房價在過去十年中翻了一番,僅在過去五年就上漲了近50%。擁有一套住房的成本創歷史新高。根據Redfin委托進行的一項調查,這意味著很多人如果現在買房,也負擔不起高房價。
房主們被問到:“如果你想買房,你認為自己現在能買得起你所在社區的類似房屋嗎?”近40%的受訪者表示,他們“可能”或“絕對”買不起。大多數接受調查的房主(約占80%)已經在他們的房子里住了至少5到10年。分析稱:“這意味著,大多數受訪者在購房后,都經歷了所在社區的房價飆升。”
調查發現:“按世代劃分,如果嬰兒潮一代現在買房,最不可能負擔得起現在的房子。”近一半(45%)的嬰兒潮一代表示,他們現在買不起所在社區的房子。雖然他們可能不喜歡聽到這樣的言論,但所有人都喜歡談論嬰兒潮一代是如何以微乎其微的價格買下自己的房子,并看著它們升值的。站在他們的立場,嬰兒潮一代被迫應對高得多的抵押貸款利率,而且當時的房價對他們來說也不低。
無論如何,在疫情爆發和隨之而來的房地產熱潮之前,房價就已經很高了,但那時候房價才真正飆升。從那以后,房價就沒有出現過實質性下跌。盡管還有其他原因:在疫情期間,抵押貸款利率比以往任何時候都低(這也是房地產熱潮的部分原因),但隨著美聯儲提高利率以抑制通貨膨脹,抵押貸款利率飆升。現在,30年期固定抵押貸款平均利率為7.43%,全美房屋銷售價格中位數為41.77萬美元。這比人們習以為常的利率要高得多,而且抵押貸款利率引發了鎖定效應:為什么要出售利率低于3%的房子來換利率高于7%的房子呢?
分析稱:“事實上,購買面積更大、條件更好的房子,甚至是類似的房子,對很多美國人來說都是遙不可及的,這是抵押貸款利率鎖定效應背后的驅動力。幾乎所有房主的抵押貸款利率都低于目前的水平,導致待售房屋短缺。”
但房地產市場是復雜的。僅僅說高房價不利是遠遠不夠的,原因是高房價對誰不利呢?嗯,任何想購房的人。但高房價對已經擁有住房的人來說并不是壞事。另外,由于抵押貸款利率上升,人們不再出售自己的房子,但讓人們繼續住在自己的房子里比強迫他們出售要好得多(Redfin首席執行官官格倫·凱爾曼最近在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,這是30年期抵押貸款的后遺癥)。
Redfin資深經濟學家伊利亞·德拉坎帕表示:“房價上漲是一把雙刃劍。一方面,已經擁有住房的美國人從房價上漲中獲益,他們認為自己很幸運,在自己還能負擔得起的時候就進入了房地產市場。”
他繼續說道:“另一方面,價格上漲使很多想要搬家的人對購買新房望而卻步,甚至覺得這一前景無法實現。房價已經漲得足夠高,即使考慮到通貨膨脹因素,一套類似地理位置的房子的房價也要比某人已經擁有的房子房價高得多。再加上抵押貸款利率上升,搬到面積更大、條件更好的房子會更加昂貴,甚至可能遙不可及。”
如果你今天不得不買房,即使買不起現在的房子也比完全負擔不起要好。不過,這也說明住房負擔能力變得有多低。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
房價在過去十年中翻了一番,僅在過去五年就上漲了近50%。擁有一套住房的成本創歷史新高。根據Redfin委托進行的一項調查,這意味著很多人如果現在買房,也負擔不起高房價。
房主們被問到:“如果你想買房,你認為自己現在能買得起你所在社區的類似房屋嗎?”近40%的受訪者表示,他們“可能”或“絕對”買不起。大多數接受調查的房主(約占80%)已經在他們的房子里住了至少5到10年。分析稱:“這意味著,大多數受訪者在購房后,都經歷了所在社區的房價飆升。”
調查發現:“按世代劃分,如果嬰兒潮一代現在買房,最不可能負擔得起現在的房子。”近一半(45%)的嬰兒潮一代表示,他們現在買不起所在社區的房子。雖然他們可能不喜歡聽到這樣的言論,但所有人都喜歡談論嬰兒潮一代是如何以微乎其微的價格買下自己的房子,并看著它們升值的。站在他們的立場,嬰兒潮一代被迫應對高得多的抵押貸款利率,而且當時的房價對他們來說也不低。
無論如何,在疫情爆發和隨之而來的房地產熱潮之前,房價就已經很高了,但那時候房價才真正飆升。從那以后,房價就沒有出現過實質性下跌。盡管還有其他原因:在疫情期間,抵押貸款利率比以往任何時候都低(這也是房地產熱潮的部分原因),但隨著美聯儲提高利率以抑制通貨膨脹,抵押貸款利率飆升。現在,30年期固定抵押貸款平均利率為7.43%,全美房屋銷售價格中位數為41.77萬美元。這比人們習以為常的利率要高得多,而且抵押貸款利率引發了鎖定效應:為什么要出售利率低于3%的房子來換利率高于7%的房子呢?
分析稱:“事實上,購買面積更大、條件更好的房子,甚至是類似的房子,對很多美國人來說都是遙不可及的,這是抵押貸款利率鎖定效應背后的驅動力。幾乎所有房主的抵押貸款利率都低于目前的水平,導致待售房屋短缺。”
但房地產市場是復雜的。僅僅說高房價不利是遠遠不夠的,原因是高房價對誰不利呢?嗯,任何想購房的人。但高房價對已經擁有住房的人來說并不是壞事。另外,由于抵押貸款利率上升,人們不再出售自己的房子,但讓人們繼續住在自己的房子里比強迫他們出售要好得多(Redfin首席執行官官格倫·凱爾曼最近在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,這是30年期抵押貸款的后遺癥)。
Redfin資深經濟學家伊利亞·德拉坎帕表示:“房價上漲是一把雙刃劍。一方面,已經擁有住房的美國人從房價上漲中獲益,他們認為自己很幸運,在自己還能負擔得起的時候就進入了房地產市場。”
他繼續說道:“另一方面,價格上漲使很多想要搬家的人對購買新房望而卻步,甚至覺得這一前景無法實現。房價已經漲得足夠高,即使考慮到通貨膨脹因素,一套類似地理位置的房子的房價也要比某人已經擁有的房子房價高得多。再加上抵押貸款利率上升,搬到面積更大、條件更好的房子會更加昂貴,甚至可能遙不可及。”
如果你今天不得不買房,即使買不起現在的房子也比完全負擔不起要好。不過,這也說明住房負擔能力變得有多低。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Home prices have doubled over the past decade, rising almost 50% in the past five years alone. And the cost of owning a home is the highest on record. This means a lot of people wouldn’t be able to afford their current home if they had to buy it today, according to a Redfin-commissioned survey.
Homeowners were asked, “If you were looking to purchase a home, do you think you could afford a home like yours in your neighborhood today?” And almost 40% of respondents said they “probably” or “definitely” couldn’t. Most homeowners who responded to the survey (roughly 80%) have lived in their home for at least five to 10 years. “That means the majority of respondents have seen housing prices in their neighborhood skyrocket since they purchased their home,” the analysis said.
“Broken down by generation, baby boomers are least likely to be able to afford their current home if they were to buy it today,” the survey found. Almost half, or 45%, of baby boomers said they couldn’t afford a home in their neighborhood today. And while they may not like to hear it, everyone loves to talk about how baby boomers bought their homes for what feels like next to nothing and watched them appreciate in value. In their defense, boomers had to deal with much higher mortgage rates, and home prices didn’t feel like nothing to them at the time.
Either way, home prices were already high before the pandemic and its corresponding housing boom—but that’s when prices really skyrocketed. They haven’t fallen meaningfully since. Although there’s more to it: Mortgage rates were lower than they’d ever been during the pandemic (which is part of the reason we had a housing boom), but they shot up as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to tame inflation. Now, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.43%, and the median sales price for homes throughout the country is $417,700. That’s a lot more than people are used to, and on the mortgage-rate side, it’s triggered the lock-in effect—why sell your home with a rate below 3% for one that’s above 7%?
“The fact that buying a bigger, better home—or even a similar home—is financially out of reach for so many Americans is the driving force behind the mortgage-rate lock-in effect,” the analysis said. “Nearly all homeowners have a mortgage rate below today’s level, contributing to a shortage of homes for sale.”
But the housing world is complicated. It’s never enough to simply say high home prices are bad—because who are they bad for? Well, anyone who wants to buy a home. But high home prices aren’t bad for people who already own a home. Separately, people stopped selling their homes because of higher mortgage rates, but keeping people in their homes is far better than forcing them to sell (an artifact of 30-year mortgages, as Redfin’s chief executive, Glenn Kelman, recently put it in an interview with Fortune).
“Rising home prices are a double-edged sword,” Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa said. “On the one hand, Americans who already own homes benefit from rising values, and they can consider themselves lucky they broke into the housing market while they could still afford it.”
He continued: “On the other hand, price appreciation makes the prospect of buying a new home daunting or even impossible for many people who want to move. Prices have risen enough that a similar home and location would be much pricier than a home someone already owns—even accounting for inflation. Add elevated mortgage rates to the equation, and moving up to a bigger, better home is even more costly and perhaps out of reach.”
Not being able to afford your current home if you had to buy it today is better than not being able to afford a home at all. Still, it goes to show how unaffordable housing has become.