在周二的交易中暴跌逾40%前不久,做空傳奇人物吉姆·查諾斯對(duì)越南聲名遠(yuǎn)播的汽車股VinFast Auto頗有微詞。
這位(在安然公司倒閉前)因做空安然公司大賺一筆而一舉成名的投機(jī)者,僅在幾小時(shí)前還將這家電動(dòng)汽車新貴稱為“市值2000億美元的網(wǎng)紅股”。
他在X(前身推特)上發(fā)推文稱:“散戶正在買入一只期權(quán)交易員認(rèn)為未來(lái)三周將下跌50%的股票。”他引用的是基于9月15日到期的看跌期權(quán)的隱含價(jià)格。
目前尚不清楚查諾斯是否在暗示,他本人也在做空VinFast,就像他做空電動(dòng)汽車競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手特斯拉(Tesla)一樣,但投資者會(huì)聽從這位華爾街資深人士的交易建議。
無(wú)論如何,VinFast的股價(jià)隨后暴跌。
無(wú)法立即聯(lián)系到查諾斯進(jìn)行置評(píng),而VinFast的代表也沒有回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》雜志的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。
這家越南汽車制造商作為上市公司的首次亮相,在某種程度上,標(biāo)志著這家初創(chuàng)公司創(chuàng)造了童話。
本月早些時(shí)候,該公司通過特殊目的收購(gòu)公司(SPAC)上市,避開了傳統(tǒng)的、更為嚴(yán)格的首次公開募股(IPO)方式。
短短幾天內(nèi),該公司的市值就幾乎超過了整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)。
如果VFS(Vinfast)幸運(yùn)的話,他們今年將生產(chǎn)4萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車,而豐田(Toyota)將在未來(lái)40小時(shí)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)4萬(wàn)輛。
盡管VinFast只是一家成立6年的汽車制造公司,迄今為止只售出了1.87萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車,而且其所在國(guó)家去年的汽車產(chǎn)量只有摩洛哥的一半。
更糟糕的是,它之所以聲名狼藉,是因?yàn)槠浣衲陮⒃诿绹?guó)市場(chǎng)推出的新型電動(dòng)汽車粗制濫造。
客戶對(duì)該公司大為惱火,以至于該公司迅速在6月份出臺(tái)了一項(xiàng)政策,對(duì)車主的損失進(jìn)行賠償。
VinFast僅在周二就損失了超過800億美元的市值,但仍是僅次于特斯拉和豐田的全球第三大最有價(jià)值的汽車制造商,這凸顯出該公司在本周初被嚴(yán)重高估。
高股價(jià):基于VinFast低自由流通股本
要真正了解VinFast驚人的市值規(guī)模,我們不妨將其與汽車同行進(jìn)行比較。
雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)(Yahoo Finance)援引晨星公司(Morningstar)的數(shù)據(jù)稱,豐田的市值低于其過去12個(gè)月的營(yíng)收。對(duì)于一個(gè)成熟的行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者來(lái)說,這是一個(gè)合理的估值。相比之下,通用汽車(GM)和福特(Ford)面臨投資者大幅提高貼現(xiàn)率(從而導(dǎo)致估值降低)。
在成長(zhǎng)型股票領(lǐng)域,Rivian、蔚來(lái)汽車(Nio)和小鵬汽車(Xpeng)等電動(dòng)汽車制造商的估值高達(dá)其營(yíng)收的6倍。在埃隆·馬斯克的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,特斯拉的溢價(jià)甚至更高,因?yàn)橥顿Y者預(yù)計(jì)其自動(dòng)駕駛軟件完全自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)(FSD)將在這一高利潤(rùn)行業(yè)獲得的收益中占據(jù)更大份額。
與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,VinFast的交易價(jià)格是其年銷售額的350倍,這令人震驚,也引發(fā)了對(duì)其市場(chǎng)估值的嚴(yán)重質(zhì)疑。
然而,盡管做空者很有可能押注大量資金,押注該公司最終會(huì)從過高的估值回落,但這并非易事。
對(duì)于查諾斯或其他任何想要做空的人來(lái)說,僅找到能夠并愿意出借這些股票的主要經(jīng)紀(jì)商,可能就極具挑戰(zhàn)性。
這是因?yàn)樵摴?9%的股份由一個(gè)人持有:董事長(zhǎng)兼創(chuàng)始人潘日旺(Pham Nhat Vuong)。憑借VinFast,潘日旺本周一度成為亞洲第二富有的富豪(賬面上)。
此外,由于稍有買盤壓力,賭注就會(huì)迅速下跌,做空VinFast所需的抵押品可能會(huì)高得令人望而卻步。
對(duì)于任何想要在如此波動(dòng)的股票上冒險(xiǎn)的人來(lái)說,接受查諾斯的間接暗示,直接在期權(quán)市場(chǎng)尋找機(jī)會(huì)可能更容易。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
在周二的交易中暴跌逾40%前不久,做空傳奇人物吉姆·查諾斯對(duì)越南聲名遠(yuǎn)播的汽車股VinFast Auto頗有微詞。
這位(在安然公司倒閉前)因做空安然公司大賺一筆而一舉成名的投機(jī)者,僅在幾小時(shí)前還將這家電動(dòng)汽車新貴稱為“市值2000億美元的網(wǎng)紅股”。
他在X(前身推特)上發(fā)推文稱:“散戶正在買入一只期權(quán)交易員認(rèn)為未來(lái)三周將下跌50%的股票。”他引用的是基于9月15日到期的看跌期權(quán)的隱含價(jià)格。
目前尚不清楚查諾斯是否在暗示,他本人也在做空VinFast,就像他做空電動(dòng)汽車競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手特斯拉(Tesla)一樣,但投資者會(huì)聽從這位華爾街資深人士的交易建議。
無(wú)論如何,VinFast的股價(jià)隨后暴跌。
無(wú)法立即聯(lián)系到查諾斯進(jìn)行置評(píng),而VinFast的代表也沒有回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》雜志的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。
這家越南汽車制造商作為上市公司的首次亮相,在某種程度上,標(biāo)志著這家初創(chuàng)公司創(chuàng)造了童話。
本月早些時(shí)候,該公司通過特殊目的收購(gòu)公司(SPAC)上市,避開了傳統(tǒng)的、更為嚴(yán)格的首次公開募股(IPO)方式。
短短幾天內(nèi),該公司的市值就幾乎超過了整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)。
如果VFS(Vinfast)幸運(yùn)的話,他們今年將生產(chǎn)4萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車,而豐田(Toyota)將在未來(lái)40小時(shí)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)4萬(wàn)輛。
盡管VinFast只是一家成立6年的汽車制造公司,迄今為止只售出了1.87萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車,而且其所在國(guó)家去年的汽車產(chǎn)量只有摩洛哥的一半。
更糟糕的是,它之所以聲名狼藉,是因?yàn)槠浣衲陮⒃诿绹?guó)市場(chǎng)推出的新型電動(dòng)汽車粗制濫造。
客戶對(duì)該公司大為惱火,以至于該公司迅速在6月份出臺(tái)了一項(xiàng)政策,對(duì)車主的損失進(jìn)行賠償。
VinFast僅在周二就損失了超過800億美元的市值,但仍是僅次于特斯拉和豐田的全球第三大最有價(jià)值的汽車制造商,這凸顯出該公司在本周初被嚴(yán)重高估。
高股價(jià):基于VinFast低自由流通股本
要真正了解VinFast驚人的市值規(guī)模,我們不妨將其與汽車同行進(jìn)行比較。
雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)(Yahoo Finance)援引晨星公司(Morningstar)的數(shù)據(jù)稱,豐田的市值低于其過去12個(gè)月的營(yíng)收。對(duì)于一個(gè)成熟的行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者來(lái)說,這是一個(gè)合理的估值。相比之下,通用汽車(GM)和福特(Ford)面臨投資者大幅提高貼現(xiàn)率(從而導(dǎo)致估值降低)。
在成長(zhǎng)型股票領(lǐng)域,Rivian、蔚來(lái)汽車(Nio)和小鵬汽車(Xpeng)等電動(dòng)汽車制造商的估值高達(dá)其營(yíng)收的6倍。在埃隆·馬斯克的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,特斯拉的溢價(jià)甚至更高,因?yàn)橥顿Y者預(yù)計(jì)其自動(dòng)駕駛軟件完全自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)(FSD)將在這一高利潤(rùn)行業(yè)獲得的收益中占據(jù)更大份額。
與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,VinFast的交易價(jià)格是其年銷售額的350倍,這令人震驚,也引發(fā)了對(duì)其市場(chǎng)估值的嚴(yán)重質(zhì)疑。
然而,盡管做空者很有可能押注大量資金,押注該公司最終會(huì)從過高的估值回落,但這并非易事。
對(duì)于查諾斯或其他任何想要做空的人來(lái)說,僅找到能夠并愿意出借這些股票的主要經(jīng)紀(jì)商,可能就極具挑戰(zhàn)性。
這是因?yàn)樵摴?9%的股份由一個(gè)人持有:董事長(zhǎng)兼創(chuàng)始人潘日旺(Pham Nhat Vuong)。憑借VinFast,潘日旺本周一度成為亞洲第二富有的富豪(賬面上)。
此外,由于稍有買盤壓力,賭注就會(huì)迅速下跌,做空VinFast所需的抵押品可能會(huì)高得令人望而卻步。
對(duì)于任何想要在如此波動(dòng)的股票上冒險(xiǎn)的人來(lái)說,接受查諾斯的間接暗示,直接在期權(quán)市場(chǎng)尋找機(jī)會(huì)可能更容易。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Short-selling legend Jim Chanos had a few choice words for VinFast Auto, the wunderkind car stock from Vietnam, shortly before it tanked by more than 40% in Tuesday’s trading session.
The speculator, who famously made a fortune betting against Enron before its demise, branded the electric vehicle newcomer a “$200 billion meme stock” only hours earlier.
“Retail is buying a stock that options traders think will drop 50%…in the next three weeks,” he tweeted on Musk’s rebranded X site, citing the implied price based on put options set to expire on Sept. 15.
It’s unclear whether Chanos was signaling he himself was taking on a short position in VinFast just as he has with EV rival Tesla, but investors follow the Wall Street veteran for trading advice.
Either way, shares in VinFast plummeted thereafter.
Chanos could not be immediately reached for comment, while representatives from VinFast did not respond to a request by Fortune for comment.
The Vietnamese carmaker’s debut as a publicly traded company marked something of a fairy tale for the startup.
Eschewing a conventional and more rigorous IPO, it listed earlier this month through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).
In a matter of days, it had overtaken almost the entire car industry in market value.
If $VFS (Vinfast) is lucky, they will do 40K units this year. Toyota will do 40K units in the next 40 hours.
This is despite the fact that VinFast is just a six-year-old carmaker that sold only 18,700 electric vehicles to date and hails from a country that built half as many cars as Morocco last year.
Worse, what notoriety it had won came from building the worst new EV to be launched in the U.S. market this year.
Customers were so furious it quickly rushed out in June a policy to compensate owners for their troubles.
VinFast losing over $80 billion in market cap on a single Tuesday and still ranking as the world’s third most valuable carmaker, after Tesla and Toyota, highlights the company’s significant overvaluation at the beginning of the week.
High stock price based on VinFast’s thin free float
To truly grasp the astonishing scale of VinFast’s market capitalization, let’s compare it with its automotive peers.
According to Morningstar data cited by Yahoo Finance, Toyota’s market cap is less than its trailing 12-month revenue. This is a reasonable valuation for a mature industry leader. In contrast, GM and Ford face more substantial discounts from investors.
In the realm of growth stocks, electric vehicle manufacturers like Rivian, Nio, and Xpeng are valued at up to six times their respective revenue figures. Tesla, under Elon Musk’s leadership, commands an even higher premium as investors anticipate a greater share of high-margin earnings from its self-driving software, FSD.
In stark contrast, VinFast was trading at a staggering 350 times its annual sales. This raises serious questions about its market valuation.
Yet as much as it may be tempting for short-sellers to place sizable bets on the air eventually being let out of its inflated, it’s not that easy.
For Chanos or anyone else willing to place a bearish wager, simply locating a prime broker able and willing to loan out the shares could prove extremely challenging.
That’s because 99% of the stock is held by one man: chairman and founder Pham Nhat Vuong, who at one point this week was Asia’s second richest tycoon on paper thanks to VinFast.
Moreover, since the bet could quickly go south at the slightest buying pressure, the collateral requirements that come with shorting VinFast could prove prohibitively high.
For anyone willing to risk money on such a volatile stock, it may be easier to take Chanos’s indirect suggestion and simply look for opportunity in the options market.