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美國人起來越買不起房子

SYDNEY LAKE
2023-10-25

一家研究公司表示,潛在購房者每年需要賺到11.4627萬美元才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起一套房。

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對那里的購房者來說,這是難以負(fù)擔(dān)的。圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

也許你不知道房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)變得多么難以負(fù)擔(dān)。根據(jù)Redfin的一份新報告,美國人如今需要有超過六位數(shù)的收入才能買得起一套中等價位的房子。可以說,這樣的收入比美國人的平均收入要高得多。

這家房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)和研究公司表示,潛在購房者每年需要賺到11.4627萬美元才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起一套房。該數(shù)字同比增長15%,為有史以來購房者需達(dá)到的最高年收入。這是一個問題,畢竟2022年美國的家庭收入中位數(shù)是7.458萬美元——離實現(xiàn)Redfin得出的目標(biāo)收入還差4萬美元。(Redfin的報告考慮了收入、平均月供和當(dāng)前的房貸利率。)

而這甚至還沒有考慮地區(qū)差異,換句話說,沒有考慮紐約市等以物價高著稱的市場。如果你想在哥譚市(紐約市的別稱)租一套公寓,大多數(shù)房東會要求你的年收入至少達(dá)到月租的40到45倍。

蘇富比International-Montecito的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人莫琳·麥克德穆特(Maureen McDermut)對《財富》雜志表示:“雖然在美國購買中等價位房屋所需的收入高于普遍美國家庭的平均收入,但目前在大多數(shù)市場上,租房和租公寓的成本其實更高。紐約、芝加哥和洛杉磯的房屋租金都出現(xiàn)了大幅上漲。”(麥克德穆特在洛杉磯從事了20年的商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)銷售職業(yè)。)

再者,麥克德穆特說,“實際上,從長遠(yuǎn)來看,租房的成本通常還會更高,因為它會帶來機(jī)會成本(租房者無法積累資產(chǎn)或財富)。”

“租房者和購房者均受到了影響”

這與你的工資(通常是稅前工資)和你在租賃市場上需要支付的現(xiàn)金之間的差距有關(guān)。例如,在2020年12月,紐約的潛在租房者每月需要賺取1萬美元以上(稅前),才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起當(dāng)時3100美元的中等租金。然而,時間快進(jìn)到今天,曼哈頓的平均月租在今年夏天創(chuàng)下了4400美元的歷史新高,這意味著租房者需要達(dá)到17.6萬美元(稅前)的年收入才有資格租房。

紐約房地產(chǎn)分析公司UrbanDigs的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人約翰·沃爾克普在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“這一發(fā)展軌跡與購房領(lǐng)域的趨勢同時出現(xiàn),突顯了一個更廣泛的主題:住房成本日益增長。租金與房價一樣呈上升趨勢,這顯現(xiàn)出租房者和購房者均受到了影響。”

當(dāng)然,應(yīng)該注意的是,像紐約這類城市的案例是租金的極端例子。Redfin的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)麗爾·費爾韋瑟告訴《財富》雜志,從月供的角度來看,整體而言,“在大多數(shù)大都市地區(qū),租房都要比貸款買房更實惠。”事實上,按照Redfin的定義,只有在四個主要的美國市場中,買房比租房更便宜:底特律、費城、克利夫蘭和休斯敦。

住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力的壓力主要是由房貸利率(周三剛剛達(dá)到8%)和房價(今年迄今已上漲5%)的上漲造成的。

事實上,隨著房貸利率突破7%和房價今年迄今上漲逾5%,美國的住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)達(dá)到本世紀(jì)的最低水平。Redfin的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,購房者的月供已創(chuàng)下歷史新高,超過2800美元。

然而,截至7月,有四分之一的美國房主每月需要支付超過3000美元的房貸,這使得他們中的許多人成為了“房奴”。與此同時,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)公司CEIC的數(shù)據(jù),2023年7月美國人的平均月收入僅為4600美元。這意味著一些房主可能要將薪水的60%以上用于償還房貸——遠(yuǎn)高于他們可負(fù)擔(dān)的水平。費爾韋瑟表示:“購房者的‘住房支出不超過其收入的30%’,他們的月供才會被視為負(fù)擔(dān)得起。”

Redfin的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究主管Chen Zhao在一份聲明中表示:“在購房者的理想狀態(tài)中,房貸利率的上漲會推動住房需求和房價下降到足夠低的水平,可以彌補(bǔ)利息增加帶來的影響。但現(xiàn)在的情況并非如此。盡管新房源的數(shù)量略有上升,但由于房主不愿放棄較低的房貸利率,房屋庫存仍接近歷史低位,而這就推高了房價。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-劉嘉歡

也許你不知道房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)變得多么難以負(fù)擔(dān)。根據(jù)Redfin的一份新報告,美國人如今需要有超過六位數(shù)的收入才能買得起一套中等價位的房子。可以說,這樣的收入比美國人的平均收入要高得多。

這家房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)和研究公司表示,潛在購房者每年需要賺到11.4627萬美元才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起一套房。該數(shù)字同比增長15%,為有史以來購房者需達(dá)到的最高年收入。這是一個問題,畢竟2022年美國的家庭收入中位數(shù)是7.458萬美元——離實現(xiàn)Redfin得出的目標(biāo)收入還差4萬美元。(Redfin的報告考慮了收入、平均月供和當(dāng)前的房貸利率。)

而這甚至還沒有考慮地區(qū)差異,換句話說,沒有考慮紐約市等以物價高著稱的市場。如果你想在哥譚市(紐約市的別稱)租一套公寓,大多數(shù)房東會要求你的年收入至少達(dá)到月租的40到45倍。

蘇富比International-Montecito的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人莫琳·麥克德穆特(Maureen McDermut)對《財富》雜志表示:“雖然在美國購買中等價位房屋所需的收入高于普遍美國家庭的平均收入,但目前在大多數(shù)市場上,租房和租公寓的成本其實更高。紐約、芝加哥和洛杉磯的房屋租金都出現(xiàn)了大幅上漲。”(麥克德穆特在洛杉磯從事了20年的商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)銷售職業(yè)。)

再者,麥克德穆特說,“實際上,從長遠(yuǎn)來看,租房的成本通常還會更高,因為它會帶來機(jī)會成本(租房者無法積累資產(chǎn)或財富)。”

“租房者和購房者均受到了影響”

這與你的工資(通常是稅前工資)和你在租賃市場上需要支付的現(xiàn)金之間的差距有關(guān)。例如,在2020年12月,紐約的潛在租房者每月需要賺取1萬美元以上(稅前),才能負(fù)擔(dān)得起當(dāng)時3100美元的中等租金。然而,時間快進(jìn)到今天,曼哈頓的平均月租在今年夏天創(chuàng)下了4400美元的歷史新高,這意味著租房者需要達(dá)到17.6萬美元(稅前)的年收入才有資格租房。

紐約房地產(chǎn)分析公司UrbanDigs的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人約翰·沃爾克普在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“這一發(fā)展軌跡與購房領(lǐng)域的趨勢同時出現(xiàn),突顯了一個更廣泛的主題:住房成本日益增長。租金與房價一樣呈上升趨勢,這顯現(xiàn)出租房者和購房者均受到了影響。”

當(dāng)然,應(yīng)該注意的是,像紐約這類城市的案例是租金的極端例子。Redfin的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)麗爾·費爾韋瑟告訴《財富》雜志,從月供的角度來看,整體而言,“在大多數(shù)大都市地區(qū),租房都要比貸款買房更實惠。”事實上,按照Redfin的定義,只有在四個主要的美國市場中,買房比租房更便宜:底特律、費城、克利夫蘭和休斯敦。

住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力的壓力主要是由房貸利率(周三剛剛達(dá)到8%)和房價(今年迄今已上漲5%)的上漲造成的。

事實上,隨著房貸利率突破7%和房價今年迄今上漲逾5%,美國的住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)達(dá)到本世紀(jì)的最低水平。Redfin的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,購房者的月供已創(chuàng)下歷史新高,超過2800美元。

然而,截至7月,有四分之一的美國房主每月需要支付超過3000美元的房貸,這使得他們中的許多人成為了“房奴”。與此同時,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)公司CEIC的數(shù)據(jù),2023年7月美國人的平均月收入僅為4600美元。這意味著一些房主可能要將薪水的60%以上用于償還房貸——遠(yuǎn)高于他們可負(fù)擔(dān)的水平。費爾韋瑟表示:“購房者的‘住房支出不超過其收入的30%’,他們的月供才會被視為負(fù)擔(dān)得起。”

Redfin的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究主管Chen Zhao在一份聲明中表示:“在購房者的理想狀態(tài)中,房貸利率的上漲會推動住房需求和房價下降到足夠低的水平,可以彌補(bǔ)利息增加帶來的影響。但現(xiàn)在的情況并非如此。盡管新房源的數(shù)量略有上升,但由于房主不愿放棄較低的房貸利率,房屋庫存仍接近歷史低位,而這就推高了房價。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-劉嘉歡

Maybe you didn’t know just how unaffordable the housing market has gotten. Americans now need to earn more than six figures in order to purchase a median-priced home, according to calculations in a new Redfin report. That’s a lot more than the average American makes, to say the least.

A prospective homebuyer needs to make $114,627 to afford a home, the brokerage and real-estate research firm says. That’s a 15% year-over-year increase and the highest annual income on record to buy a home. This is a problem considering that median household income was $74,580 in 2022—about $40,000 shy of what’s needed to meet Redfin’s target. (Redfin’s reporting takes into account income, average monthly mortgage payments, and current mortgage rates.)

And this doesn’t even consider regional variation, or famously expensive markets such as New York City. Just to rent an apartment in Gotham, most landlords will require that your annual income equals at least 40 to 45 times the monthly rent.

“While the income needed to purchase a median-priced home in the U.S. is higher than the average income of most American households, it is now more expensive to rent homes and apartments in most markets,” Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Montecito, tells Fortune. “New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles have all seen dramatic increases in the price to rent a home.” (McDermut started her 20-year career selling commercial real estate in Los Angeles.)

Plus, “the reality is that renting will usually cost more in the long run, as it comes with the opportunity cost of not building equity or wealth,” McDermut says.

‘Renters and buyers alike are affected’

It has to do with the difference between how your salary looks (in most cases pretax) and how you need to come up with cold hard cash in the rental market. For instance, back in December 2020, prospective NYC renters needed to earn more than $10,000 (pretax) each month to meet the $3,100 median rent at the time. Fast forward to today, however, and average monthly rent in Manhattan hit an all-time high this summer at $4,400—meaning that renters would need to make a whopping $176,000 per year (pretax) to even be eligible to rent.

“This trajectory, while concurrent with what we’ve observed in the realm of homeownership, accentuates a broader theme: escalating housing costs,” John Walkup, co-founder of NYC real estate analytics company UrbanDigs, tells Fortune. “The fact that rental costs have followed a similar upward trend as home prices underscores that renters and buyers alike are affected.”

It’s important to consider, of course, that places like NYC are an extreme example of rent prices. When looking generally at buying versus renting from a monthly payment perspective, “renting is more affordable than borrowing to buy a home in most metro areas,” Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, tells Fortune. In fact, there are only four major markets, as defined by Redfin, where it’s cheaper to buy than to rent: Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Houston.

The strain on housing affordability is largely driven by mortgage rates, which just hit 8% on Wednesday, and rising home prices, which have increased 5% year-to-date.

Indeed, housing affordability is the worst it’s been this century, with mortgage rates exceeding 7% and home prices that are up 5% year-to-date. Monthly mortgage payments reached an all-time high of more than $2,800 per month, Redfin data shows.

But one-fourth of homeowners were paying more than $3,000 per month as of July, leaving many of them house-poor. Meanwhile, average U.S. monthly earnings in July 2023 were just $4,600, according to economic data firm CEIC. That means some homeowners could be spending more than 60% of their paychecks on their mortgage—much higher than what is considered affordable. A monthly mortgage payment is considered affordable if the homebuyer “spends no more than 30% of their income on housing,” Fairweather says.

“In a homebuyer’s ideal world, rising mortgage rates would push demand and home prices down enough to make up for high interest payments. But that’s not what’s happening now,” Chen Zhao, Redfin economics research lead, said in a statement. “Although new listings are ticking up slightly, inventory is still near record lows as homeowners hang onto their low mortgage rates—and that’s propping up prices.”

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