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歐洲奢侈品對投資者失去吸引力,股價創(chuàng)下 2020 年以來最大跌幅

PRARTHANA PRAKASH
2023-10-12

這個歐洲最賺錢的行業(yè)之一可能再次面臨壓力。

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圖為 2023 年 4 月,奢侈品集團(tuán) LVMH 旗下的一家路易威登專賣店。

在投資者對于市場從新冠時期的低迷中反彈的滿心期盼下,奢侈品股票在2023 年初的走勢有所抬頭,然而今天,這個歐洲最賺錢的行業(yè)之一可能再次面臨壓力。

據(jù)路透社周一報道,包括法國威酩軒集團(tuán)(LVMH)、意大利汽車制造商法拉利(Ferrari)和英國品牌巴寶莉(Burberry)等在內(nèi)的STOXX歐洲奢侈品10指數(shù)錄得2020年以來的最大季度跌幅。在一份關(guān)于9月指數(shù)新聞的報告中,STOXX指出,在從全球健康到電動汽車的各種主題指數(shù)中,奢侈品指數(shù)是 "表現(xiàn)最差的"。

奢侈品指數(shù)是STOXX作為歐洲全市場指數(shù)(STOXX Europe Total Market Index)的一個子集,近來遭受了經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的影響,包括通脹飆升、利率升高以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。

盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)股票策略主管彼得·加恩里(Peter Garnry)告訴路透社:”歐洲奢侈品股票近期的下跌反映了歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性,以及不甚明朗的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景。”該媒體指出,自 3 月底以來,這個由10 只股票組成的指數(shù)組的市值已經(jīng)縮水了約 1750 億美元。

從路威酩軒到開云集團(tuán)等奢侈品巨頭都將在未來幾周內(nèi)公布季度業(yè)績,以奢侈品為重點(diǎn)的這一指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)令人黯然神傷。

包括 STOXX 歐洲奢侈品 10 指數(shù)在內(nèi)的一些公司已經(jīng)敲響了警鐘,指出被抑制的消費(fèi)活動疊加經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩導(dǎo)致的需求低迷可能會威脅到奢侈品市場。例如,上個月,擁有卡地亞品牌的奢侈品控股公司歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)董事長約翰·魯珀(Johann Ruper)就表示,高通脹正在影響歐洲對奢侈品的需求。他的言論引發(fā)了市場上高達(dá) 250 億美元的奢侈品股票遭到拋售。

瑞銀分析師上周在《財富》雜志瀏覽的一份報告中寫道:“盡管最近投資者對(歐洲奢侈品)行業(yè)很感興趣,但大多數(shù)人還是會希望看到更清晰的2024展望,才會決定是否投資一些最優(yōu)質(zhì)的品牌。”

新冠期間的奢侈品庫存

新冠疫情爆發(fā)后,越來越多的人只能待在家里,無法像以前那樣到實體店購物,使奢侈品市場規(guī)模迅速下降。突如其來的沖擊造成整個行業(yè)的全球價值倒退了五年,回到了2015年的水平。

但隨著時間的推移,那些富裕的消費(fèi)者找到了將資金重新投入奢侈商品和奢侈體驗的方式。LVMH集團(tuán)等公司從奢侈品消費(fèi)回流中獲得了豐厚的收益,而這一趨勢也在今年早些時候?qū)⒃摴臼紫瘓?zhí)行官伯納德·阿諾特(Bernard Arnault)的財富推高至2000多億美元,使他短暫地成為世界首富。

投資者寄希望于中國在嚴(yán)格的新冠清零政策之后重新開放,從而使全球的奢侈品市場整體復(fù)蘇,但這個過程并未如人們希望的那樣順利。

近幾個月來,頑固的通貨膨脹和其他影響需求的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力使得奢侈品行業(yè)步履艱難。各大銀行預(yù)計今年美國和歐洲對奢侈品的需求將下降,這表明隨著消費(fèi)者收緊錢袋,他們的消費(fèi)行為也將發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。兩年半來一直占據(jù)歐洲最有價值公司榜首的路威酩軒被丹麥制藥公司諾和諾德(Novo Nordisk)取而代之,這進(jìn)一步讓投資者對奢侈品股票的發(fā)展方向感到震驚。根據(jù)彭博億萬富翁指數(shù)(Bloomberg Billionaires Index),阿爾諾的財富值也縮水到1690億美元。

盡管一系列因素似乎使得奢侈品支出的前景不那么樂觀,但投資者仍在密切關(guān)注第三季度業(yè)績,以更好地對來年作出預(yù)期判斷。

瑞士聯(lián)合銀行(United Bank of Switzerland)分析師也強(qiáng)調(diào),第三季度的業(yè)績將有助于“理解”中國銷售放緩對整個奢侈品行業(yè)的“影響程度“,讓“2024年變得更加清晰可見”。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:傲詩

在投資者對于市場從新冠時期的低迷中反彈的滿心期盼下,奢侈品股票在2023 年初的走勢有所抬頭,然而今天,這個歐洲最賺錢的行業(yè)之一可能再次面臨壓力。

據(jù)路透社周一報道,包括法國威酩軒集團(tuán)(LVMH)、意大利汽車制造商法拉利(Ferrari)和英國品牌巴寶莉(Burberry)等在內(nèi)的STOXX歐洲奢侈品10指數(shù)錄得2020年以來的最大季度跌幅。在一份關(guān)于9月指數(shù)新聞的報告中,STOXX指出,在從全球健康到電動汽車的各種主題指數(shù)中,奢侈品指數(shù)是 "表現(xiàn)最差的"。

奢侈品指數(shù)是STOXX作為歐洲全市場指數(shù)(STOXX Europe Total Market Index)的一個子集,近來遭受了經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的影響,包括通脹飆升、利率升高以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。

盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)股票策略主管彼得·加恩里(Peter Garnry)告訴路透社:”歐洲奢侈品股票近期的下跌反映了歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性,以及不甚明朗的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景。”該媒體指出,自 3 月底以來,這個由10 只股票組成的指數(shù)組的市值已經(jīng)縮水了約 1750 億美元。

從路威酩軒到開云集團(tuán)等奢侈品巨頭都將在未來幾周內(nèi)公布季度業(yè)績,以奢侈品為重點(diǎn)的這一指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)令人黯然神傷。

包括 STOXX 歐洲奢侈品 10 指數(shù)在內(nèi)的一些公司已經(jīng)敲響了警鐘,指出被抑制的消費(fèi)活動疊加經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩導(dǎo)致的需求低迷可能會威脅到奢侈品市場。例如,上個月,擁有卡地亞品牌的奢侈品控股公司歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)董事長約翰·魯珀(Johann Ruper)就表示,高通脹正在影響歐洲對奢侈品的需求。他的言論引發(fā)了市場上高達(dá) 250 億美元的奢侈品股票遭到拋售。

瑞銀分析師上周在《財富》雜志瀏覽的一份報告中寫道:“盡管最近投資者對(歐洲奢侈品)行業(yè)很感興趣,但大多數(shù)人還是會希望看到更清晰的2024展望,才會決定是否投資一些最優(yōu)質(zhì)的品牌。”

新冠期間的奢侈品庫存

新冠疫情爆發(fā)后,越來越多的人只能待在家里,無法像以前那樣到實體店購物,使奢侈品市場規(guī)模迅速下降。突如其來的沖擊造成整個行業(yè)的全球價值倒退了五年,回到了2015年的水平。

但隨著時間的推移,那些富裕的消費(fèi)者找到了將資金重新投入奢侈商品和奢侈體驗的方式。LVMH集團(tuán)等公司從奢侈品消費(fèi)回流中獲得了豐厚的收益,而這一趨勢也在今年早些時候?qū)⒃摴臼紫瘓?zhí)行官伯納德·阿諾特(Bernard Arnault)的財富推高至2000多億美元,使他短暫地成為世界首富。

投資者寄希望于中國在嚴(yán)格的新冠清零政策之后重新開放,從而使全球的奢侈品市場整體復(fù)蘇,但這個過程并未如人們希望的那樣順利。

近幾個月來,頑固的通貨膨脹和其他影響需求的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力使得奢侈品行業(yè)步履艱難。各大銀行預(yù)計今年美國和歐洲對奢侈品的需求將下降,這表明隨著消費(fèi)者收緊錢袋,他們的消費(fèi)行為也將發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。兩年半來一直占據(jù)歐洲最有價值公司榜首的路威酩軒被丹麥制藥公司諾和諾德(Novo Nordisk)取而代之,這進(jìn)一步讓投資者對奢侈品股票的發(fā)展方向感到震驚。根據(jù)彭博億萬富翁指數(shù)(Bloomberg Billionaires Index),阿爾諾的財富值也縮水到1690億美元。

盡管一系列因素似乎使得奢侈品支出的前景不那么樂觀,但投資者仍在密切關(guān)注第三季度業(yè)績,以更好地對來年作出預(yù)期判斷。

瑞士聯(lián)合銀行(United Bank of Switzerland)分析師也強(qiáng)調(diào),第三季度的業(yè)績將有助于“理解”中國銷售放緩對整個奢侈品行業(yè)的“影響程度“,讓“2024年變得更加清晰可見”。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:傲詩

Following a surge in luxury stocks in early 2023 amid hopes of a bounce-back from the pandemic-era slump, one of Europe’s most lucrative industries may be under pressure once again.

The STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index, which includes the likes of French conglomerate LVMH, Italian automaker Ferrari, and British brand Burberry, recorded its biggest quarterly decline since 2020, Reuters reported Monday. In a report with monthly index news for September, STOXX noted that the luxury bundle was the “worst-performing” among thematic gauges, which can range from global health to electric vehicles.

The luxury index, which is a subset of the larger STOXX Europe Total Market Index, has been impacted by economic uncertainties including soaring inflation and elevated interest rates, as well as slow growth in China.

“The recent decline in European luxury stocks reflects the uncertainty over the European economy and also the uneven growth outlook for the Chinese economy,” Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy, told Reuters. The outlet noted that about $175 billion had been wiped out from the set of 10 stocks since the end of March.

The performance of the luxury-focused index sets off a bleak picture as luxury giants from LVMH to Kering are expected to announce their quarterly results in the coming weeks.

Some companies, including those in the STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index, have sounded the alarm on how poor demand due to suppressed spending activity and economic turbulence could threaten the luxury market. For instance, last month Johann Ruper, chairman of luxury holdings company Richemont, which owns Cartier, remarked that high inflation was throwing a wrench in European demand for luxury goods. His comments prompted a sell-off worth as much as $25 billion in market value in luxury stocks.

“Despite a lot of interest in the [European luxury] sector lately, most investors may want to have more clarity around next year’s estimates to step into some of the highest quality names,” UBS analysts wrote last week in a note viewed by Fortune.

Luxury stocks during the pandemic

The onset of COVID-19 saw a quick decline in the size of the luxury goods market as more people were confined to their homes and unable to shop at physical stores as before. The sudden shock set the industry back by five years to its global value in 2015.

But with time, affluent consumers found ways to pour money back into luxury products and experiences. Companies like LVMH gained handsomely from the return of luxury spending—and the trend helped push up CEO Bernard Arnault’s wealth to over $200 billion earlier this year, briefly making him the world’s richest man.

Investors were betting on China’s reopening following a strict COVID-zero policy to fuel the remainder of the luxury market’s recovery—except that didn’t quite pan out the way people hoped.

Stubborn inflation and other economic pressures impacting demand have made the luxury industry forge a rocky path in recent months. Banks have forecasted the appetite for luxury goods to decline through this year in the U.S. and in Europe, a sign of the shift in consumer spending behavior as they tighten their purse strings. And LVMH, which had occupied the position of Europe’s most valuable company for two-and-a-half years was dethroned by Danish pharma company Novo Nordisk, spooking investors further about the direction luxury stocks are heading. Arnault’s wealth has also dropped to $169 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Although a confluence of factors seem to be dampening the outlook on luxury spending, investors are closely watching for the third quarter results to better gauge what to expect for the upcoming year.

UBS analysts also emphasized that Q3 results would help “understand the extent” to which slower sales in China could impact the entire luxury sector, offering “more visibility into 2024.”

財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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