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美國高抵押貸款利率高企,買房的和賣房的都受影響

ALENA BOTROS
2024-04-17

房地產市場沒有贏家。

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當抵押貸款利率從曾經的史上最低點飆升至20年新高時,會發生什么?人們停止賣房。有人停止買房。

抵押貸款利率較8.03%的最高點有所下降,但依舊遠高于刺激疫情期間房地產市場繁榮的2%和3%的水平。最新數據顯示,當前平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為7.44%。上周,在高于預期的通脹報告出爐后,抵押貸款利率升至近五個月的最高水平。因此,更多觀望中的購房人正在為更長時間更高利率的情況做準備,他們預計美聯儲會推遲降息,而降息會間接降低房貸成本。那么賣房人感受如何?

他們的心態有些復雜。但Realtor. com的高級經濟研究分析師漢納·瓊斯引用最新的賣房人調查結果稱,最近許多賣房人后悔沒有“抓住房地產市場更火爆的機會”,更快賣掉自己的房子。研究顯示,79%的受訪者有這種想法;2022年第四季度,房價達到史上最高點。有超過80%的受訪者表示,已經考慮在一至三年內賣房。他們正在討論,在抵押貸款利率更高的時候賣房,是否是在財務上合理的選擇。

瓊斯寫道:“事實上,79%的潛在賣房人感覺低利率導致他們的房子‘被鎖定’。盡管這個比例比去年低了三個百分點,但目前的抵押貸款利率影響了賣房人的情緒。”

約29%“被鎖定的”潛在賣房人因為個人原因,需要盡快賣房(可能是需要更多或更少空間;或者因為結婚、生子、離婚等人生大事或職業相關問題)。但有一半潛在賣房人計劃等待更低利率。約有80%的潛在賣房人預計買新房的抵押貸款利率,將高于當前的利率。這種狀況背后的原因不難想象。Realtor.com網站估算普通未償還抵押貸款利率低于4%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾估計,98%的借款人享受到了低于市場水平的抵押貸款利率。這其中并沒有考慮到沒有抵押貸款的美國人。

為了便于理解,我們可以考慮在不同利率下,同一價格的房屋的月供變化。假設一套售價600,000美元的房子,首付20%,這意味著按3%的抵押貸款利率貸款480,000美元,月供略高于2,000美元(不含稅費或保險)。在相同的情況下,假設抵押貸款利率為7%,月供將接近3,200美元。由于貸款年限長達數年,因此會有巨大的差距。

但令賣房人不安的不只是抵押貸款利率。畢竟,總體而言,當前的房地產市場與疫情期間相比已經大幅降溫(但這并沒有考慮到區域差異:有些市場依舊非常火爆)。有15%的賣房人期待出價高于要價,比去年減少了一半。

瓊斯寫道:“相較于過去幾年房地產市場有所降溫,這意味著有15%的賣房人預計在一周內會收到購房人的出價,這個比例不到2023年(37%)的一半,此外有15%的賣房人期待購房人會愿意放棄房屋檢查和評估等條件,以達成交易,這個比例也遠低于2023年的35%。”

顯然,盡管賣房人依舊占據上風,但他們調整了預期。但潛在賣房人期待的平均售價超過460,000美元。這接近于全美中位數房屋售價約418,000美元。有三分之一賣房人期待的售價為400,000至500,000美元。四分之一賣房人期待的售價為250,000至400,000美元;另外四分之一期待的售價為500,000至750,000美元。

這對于現房銷售意味著什么?去年,由于人們不愿意賣房,現房銷量降至近三十年最低水平,以至于美國總統喬·拜登都承認,沒有人想要賣房。最新可用數據顯示,二月,現房銷量環比上漲,但同比下滑。目前無法確定市場走向。但Realtor.com預測,“今年抵押貸款利率會小幅下降,而有限的房屋庫存意味著購房人渴望有新的選擇,對于一些賣房人來說,2024年可能是進入市場的好時機。”(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

當抵押貸款利率從曾經的史上最低點飆升至20年新高時,會發生什么?人們停止賣房。有人停止買房。

抵押貸款利率較8.03%的最高點有所下降,但依舊遠高于刺激疫情期間房地產市場繁榮的2%和3%的水平。最新數據顯示,當前平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為7.44%。上周,在高于預期的通脹報告出爐后,抵押貸款利率升至近五個月的最高水平。因此,更多觀望中的購房人正在為更長時間更高利率的情況做準備,他們預計美聯儲會推遲降息,而降息會間接降低房貸成本。那么賣房人感受如何?

他們的心態有些復雜。但Realtor. com的高級經濟研究分析師漢納·瓊斯引用最新的賣房人調查結果稱,最近許多賣房人后悔沒有“抓住房地產市場更火爆的機會”,更快賣掉自己的房子。研究顯示,79%的受訪者有這種想法;2022年第四季度,房價達到史上最高點。有超過80%的受訪者表示,已經考慮在一至三年內賣房。他們正在討論,在抵押貸款利率更高的時候賣房,是否是在財務上合理的選擇。

瓊斯寫道:“事實上,79%的潛在賣房人感覺低利率導致他們的房子‘被鎖定’。盡管這個比例比去年低了三個百分點,但目前的抵押貸款利率影響了賣房人的情緒。”

約29%“被鎖定的”潛在賣房人因為個人原因,需要盡快賣房(可能是需要更多或更少空間;或者因為結婚、生子、離婚等人生大事或職業相關問題)。但有一半潛在賣房人計劃等待更低利率。約有80%的潛在賣房人預計買新房的抵押貸款利率,將高于當前的利率。這種狀況背后的原因不難想象。Realtor.com網站估算普通未償還抵押貸款利率低于4%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾估計,98%的借款人享受到了低于市場水平的抵押貸款利率。這其中并沒有考慮到沒有抵押貸款的美國人。

為了便于理解,我們可以考慮在不同利率下,同一價格的房屋的月供變化。假設一套售價600,000美元的房子,首付20%,這意味著按3%的抵押貸款利率貸款480,000美元,月供略高于2,000美元(不含稅費或保險)。在相同的情況下,假設抵押貸款利率為7%,月供將接近3,200美元。由于貸款年限長達數年,因此會有巨大的差距。

但令賣房人不安的不只是抵押貸款利率。畢竟,總體而言,當前的房地產市場與疫情期間相比已經大幅降溫(但這并沒有考慮到區域差異:有些市場依舊非常火爆)。有15%的賣房人期待出價高于要價,比去年減少了一半。

瓊斯寫道:“相較于過去幾年房地產市場有所降溫,這意味著有15%的賣房人預計在一周內會收到購房人的出價,這個比例不到2023年(37%)的一半,此外有15%的賣房人期待購房人會愿意放棄房屋檢查和評估等條件,以達成交易,這個比例也遠低于2023年的35%。”

顯然,盡管賣房人依舊占據上風,但他們調整了預期。但潛在賣房人期待的平均售價超過460,000美元。這接近于全美中位數房屋售價約418,000美元。有三分之一賣房人期待的售價為400,000至500,000美元。四分之一賣房人期待的售價為250,000至400,000美元;另外四分之一期待的售價為500,000至750,000美元。

這對于現房銷售意味著什么?去年,由于人們不愿意賣房,現房銷量降至近三十年最低水平,以至于美國總統喬·拜登都承認,沒有人想要賣房。最新可用數據顯示,二月,現房銷量環比上漲,但同比下滑。目前無法確定市場走向。但Realtor.com預測,“今年抵押貸款利率會小幅下降,而有限的房屋庫存意味著購房人渴望有新的選擇,對于一些賣房人來說,2024年可能是進入市場的好時機。”(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

What happens when mortgage rates that were once at historical lows shoot up to 20-year highs? People stop selling their homes. And some stop buying.

Mortgage rates have come down from their peak of 8.03%, but they’re still a far cry away from 2% and 3% rates that fueled the pandemic housing boom. The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.44%, as of the latest reading. Last week, after a hotter than expected inflation report, mortgage rates hit their highest level in almost five months. So more sidelined homebuyers are bracing for a higher-for-longer situation, in anticipation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts that would indirectly lower the cost of a home loan. But how are sellers feeling?

It’s a mixed bag. But we know a lot of recent sellers wish they had sold their homes sooner so they could have “taken advantage of a hotter housing market,” Realtor.com’s senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones wrote, referring to a new sellers survey. The study shows that 79% of respondents feel that way; home prices were at their highest in the fourth quarter of 2022. Whereas more than 80% said they’ve been thinking about selling their home in maybe one to three years. They’re debating whether it makes financial sense to sell in a time of elevated mortgage rates.

“In fact, 79% of potential sellers feel locked in to their home due to a low interest rate,” Jones wrote. “Though the share of ‘locked in’ owners is three percentage points lower than last year, today’s mortgage rates are taking a toll on seller sentiment.”

Roughly 29% of “locked-in,” would-be sellers need to sell soon for personal reasons (whether that be a need for more or less space; or a major life event such as marriage, kids, divorce, or career-related issues). But half are planning to wait for lower rates, the survey found. And about eight in 10 expect their mortgage rate on their new home to be higher than their present situation. It’s not hard to imagine why. Realtor.com puts the typical outstanding mortgage at less than 4%; at one point, Goldman Sachs estimated 98% of borrowers had a below-market mortgage rate. And none of that accounts for the share of Americans who are simply mortgage-free.

To put it in perspective, consider the change in a monthly mortgage payment on the same-priced house but at different rates. Assuming 20% down on a $600,000 home, meaning a loan of $480,000 with a 3% mortgage rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be a little over $2,000 (that’s not including taxes or insurance). With the same exact circumstances but a 7% mortgage rate, the monthly payment would be close to $3,200. That’s a big difference, particularly in a matter of years.

But it’s not just mortgage rates that have sellers feeling uneasy. After all, it’s generally a much cooler housing market than that of the pandemic (although that doesn’t take into account regional variation: Some markets are very hot). Still, only 15% of sellers expect offers over the asking price; last year, it was double that.

“A less frenzied market from years past means 15% expect to have an offer within a week, less than half of the 2023 share (37%), and 15% expect buyers to be willing to forgo contingencies like inspections and appraisals to make the deal, down from 35% in 2023,” Jones wrote.

Clearly, sellers have adjusted their expectations, even if they still seem to have the upper hand. Nevertheless, would-be sellers are hoping to sell their homes for more than $460,000 on average. That’s not far from the median sales price for homes sold in the country, which is about $418,000. Meanwhile, a third hope to sell for anywhere between $400,000 and $500,000. And a quarter want to sell their homes for $250,000 to $400,000; another quarter expect to sell in the $500,000 to $750,000 range.

So what does this all mean for existing home sales? They fell to their lowest point in almost three decades last year because people weren’t selling their homes—so much so that President Joe Biden practically admitted that nobody wants to sell their home. In February, sales were up on a monthly basis, but down on an annual basis, the latest available data shows. So it’s not clear where they’re headed. But according to Realtor.com, “mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly this year, and limited home inventory means buyers are eager for fresh options, which means 2024 could be a good time to hop into the market for some sellers.”

財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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