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為何TikTok被“羅馬帝國(guó)”刷屏了?

WILL DANIEL
2023-09-23

兩千年前導(dǎo)致羅馬覆滅的惡性通脹再度回響

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2015年5月19日,億萬(wàn)富翁激進(jìn)投資者卡爾·伊坎(Carl Icahn)出席在紐約舉行的杠桿融資對(duì)抗黑色素瘤慈善活動(dòng)。圖片來(lái)源:VICTOR J. BLUE—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

你知道男性有多執(zhí)迷于古羅馬的故事嗎?在TikTok新的熱門話題里,女性詢問(wèn)她們生活中的男性多久會(huì)琢磨羅馬帝國(guó)一次。答案令人瞠目結(jié)舌,一些男性承認(rèn),他們每周甚至每天都會(huì)反復(fù)琢磨古羅馬的遼闊疆域和影響力。

這一熱門話題現(xiàn)在非常受歡迎,TikTok上的#羅馬帝國(guó)標(biāo)簽瀏覽量已超過(guò)12億次。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,億萬(wàn)富翁們也難逃追憶角斗和戰(zhàn)車競(jìng)賽時(shí)代的魅力。看看Meta的馬克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)就知道了,他多次表達(dá)了對(duì)奧古斯都(Augustus)的欽佩之情,奧古斯都是古代世界上最偉大的獨(dú)裁者之一,也是凱撒遇刺后羅馬的第一位皇帝。

“我不確定自己是否過(guò)多琢磨羅馬帝國(guó)了。我想知道我的女兒馬克西瑪(Maxima)、奧古斯特(August)和奧蕾莉亞(Aurelia)會(huì)怎么想。” 這位億萬(wàn)富翁周二在Threads上發(fā)布了這樣一條帖子,呼應(yīng)了羅馬帝國(guó)這一近期的TikTok熱門話題。

但其他億萬(wàn)富翁似乎琢磨更多的是羅馬帝國(guó)的滅亡,而不是羅馬帝國(guó)本身。伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)創(chuàng)始人、億萬(wàn)富翁卡爾·伊坎在上世紀(jì)80年代以“企業(yè)掠奪者”的典型形象一舉成名。他甚至在去年警告稱,疫情期間美國(guó)通脹水平上升與羅馬帝國(guó)衰落時(shí)期的情況很像。伊坎在去年9月的“貨幣節(jié)最佳新創(chuàng)意”上對(duì)市場(chǎng)觀察網(wǎng)(MarketWatch)說(shuō):“最糟糕的情況尚未出現(xiàn)。通貨膨脹會(huì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重后果。你無(wú)法治愈它帶來(lái)的損傷。”

全球最大對(duì)沖基金橋水基金(Bridgewater Associates)的創(chuàng)始人瑞·達(dá)利歐(Ray Dalio)是另一位有著驚人相似觀點(diǎn)的億萬(wàn)富翁。達(dá)利歐在2021年出版了一本關(guān)于羅馬帝國(guó)興衰的書(shū),名為《原則:應(yīng)對(duì)變化中的世界秩序》(Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail)。他在2022年6月的《金融時(shí)報(bào)》播客節(jié)目《拉赫曼說(shuō)事》中解釋說(shuō),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在疫情期間大幅增加貨幣供應(yīng)量的做法與羅馬帝國(guó)衰落時(shí)期的情況如出一轍。

“從歷史上看,當(dāng)國(guó)家沒(méi)有足夠的資金時(shí),就會(huì)印鈔,這可以追溯到羅馬帝國(guó)時(shí)期。”他說(shuō)。

眾所周知,羅馬帝國(guó)經(jīng)歷了惡性通貨膨脹,此前幾位皇帝降低了貨幣“第納爾”銀幣(denarius)的含銀量,以增加國(guó)家資本。公元64年,一場(chǎng)所謂的大火燒毀了半個(gè)羅馬城,導(dǎo)致尼祿皇帝(emperor Nero)尋求一種快速獲得重建城市所需資金的方法。據(jù)一些歷史學(xué)家估計(jì),羅馬皇帝的貨幣貶值政策最終導(dǎo)致公元200年至300年間通貨膨脹率達(dá)到15,000%。

達(dá)利歐于2022年放棄了對(duì)橋水基金的控制權(quán),但據(jù)報(bào)道,他已開(kāi)始努力恢復(fù)自己在該公司的地位。他曾暗示,聯(lián)邦政府在疫情期間通過(guò)債務(wù)為支出項(xiàng)目提供資金的決定,可能是重演這段痛苦歷史的開(kāi)始。

他向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“在我的一生中,這是我們經(jīng)常看到的經(jīng)典動(dòng)態(tài),但它也是貨幣漲跌背后的底層原因。”

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司安德森·霍洛維茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、億萬(wàn)富翁企業(yè)家兼程序員馬克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)最近也提到了羅馬帝國(guó)的衰落,他在去年10月的一篇社交媒體帖子中,將自己在加州的經(jīng)歷比作生活在“曾經(jīng)輝煌一時(shí)的社會(huì)的廢墟中”。他寫(xiě)道:“就像公元250年的羅馬一樣,我們生活在文化和創(chuàng)造力蓬勃發(fā)展的時(shí)代,但發(fā)展道路卻變得越來(lái)越危險(xiǎn),而且沒(méi)有人知道確切原因。”

雖然很難概括億萬(wàn)富翁階層的歷史閱讀趨勢(shì),更不用說(shuō)整個(gè)男性群體了,但超級(jí)富豪對(duì)羅馬帝國(guó)興衰的癡迷是有先例的——幾百年來(lái)都是如此。最終當(dāng)選為英國(guó)議會(huì)議員的愛(ài)德華·吉本(Edward Gibbon)出身于英國(guó)富裕家庭(該家族在18世紀(jì)20年代的南海泡沫(South Sea Bubble)中失去了大部分財(cái)富,但后來(lái)又重新獲得了財(cái)富)。他被認(rèn)為是啟蒙運(yùn)動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵人物,這主要?dú)w功于他宏大的多卷本歷史著作——《羅馬帝國(guó)衰亡史》(The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire)(書(shū)名恰如其分)。從那以后,這本書(shū)就一直被個(gè)人收藏,甚至可能在伊坎、達(dá)利歐等人手中。他的書(shū)籍并未涉及惡性通貨膨脹,而且如今,人們普遍認(rèn)為該書(shū)有問(wèn)題(這是因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為,羅馬帝國(guó)接受基督教最終削弱了公民美德,造成了嚴(yán)重后果,他對(duì)宗教的批評(píng)在后來(lái)引發(fā)了反猶太主義的指控)。(值得注意的是,總體而言,吉本的反天主教傾向是啟蒙思想的標(biāo)志。)

超級(jí)富豪對(duì)羅馬帝國(guó)衰落的執(zhí)著可能也與二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的崛起有關(guān)。二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)約占全球GDP的50%。但到2022年,經(jīng)過(guò)新興市場(chǎng)多年的發(fā)展和其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的復(fù)蘇,這一數(shù)字已降至13.5%。這暗示著敘事轉(zhuǎn)向美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落。

1992年,《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》(Harvard Business Review)首次討論了觸及這一點(diǎn)的新趨勢(shì),并稱之為美國(guó)的“衰落主義”,指出預(yù)言者、精英,甚至許多普通公眾都開(kāi)始擔(dān)心,在經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈的情況下,美國(guó)出現(xiàn)了“根本性的問(wèn)題”。這些擔(dān)憂可能是合乎情理的,但也可能只是反映了美國(guó)在世界舞臺(tái)上地位的變化,而不是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)“帝國(guó)”的坍塌。但有趣的是,縱觀歷史,所有事件往往都能追溯到羅馬帝國(guó)時(shí)期。羅馬帝國(guó)令世界各地的男性群體“魂?duì)繅?mèng)繞”(無(wú)論億萬(wàn)富翁與否)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

你知道男性有多執(zhí)迷于古羅馬的故事嗎?在TikTok新的熱門話題里,女性詢問(wèn)她們生活中的男性多久會(huì)琢磨羅馬帝國(guó)一次。答案令人瞠目結(jié)舌,一些男性承認(rèn),他們每周甚至每天都會(huì)反復(fù)琢磨古羅馬的遼闊疆域和影響力。

這一熱門話題現(xiàn)在非常受歡迎,TikTok上的#羅馬帝國(guó)標(biāo)簽瀏覽量已超過(guò)12億次。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,億萬(wàn)富翁們也難逃追憶角斗和戰(zhàn)車競(jìng)賽時(shí)代的魅力。看看Meta的馬克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)就知道了,他多次表達(dá)了對(duì)奧古斯都(Augustus)的欽佩之情,奧古斯都是古代世界上最偉大的獨(dú)裁者之一,也是凱撒遇刺后羅馬的第一位皇帝。

“我不確定自己是否過(guò)多琢磨羅馬帝國(guó)了。我想知道我的女兒馬克西瑪(Maxima)、奧古斯特(August)和奧蕾莉亞(Aurelia)會(huì)怎么想。” 這位億萬(wàn)富翁周二在Threads上發(fā)布了這樣一條帖子,呼應(yīng)了羅馬帝國(guó)這一近期的TikTok熱門話題。

但其他億萬(wàn)富翁似乎琢磨更多的是羅馬帝國(guó)的滅亡,而不是羅馬帝國(guó)本身。伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)創(chuàng)始人、億萬(wàn)富翁卡爾·伊坎在上世紀(jì)80年代以“企業(yè)掠奪者”的典型形象一舉成名。他甚至在去年警告稱,疫情期間美國(guó)通脹水平上升與羅馬帝國(guó)衰落時(shí)期的情況很像。伊坎在去年9月的“貨幣節(jié)最佳新創(chuàng)意”上對(duì)市場(chǎng)觀察網(wǎng)(MarketWatch)說(shuō):“最糟糕的情況尚未出現(xiàn)。通貨膨脹會(huì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重后果。你無(wú)法治愈它帶來(lái)的損傷。”

全球最大對(duì)沖基金橋水基金(Bridgewater Associates)的創(chuàng)始人瑞·達(dá)利歐(Ray Dalio)是另一位有著驚人相似觀點(diǎn)的億萬(wàn)富翁。達(dá)利歐在2021年出版了一本關(guān)于羅馬帝國(guó)興衰的書(shū),名為《原則:應(yīng)對(duì)變化中的世界秩序》(Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail)。他在2022年6月的《金融時(shí)報(bào)》播客節(jié)目《拉赫曼說(shuō)事》中解釋說(shuō),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在疫情期間大幅增加貨幣供應(yīng)量的做法與羅馬帝國(guó)衰落時(shí)期的情況如出一轍。

“從歷史上看,當(dāng)國(guó)家沒(méi)有足夠的資金時(shí),就會(huì)印鈔,這可以追溯到羅馬帝國(guó)時(shí)期。”他說(shuō)。

眾所周知,羅馬帝國(guó)經(jīng)歷了惡性通貨膨脹,此前幾位皇帝降低了貨幣“第納爾”銀幣(denarius)的含銀量,以增加國(guó)家資本。公元64年,一場(chǎng)所謂的大火燒毀了半個(gè)羅馬城,導(dǎo)致尼祿皇帝(emperor Nero)尋求一種快速獲得重建城市所需資金的方法。據(jù)一些歷史學(xué)家估計(jì),羅馬皇帝的貨幣貶值政策最終導(dǎo)致公元200年至300年間通貨膨脹率達(dá)到15,000%。

達(dá)利歐于2022年放棄了對(duì)橋水基金的控制權(quán),但據(jù)報(bào)道,他已開(kāi)始努力恢復(fù)自己在該公司的地位。他曾暗示,聯(lián)邦政府在疫情期間通過(guò)債務(wù)為支出項(xiàng)目提供資金的決定,可能是重演這段痛苦歷史的開(kāi)始。

他向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“在我的一生中,這是我們經(jīng)常看到的經(jīng)典動(dòng)態(tài),但它也是貨幣漲跌背后的底層原因。”

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司安德森·霍洛維茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、億萬(wàn)富翁企業(yè)家兼程序員馬克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)最近也提到了羅馬帝國(guó)的衰落,他在去年10月的一篇社交媒體帖子中,將自己在加州的經(jīng)歷比作生活在“曾經(jīng)輝煌一時(shí)的社會(huì)的廢墟中”。他寫(xiě)道:“就像公元250年的羅馬一樣,我們生活在文化和創(chuàng)造力蓬勃發(fā)展的時(shí)代,但發(fā)展道路卻變得越來(lái)越危險(xiǎn),而且沒(méi)有人知道確切原因。”

雖然很難概括億萬(wàn)富翁階層的歷史閱讀趨勢(shì),更不用說(shuō)整個(gè)男性群體了,但超級(jí)富豪對(duì)羅馬帝國(guó)興衰的癡迷是有先例的——幾百年來(lái)都是如此。最終當(dāng)選為英國(guó)議會(huì)議員的愛(ài)德華·吉本(Edward Gibbon)出身于英國(guó)富裕家庭(該家族在18世紀(jì)20年代的南海泡沫(South Sea Bubble)中失去了大部分財(cái)富,但后來(lái)又重新獲得了財(cái)富)。他被認(rèn)為是啟蒙運(yùn)動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵人物,這主要?dú)w功于他宏大的多卷本歷史著作——《羅馬帝國(guó)衰亡史》(The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire)(書(shū)名恰如其分)。從那以后,這本書(shū)就一直被個(gè)人收藏,甚至可能在伊坎、達(dá)利歐等人手中。他的書(shū)籍并未涉及惡性通貨膨脹,而且如今,人們普遍認(rèn)為該書(shū)有問(wèn)題(這是因?yàn)樗J(rèn)為,羅馬帝國(guó)接受基督教最終削弱了公民美德,造成了嚴(yán)重后果,他對(duì)宗教的批評(píng)在后來(lái)引發(fā)了反猶太主義的指控)。(值得注意的是,總體而言,吉本的反天主教傾向是啟蒙思想的標(biāo)志。)

超級(jí)富豪對(duì)羅馬帝國(guó)衰落的執(zhí)著可能也與二戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的崛起有關(guān)。二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)約占全球GDP的50%。但到2022年,經(jīng)過(guò)新興市場(chǎng)多年的發(fā)展和其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的復(fù)蘇,這一數(shù)字已降至13.5%。這暗示著敘事轉(zhuǎn)向美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落。

1992年,《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》(Harvard Business Review)首次討論了觸及這一點(diǎn)的新趨勢(shì),并稱之為美國(guó)的“衰落主義”,指出預(yù)言者、精英,甚至許多普通公眾都開(kāi)始擔(dān)心,在經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈的情況下,美國(guó)出現(xiàn)了“根本性的問(wèn)題”。這些擔(dān)憂可能是合乎情理的,但也可能只是反映了美國(guó)在世界舞臺(tái)上地位的變化,而不是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)“帝國(guó)”的坍塌。但有趣的是,縱觀歷史,所有事件往往都能追溯到羅馬帝國(guó)時(shí)期。羅馬帝國(guó)令世界各地的男性群體“魂?duì)繅?mèng)繞”(無(wú)論億萬(wàn)富翁與否)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Have you heard that men think about ancient Rome a lot? There’s a new viral Tik Tok trend where women ask the men in their lives how often they think about the Roman Empire. The answers are pretty surprising, with some men admitting that they think about the influence and breadth of the ancient state multiple times per week, or even multiple times per day.

The trend is now so popular that the #RomanEmpire hashtag on TikTok has surpassed 1.2 billion views. And as it happens, billionaires aren’t immune from the charm of reminiscing about the days of gladiatorial combat and chariot races, either. Just take a look at Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, who has repeatedly expressed his admiration for Augustus, one of the ancient world’s greatest dictators, and also the first emperor of Rome after Julius Caesar’s assassination.

“Not sure if I think about the Roman Empire too much. I wonder what my daughters Maxima, August and Aurelia think,” the billionaire posted on Threads Tuesday, leaning into the recent Roman empire TikTok trend.

But other billionaires seem to be thinking more about the downfall of the Roman Empire than the empire itself. Carl Icahn, the billionaire founder of Icahn Enterprises who rose to fame as the archetypal “corporate raider” in the 1980s, even warned last year that the rise of U.S. inflation during the pandemic looked a lot like what was seen during the fall of the Roman Empire. “The worst is yet to come,” Icahn told MarketWatch at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival last September. “Inflation is a terrible thing. You can’t cure it.”

Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, is another billionaire with an uncannily similar diagnosis. Dalio, who published a book about the rise and fall of empires in 2021 called Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, explained in a June 2022 episode of the Financial Times’ Rachman Review podcast that the Federal Reserve’s expansion of the U.S. money supply during the pandemic mirrored what was seen during the fall of the Roman empire.

“When countries don’t have enough money historically, then they print money, and that goes back to the Roman Empire,” he said.

The Roman Empire famously experienced hyperinflation after a series of emperors lowered the silver content in their currency, the denarius, in an attempt to bolster state funds. It began after the so-called Great Fire destroyed half of Rome in 64 AD, leading emperor Nero to search for a quick fix method of gaining the money required to rebuild the city. Roman emperors’ currency debasement eventually led to an inflation rate of 15,000% between A.D. 200 and 300, according to estimates by some historians.

Dalio, who gave up control of Bridgewater in 2022 but has reportedly begun a struggle to regain his status at the firm, has alluded to the idea that the federal government’s decision to finance spending programs via debt throughout the pandemic could be the beginning of a repeat of this torrid history.

“For my whole life, it’s a classic dynamic that we see all the time, but it is also the basis behind the rises and declines of currencies,” he told the Financial Times.

Marc Andreessen, the billionaire entrepreneur and programmer who co-founded the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, has also recently referenced the fall of the Roman Empire, comparing his experience in California to living in the “ruins of a once great society” in a social media post last October. “Like Rome in maybe 250 A.D., we live amidst an enormous flowering of culture and creativity, but the roads are becoming unsafe and nobody is quite sure why,” he wrote.

While it’s difficult to generalize about the history-reading trends of a class of billionaires, let alone the entire male gender, there is precedent for a fixation on the decline and fall of the Roman Empire among the ultrawealthy—hundreds of years of it. Edward Gibbon, who was ultimately elected to the UK Parliament, was born into a propertied English family that had lost most of its fortune in the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s but later regained it. He’s known to history as a key figure from the Enlightenment, largely thanks to his epic multi-volume work of history, the aptly named “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” The book has been in personal libraries ever since, and may even be in the possession of Icahn, Dalio, et al. His thesis did not touch on hyperinflation and is widely considered problematic today, however, as he argued that the Empire’s embrace of Christianity ultimately fatally weakened its civic virtue, and his criticisms of religion have brought latter-day accusations of antisemitism. (Gibbon’s anti-Catholic leanings were a hallmark of Enlightenment thought in general, it’s worth noting.)

The fixation of the fall of the Roman Empire among the ultrawealthy may also be tied to the rise of economic competitors to the U.S. after World War II. After that war ended, the U.S. economy represented roughly 50% of global GDP. But in 2022, after years of development in emerging markets and recoveries in other advanced economies, that number has fallen to just 13.5%. Cue the decline and fall narrative.

In 1992, the Harvard Business Review first discussed a new trend that touched on this point, which it called American “declinism,” noting that prognosticators, elites, and even many members of the general public had begun to fear that something was “fundamentally wrong” with the U.S. amid rising economic competition. Those fears may be warranted, but they could also simply be a reflection of the changing position of the U.S. on the world stage, rather than the collapse of an economic “empire.” But it is funny how, throughout history, things often come back to the Romans, on the minds of men everywhere, be they billionaire or not.

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