors the world has ever seen, has been having a hard time lately finding good investments big enough to make a difference at Berkshire except for the $135 billion Apple stake that remains its largest investment even after some trimming this year.

So no matter how good an investor Abel is, he will have a hard time finding deals big enough to provide a meaningful boost to Berkshire’s earnings that approached $13 billion in a down first quarter. That challenge is a big part of why Buffett has warned investors not to expect any of the “eye-popping performance” of Berkshire’s past.

But for now, Buffett showed that Abel may not need to take over anytime soon because he looked good and he has long said he has no plans to retire, even if he acknowledged on May 4 that he doesn’t have the same energy he used to. CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert came away impressed with his stamina.

“There wasn’t anything in that performance that I found worrisome or troubling,” Seifert said.

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