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經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,失業(yè)率上必將升,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入“溫和”衰退

NICHOLAS GORDON
2022-12-08

就算美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,也不會像人們擔(dān)心的那么嚴(yán)重。

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美國銀行首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩?莫伊尼漢指出,美國就業(yè)市場和消費(fèi)者支出依舊強(qiáng)勁,這是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能陷入"溫和"衰退的原因。圖片來源:AL DRAGO—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

美國銀行(Bank of America)首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩?莫伊尼漢(Brian Moynihan)堅(jiān)持他先前的預(yù)測,即就算美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,也不會像人們擔(dān)心的那么嚴(yán)重。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退怎么可能不伴隨失業(yè)率上升呢?”莫伊尼漢周日在哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)的《面對全國》(Face the Nation)節(jié)目中問道,并談到周五美國就業(yè)報(bào)告中新增的26.3萬個(gè)工作崗位。

這位美國銀行首席執(zhí)行官周日表示,他預(yù)計(jì)2023年前三個(gè)季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將“僅收縮1%”,然后恢復(fù)正增長。莫伊尼漢說:“這是一次較為溫和的衰退?!?/p>

莫伊尼漢對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法比一些同行更為樂觀。上周,這位美國銀行的首席執(zhí)行官在美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)上預(yù)測美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入溫和衰退,并打趣道:“颶風(fēng)季節(jié)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。”(莫伊尼漢指的是摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席執(zhí)行官杰米?戴蒙6月的評論,他說美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨一場“颶風(fēng)”。)

6月,美國銀行即將上任的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)主管預(yù)測,到2022年底,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會陷入溫和衰退。但9月份消費(fèi)者支出強(qiáng)勁,美國銀行的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)將經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測推遲到2023年。上個(gè)月,莫伊尼漢在《財(cái)富》首席執(zhí)行官倡議論壇上開玩笑說:“他們一直在往后推?!?/p>

莫伊尼漢對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的看法較為樂觀,與其他悲觀預(yù)測形成鮮明對比。

紐約大學(xué)(New York University)教授魯里埃爾?魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)10月表示,他預(yù)計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入"漫長而危險(xiǎn)的"衰退。魯比尼因?qū)?007年樓市崩盤的預(yù)測而常被稱為"末日博士"。

上周,安聯(lián)集團(tuán)(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問默罕默德?埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)在為英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》撰寫的一篇專欄文章中指出,銀行預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入“短暫而輕微的”衰退。埃爾-埃利安表示,他擔(dān)心他們可能會“重蹈覆轍,就像去年在預(yù)測通脹時(shí)陷入分析和行為陷阱一樣,那么這樣的預(yù)測注定大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)”。

英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》6月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,三分之二的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在明年到來。世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(Conference Board) 10月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,首席執(zhí)行官們也很擔(dān)心,98%的企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都在做準(zhǔn)備,以應(yīng)對未來12-18個(gè)月可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

但在周日,莫伊尼漢為自己更為樂觀的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了辯護(hù),他指出,在美聯(lián)儲加息之際,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。

莫伊尼漢表示:“當(dāng)時(shí)人們認(rèn)為,當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲開始加息時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)會立即受到?jīng)_擊。這一情況并沒有發(fā)生?!?/p>

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期,其他銀行也在重新考慮美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性。高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanely)都在11月預(yù)測,美國可能會僥幸逃脫經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

美國銀行首席執(zhí)行官確實(shí)也指出了一些負(fù)面指標(biāo),如房地產(chǎn)市場疲軟和消費(fèi)者支出放緩。但莫伊尼漢說,這種波動證明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將更可持續(xù)。

莫伊尼漢說,特別是職位空缺和人員流動率的下降,對個(gè)人求職者來說不是好事,但這兩者“實(shí)際上是經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)好的跡象,即經(jīng)濟(jì)向好發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度恢復(fù)正常"。

根據(jù)上周發(fā)表的一份研究報(bào)告,美國銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測,到明年失業(yè)率將上升到5.5%。莫伊尼漢周日表示,人們失去工作是"一件可怕的事情",但美國以前的失業(yè)率也曾這么高。在疫情之前,美國最近一次錄得5.5%的失業(yè)率是在2015年5月。

莫伊尼漢說:“我們當(dāng)時(shí)并沒有覺得事情很糟糕。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

美國銀行(Bank of America)首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩?莫伊尼漢(Brian Moynihan)堅(jiān)持他先前的預(yù)測,即就算美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,也不會像人們擔(dān)心的那么嚴(yán)重。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退怎么可能不伴隨失業(yè)率上升呢?”莫伊尼漢周日在哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)的《面對全國》(Face the Nation)節(jié)目中問道,并談到周五美國就業(yè)報(bào)告中新增的26.3萬個(gè)工作崗位。

這位美國銀行首席執(zhí)行官周日表示,他預(yù)計(jì)2023年前三個(gè)季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將“僅收縮1%”,然后恢復(fù)正增長。莫伊尼漢說:“這是一次較為溫和的衰退。”

莫伊尼漢對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法比一些同行更為樂觀。上周,這位美國銀行的首席執(zhí)行官在美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)上預(yù)測美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入溫和衰退,并打趣道:“颶風(fēng)季節(jié)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。”(莫伊尼漢指的是摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席執(zhí)行官杰米?戴蒙6月的評論,他說美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨一場“颶風(fēng)”。)

6月,美國銀行即將上任的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)主管預(yù)測,到2022年底,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會陷入溫和衰退。但9月份消費(fèi)者支出強(qiáng)勁,美國銀行的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)將經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測推遲到2023年。上個(gè)月,莫伊尼漢在《財(cái)富》首席執(zhí)行官倡議論壇上開玩笑說:“他們一直在往后推?!?/p>

莫伊尼漢對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的看法較為樂觀,與其他悲觀預(yù)測形成鮮明對比。

紐約大學(xué)(New York University)教授魯里埃爾?魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)10月表示,他預(yù)計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入"漫長而危險(xiǎn)的"衰退。魯比尼因?qū)?007年樓市崩盤的預(yù)測而常被稱為"末日博士"。

上周,安聯(lián)集團(tuán)(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問默罕默德?埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)在為英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》撰寫的一篇專欄文章中指出,銀行預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入“短暫而輕微的”衰退。埃爾-埃利安表示,他擔(dān)心他們可能會“重蹈覆轍,就像去年在預(yù)測通脹時(shí)陷入分析和行為陷阱一樣,那么這樣的預(yù)測注定大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)”。

英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》6月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,三分之二的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在明年到來。世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(Conference Board) 10月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,首席執(zhí)行官們也很擔(dān)心,98%的企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都在做準(zhǔn)備,以應(yīng)對未來12-18個(gè)月可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

但在周日,莫伊尼漢為自己更為樂觀的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了辯護(hù),他指出,在美聯(lián)儲加息之際,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。

莫伊尼漢表示:“當(dāng)時(shí)人們認(rèn)為,當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲開始加息時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)會立即受到?jīng)_擊。這一情況并沒有發(fā)生?!?/p>

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期,其他銀行也在重新考慮美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性。高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanely)都在11月預(yù)測,美國可能會僥幸逃脫經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

美國銀行首席執(zhí)行官確實(shí)也指出了一些負(fù)面指標(biāo),如房地產(chǎn)市場疲軟和消費(fèi)者支出放緩。但莫伊尼漢說,這種波動證明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將更可持續(xù)。

莫伊尼漢說,特別是職位空缺和人員流動率的下降,對個(gè)人求職者來說不是好事,但這兩者“實(shí)際上是經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)好的跡象,即經(jīng)濟(jì)向好發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度恢復(fù)正常"。

根據(jù)上周發(fā)表的一份研究報(bào)告,美國銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測,到明年失業(yè)率將上升到5.5%。莫伊尼漢周日表示,人們失去工作是"一件可怕的事情",但美國以前的失業(yè)率也曾這么高。在疫情之前,美國最近一次錄得5.5%的失業(yè)率是在2015年5月。

莫伊尼漢說:“我們當(dāng)時(shí)并沒有覺得事情很糟糕?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is sticking to his earlier predictions that a U.S. recession, if it comes, won’t be as bad as people fear.

“How could you have an unemployment-less recession?” Moynihan asked on CBS News’s Face the Nation program on Sunday, citing the 263,000 new jobs reported in the U.S. jobs report on Friday.

The Bank of America CEO on Sunday said he expects the U.S. economy to contract by “just 1%” for the first three quarters of 2023, then return to positive growth. “This is a more mild recession,” Moynihan said.

Moynihan has been more optimistic about the U.S. economy than some of his peers. Last week, the Bank of America CEO predicted a mild downturn on CNN, quipping “hurricane season is now closed.” (Moynihan was referring to a June comment from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon that the U.S. economy was facing a “hurricane”)

In June, Bank of America’s incoming head of U.S. economics forecast that the U.S. might see a mild recession by the end of 2022. But strong consumer spending in September led Bank of America’s research team to move their recession forecast to 2023. “They keep pushing it out,” Moynihan joked last month at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference.

Moynihan’s more upbeat take on the U.S.’s economic future contrasts sharply to other dire forecasts.

In October, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor often dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his predictions about the 2007 housing crash, said he expects the U.S. to face a “l(fā)ong and ugly” recession.

Last week, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz, called out banks predicting a “short and shallow” recession in an op-ed for the Financial Times. El-Erian says he worries that they risk “a repeat of the analytical and behavioral traps that featured in last year’s ill-fated inflation call.”

A June survey from the Financial Times reported that two-thirds of U.S. economists believed a recession would hit next year. CEOs are also worried, with 98% of corporate leaders preparing for a recession over the next 12-18 months, according to an October survey from the Conference Board.

Yet on Sunday, Moynihan defended his more optimistic view by pointing to the U.S.’s strong performance amid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

“The belief was when the Fed started raising rates that there would be an immediate snap to the economy,” Moynihan said. “That didn’t happen.”

Other banks are also reconsidering the possibility of a U.S. recession, thanks to better-than-expected economic data. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanely forecast in November that the U.S. may narrowly escape a recession altogether.

The Bank of America CEO did point to some negative indicators, like a weakening housing market and slowing consumer spending. But Moynihan says the wobbles prove the U.S. economy is becoming more sustainable.

Declining job openings and turnover, in particular, are not good for individual jobseekers, Moynihan says, but they are “actually good signs for the economy in terms of it starting to get into a better situation that it can grow at a more normalized rate.”

Bank of America economists predict that unemployment will increase to 5.5% by next year, according a research note published last week. People losing their jobs is “a horrible thing to contemplate,” Moynihan said on Sunday, but the U.S. has experienced that rate of joblessness before. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. most recently recorded a 5.5% unemployment rate in May 2015.

“We didn’t feel horrible then,” Moynihan said.

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