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經(jīng)濟(jì)每況愈下,英國民眾再也不淡定了

Eleanor Pringle
2023-05-04

英國人以“保持冷靜,繼續(xù)前行”而聞名,但英國央行的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家休·皮爾卻讓小企業(yè)和公眾感到不安。

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圖片來源:JAMES MANNING—PA IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

英國央行(Bank of England)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家公開發(fā)表評(píng)論稱,由于通貨膨脹,英國工人需要“接受”他們因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎浂兊酶毟F了,因此,這位首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家被批評(píng)與現(xiàn)實(shí)脫節(jié)。

休·皮爾在哥倫比亞大學(xué)法學(xué)院(Columbia Law School)的一檔名為“超越史無前例”(Beyond Unprecedented)的播客節(jié)目中表示,目前英國像在玩“擊鼓傳花”的游戲,企業(yè)提高成本,而員工要求加薪,再加上俄烏沖突和天然氣價(jià)格上漲等供應(yīng)方面的壓力,從而誘發(fā)高通脹。

皮爾說:“當(dāng)你每個(gè)月的能源賬單上漲四倍到五倍時(shí),這就會(huì)吞噬你的收入。你會(huì)怎么做呢?你自然會(huì)說:‘我需要加薪。’如果你是一家餐館的老板,你會(huì)怎么做呢?你自然會(huì)說:‘我需要提高餐費(fèi),以抵償煤氣費(fèi)上漲。’當(dāng)然,這個(gè)過程最終會(huì)弄巧成拙。”

他進(jìn)一步表示,普通英國人需要削減開支,接受生活質(zhì)量下降的事實(shí)。

皮爾說:“因此,在英國,人們需要接受他們的處境每況愈下,并停止試圖通過抬高價(jià)格、提高工資或者將能源成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者的方式來維持他們的實(shí)際消費(fèi)能力。”他補(bǔ)充道,“人們不愿意接受這樣的事實(shí):沒錯(cuò),我們所有人的處境每況愈下,我們必須承擔(dān)自己的那份責(zé)任。”

英國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Office of National Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至今年3月,英國目前的同比通脹率為10.1%,扣除能源、食品、酒精和煙草的核心通脹率上升了5.7%。根據(jù)政府的數(shù)據(jù),3月的私人租房價(jià)格同比上漲4.9%,連續(xù)第11個(gè)月“破紀(jì)錄上漲”,而用于家庭取暖和烹飪的天然氣價(jià)格同期上漲了129.4%。

皮爾的言論立即遭到小企業(yè)團(tuán)體和工會(huì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的猛烈抨擊。英國最大的工會(huì)之一GMB工會(huì)的研究和政策主管勞倫斯·特納對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他們“愚蠢而缺乏同情心”,并補(bǔ)充說,英國正在遭受“人們記憶中最嚴(yán)重的生活成本危機(jī)”。

英國央行沒有立即答復(fù)《財(cái)富》雜志的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

堅(jiān)持下去

小企業(yè)團(tuán)體也對(duì)皮爾的言論表示憤怒。

英國小企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)(Federation of Small Businesses)的政策主席蒂娜·麥肯齊告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,皮爾的言論“與小企業(yè)面臨的困境脫節(jié)”。

麥肯齊解釋說:“幾個(gè)月來,小企業(yè)一直承受著高通脹的沖擊,它們別無選擇,只能將能源和投入成本的大幅上漲反映在它們的定價(jià)中——在許多情況下,即使這樣也不足以填補(bǔ)缺口。”

她補(bǔ)充道,許多小企業(yè)“痛苦地”意識(shí)到,它們的客戶無法承受成本上漲的沖擊,它們正在竭盡所能壓低價(jià)格。

她說:“小企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備比大公司少得多,數(shù)百萬小企業(yè)因?yàn)橛馄诟犊疃墒軗p失,進(jìn)一步減少了它們的財(cái)務(wù)回旋余地。英國央行上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率使得許多現(xiàn)有貸款的成本更高,并減少了小企業(yè)和初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的融資選擇。它們中有太多的人只是日復(fù)一日地堅(jiān)持著,無法投資和規(guī)劃未來。”

嚴(yán)厲的愛嗎?

皮爾的言論并不是英國央行第一次對(duì)勞動(dòng)力提出忠告。2022年2月,英國央行的行長安德魯·貝利在接受英國廣播公司廣播四臺(tái)(BBC Radio 4)采訪時(shí)稱,工人應(yīng)該停止要求加薪。

貝利表示:“我并不是說沒有人會(huì)加薪,不要誤解我的意思,但我認(rèn)為,我想表達(dá)的是,我們確實(shí)需要看到人們不再要求加薪。我不想從任何角度美化這一信息。這是痛苦的。但是我們需要看到這樣的情況發(fā)生,以便更快地解決問題。”

貝利的言論在當(dāng)時(shí)不僅激怒了工會(huì),還招致了英國政府的譴責(zé)。首相的發(fā)言人說:“我們承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨挑戰(zhàn)(安德魯·貝利提出的);但顯然,政府無權(quán)設(shè)定工資,也無權(quán)為私營企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略方向或者管理提出建議。”

全球頂級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)各國需要為所謂的工資-價(jià)格螺旋擔(dān)憂到什么程度意見不一。工資-價(jià)格螺旋是指物價(jià)上漲導(dǎo)致工資上漲,而工資上漲又導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)能力增強(qiáng),從而推高物價(jià)。

德國財(cái)政部的部長克里斯蒂安·林德納在今年4月初指出,工資-價(jià)格螺旋式上升的威脅“真實(shí)存在”。

但美國財(cái)政部的部長珍妮特·耶倫在今年早些時(shí)候說,她沒有看到這種趨勢(shì)的任何跡象。今年3月,歐洲央行(European Central Bank)表示,工資“在過去兩年里對(duì)通脹的影響有限,利潤的增長明顯比工資的增長更強(qiáng)勁”。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

英國央行(Bank of England)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家公開發(fā)表評(píng)論稱,由于通貨膨脹,英國工人需要“接受”他們因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎浂兊酶毟F了,因此,這位首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家被批評(píng)與現(xiàn)實(shí)脫節(jié)。

休·皮爾在哥倫比亞大學(xué)法學(xué)院(Columbia Law School)的一檔名為“超越史無前例”(Beyond Unprecedented)的播客節(jié)目中表示,目前英國像在玩“擊鼓傳花”的游戲,企業(yè)提高成本,而員工要求加薪,再加上俄烏沖突和天然氣價(jià)格上漲等供應(yīng)方面的壓力,從而誘發(fā)高通脹。

皮爾說:“當(dāng)你每個(gè)月的能源賬單上漲四倍到五倍時(shí),這就會(huì)吞噬你的收入。你會(huì)怎么做呢?你自然會(huì)說:‘我需要加薪。’如果你是一家餐館的老板,你會(huì)怎么做呢?你自然會(huì)說:‘我需要提高餐費(fèi),以抵償煤氣費(fèi)上漲。’當(dāng)然,這個(gè)過程最終會(huì)弄巧成拙。”

他進(jìn)一步表示,普通英國人需要削減開支,接受生活質(zhì)量下降的事實(shí)。

皮爾說:“因此,在英國,人們需要接受他們的處境每況愈下,并停止試圖通過抬高價(jià)格、提高工資或者將能源成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者的方式來維持他們的實(shí)際消費(fèi)能力。”他補(bǔ)充道,“人們不愿意接受這樣的事實(shí):沒錯(cuò),我們所有人的處境每況愈下,我們必須承擔(dān)自己的那份責(zé)任。”

英國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Office of National Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至今年3月,英國目前的同比通脹率為10.1%,扣除能源、食品、酒精和煙草的核心通脹率上升了5.7%。根據(jù)政府的數(shù)據(jù),3月的私人租房價(jià)格同比上漲4.9%,連續(xù)第11個(gè)月“破紀(jì)錄上漲”,而用于家庭取暖和烹飪的天然氣價(jià)格同期上漲了129.4%。

皮爾的言論立即遭到小企業(yè)團(tuán)體和工會(huì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的猛烈抨擊。英國最大的工會(huì)之一GMB工會(huì)的研究和政策主管勞倫斯·特納對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他們“愚蠢而缺乏同情心”,并補(bǔ)充說,英國正在遭受“人們記憶中最嚴(yán)重的生活成本危機(jī)”。

英國央行沒有立即答復(fù)《財(cái)富》雜志的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

堅(jiān)持下去

小企業(yè)團(tuán)體也對(duì)皮爾的言論表示憤怒。

英國小企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)(Federation of Small Businesses)的政策主席蒂娜·麥肯齊告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,皮爾的言論“與小企業(yè)面臨的困境脫節(jié)”。

麥肯齊解釋說:“幾個(gè)月來,小企業(yè)一直承受著高通脹的沖擊,它們別無選擇,只能將能源和投入成本的大幅上漲反映在它們的定價(jià)中——在許多情況下,即使這樣也不足以填補(bǔ)缺口。”

她補(bǔ)充道,許多小企業(yè)“痛苦地”意識(shí)到,它們的客戶無法承受成本上漲的沖擊,它們正在竭盡所能壓低價(jià)格。

她說:“小企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備比大公司少得多,數(shù)百萬小企業(yè)因?yàn)橛馄诟犊疃墒軗p失,進(jìn)一步減少了它們的財(cái)務(wù)回旋余地。英國央行上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率使得許多現(xiàn)有貸款的成本更高,并減少了小企業(yè)和初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的融資選擇。它們中有太多的人只是日復(fù)一日地堅(jiān)持著,無法投資和規(guī)劃未來。”

嚴(yán)厲的愛嗎?

皮爾的言論并不是英國央行第一次對(duì)勞動(dòng)力提出忠告。2022年2月,英國央行的行長安德魯·貝利在接受英國廣播公司廣播四臺(tái)(BBC Radio 4)采訪時(shí)稱,工人應(yīng)該停止要求加薪。

貝利表示:“我并不是說沒有人會(huì)加薪,不要誤解我的意思,但我認(rèn)為,我想表達(dá)的是,我們確實(shí)需要看到人們不再要求加薪。我不想從任何角度美化這一信息。這是痛苦的。但是我們需要看到這樣的情況發(fā)生,以便更快地解決問題。”

貝利的言論在當(dāng)時(shí)不僅激怒了工會(huì),還招致了英國政府的譴責(zé)。首相的發(fā)言人說:“我們承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨挑戰(zhàn)(安德魯·貝利提出的);但顯然,政府無權(quán)設(shè)定工資,也無權(quán)為私營企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略方向或者管理提出建議。”

全球頂級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)各國需要為所謂的工資-價(jià)格螺旋擔(dān)憂到什么程度意見不一。工資-價(jià)格螺旋是指物價(jià)上漲導(dǎo)致工資上漲,而工資上漲又導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)能力增強(qiáng),從而推高物價(jià)。

德國財(cái)政部的部長克里斯蒂安·林德納在今年4月初指出,工資-價(jià)格螺旋式上升的威脅“真實(shí)存在”。

但美國財(cái)政部的部長珍妮特·耶倫在今年早些時(shí)候說,她沒有看到這種趨勢(shì)的任何跡象。今年3月,歐洲央行(European Central Bank)表示,工資“在過去兩年里對(duì)通脹的影響有限,利潤的增長明顯比工資的增長更強(qiáng)勁”。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Bank of England’s chief economist has been blasted as out of touch with reality following public comments he made saying British workers need to “accept” they are poorer because of inflation.

Speaking on Columbia Law School’s “Beyond Unprecedented“?podcast, Huw Pill said high inflation was because of “pass the parcel” behavior between businesses upping their costs, and employees asking for raises, along with supply-side pressures like the war in Ukraine and gas price hikes.

“When your energy bill you get every month goes up four or five times, that’s eating into your income,” Pill said. “What’s the natural thing to do? Well the natural thing to do is say: ‘I need to be paid more.’ What’s the natural thing to do if you’re a restaurant? The natural thing to do is say: ‘I need to raise the prices of my meals in order to compensate the fact my gas bill is higher. But then of course that process is ultimately self-defeating.”

He went on to imply that average Britains needed to cut back on spending, collectively accept a lower quality of life.

“So somehow in the U.K. someone needs to accept that they’re worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices, higher wages or passing the energy costs through to customers,” Pill said. He added there is a “reluctance to accept that yes we’re all worse off and we have to take our share.”

The U.K. is currently suffering?a year-over-year inflation rate of 10.1% as of March, and core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was up 5.7%, according to the Office of National Statistics. Private rental prices in March increased 4.9% year over year, the 11th consecutive month of “record-breaking growth,” according to the government, and gas, which is used in homes for heating and cooking was up 129.4% over the same time period.

Pill’s comments were immediately slammed by small business groups and union leaders. Laurence Turner, the head of research and policy at GMB, one of the largest unions in the U.K., told Fortune they were “crass” adding that the country was suffering from “the worst cost of living crisis in living memory.”

The Bank of England did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Hanging on

Small business groups also voiced their fury with Pill’s outlook.

Tina McKenzie, Policy Chair for the Federation of Small Businesses told Fortune that Pill’s comments “are out of touch with what small firms are up against.”

“Small businesses have been bearing the brunt of high inflation for many months now, with no choice left but to reflect the huge increases they have seen for energy and input costs in their pricing—and in many cases even that is not enough to fill the gap,” McKenzie explained.

She added that droves of small businesses are “painfully” aware their customers can’t bear the brunt of the cost hikes, saying they’re doing all they can to keep prices down.

“Small firms have far less by way of cash reserves than large corporates, and millions of them are hit in the pocket by late payment, further reducing their financial headroom,” she said. “The Bank of England’s base rate hikes have made many existing loans more expensive, and have reduced the funding options available to small firms and start-ups. Far too many of them are only just hanging on day by day, unable to invest and plan for the future.”

Tough love?

Pill’s comments are not the first time the British workforce has been given blunt advice from their central bank. In February 2022, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told BBC Radio 4 that workers should stop demanding pay rises.

“I’m not saying nobody gets a pay rise, don’t get me wrong, but I think, what I’m saying is, we do need to see restraint in pay bargaining,” Bailey said. “That is painful. I don’t want to in any sense sugar that message. It is painful. But we need to see that in order to get through this problem more quickly.”

Bailey’s comments not only incensed unions at the time but earned a rebuke from Number 10 Downing Street. The prime minister’s spokesman said: “We recognise the challenge of the economic picture which Andrew Bailey set out; but obviously it’s not up for government to set wages or advise on the strategic direction or management of private companies.”

Opinion among the globe’s top economists is divided on how worried nations need to be about the so-called wage-price spiral— a the phenomenon of higher prices leading to higher wages, which in turn drives higher prices because of increased spending power.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, said earlier April that threat of a spiral is “very real.”

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said earlier this year that she hadn’t seen any indications of the trend. And in March, the European Central Bank said wages “had only a limited influence on inflation over the past two years and that the increase in profits had been significantly more dynamic than that in wages.”

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