受美元匯率飆升影響,在許多已經面臨歷史性全球糧食危機的國家,糧價進一步走高,從亞洲到非洲,糧食進口商都在爭先恐后地尋找美元以便支付糧食進口費用。
在加納,當地進口商警告說,圣誕節前糧食將出現短缺;在巴基斯坦,數千個滿載糧食的集裝箱堆滿了各大港口;在埃及,因小麥滯留海關,面粉廠存貨耗盡,私人面包師已經提高面包價格。
縱觀全球,那些依賴糧食進口的國家都在努力拆解由高利率、美元飆升和大宗商品價格上漲“打來”的組合拳,在購買那些通常以美元定價的商品時,此類國家的支付能力已經受到影響。在許多情況下,外匯儲備不斷減少讓美元變得越發稀缺、難以獲得,銀行的放款速度也略顯遲緩。
農業巨頭嘉吉公司(Cargill Inc.)的全球貿易主管亞歷克斯·桑費利烏說:"糧食已經成了他們負擔不起的奢侈品,同樣的故事正在全球許多地方上演。"
對其中許多國家而言,相關問題并非最近才出現,也非僅限于農產品領域,只是在俄烏戰爭爆發之后,購買力下降加之美元短缺導致全球糧食系統承受了更大壓力。
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱,本輪糧食危機的嚴重程度至少將達到2007至2008年的水平。美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫呼吁各方向最脆弱群體提供更多糧食援助。而世界糧食計劃署(World Food Programme)則表示,世界正面臨現代史上最大糧食危機。
成本上升、資本縮水加上難以獲得確保海關按時放行所需的美元,許多進口商已是疲于應對。這種情況如果持續,則意味著貨物將會滯留在港口,甚至可能會轉運他處。
專門研究非洲和大宗商品市場的咨詢師泰德·喬治說:“支付此類款項歷來都有壓力,只是現在已經變成了不可承受之重。”
今年以來,加納塞地對美元匯率已下跌約44%,成為全球表現第二差的貨幣,有人擔心,該國圣誕節前的商品供應或會出現問題。
加納進出口商協會執行秘書薩姆森·阿薩基·阿溫格比特說:“我們認為,部分食品將會出現短缺。美元蠶食著塞地的幣值,而我們對此完全無能為力。”
可以肯定的是,一些國家可以通過使用歐元等貨幣購買所需商品獲得一定緩沖,能源出口國也能從海外收入中獲益。 全球糧食商品成本已連續六個月下降,給消費者帶來了緩解壓力的希望。
但聯合國糧食及農業組織(United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization)的經濟學家莫妮卡·托托娃表示,美元飆升或將蠶食上述部分利好,該組織認為,今年全球糧食進口支出將達到歷史最高水平。
當前糧食安全形勢依然頗為嚴峻。隨著俄烏戰事升級,各方對黑海地區糧食供應的擔憂再度加劇,此外,有關從烏克蘭港口運出谷物的協議未來能否得到執行也存在疑問。最近幾個月,受異常天氣影響,糧食價格波動加劇,糧食庫存處于較低水平,化肥、能源價格飆升推高了糧食生產成本。
國際貨幣基金組織在本周的全球展望中表示,隨著美聯儲繼續收緊貨幣政策,美元相對新興市場和發展中國家貨幣的強勢將進一步推高通貨膨脹和債務壓力。
巴基斯坦谷物協會(Cereal Association of Pakistan)主席穆扎米勒·拉烏夫·查帕爾稱,在洪水肆虐的巴基斯坦,為防止外匯外流,政府采取了一系列措施,導致裝滿糧食(如鷹嘴豆及其他豆類)的集裝箱上個月堆滿了各大港口,推動糧食價格大幅走高。
在該國任命了新的財政部長后,情況有所緩解,該部長承諾為因銀行間市場美元短缺而遲遲未清算的企業清算未決交易。
查帕爾(其領導的公司是該國最大的私營小麥進口商)說:“情況相當危險,我們認為,巴基斯坦將迎來一場嚴重的糧食危機。”
在全球最大的小麥進口國之一——埃及,小麥短缺問題一直困擾私營面粉工廠,其供貨的面包房不在該國補貼計劃的覆蓋范圍之內。
據該國谷物工業協會(Chamber of Cereal Industry)稱,自上月初以來,約有70萬噸谷物滯留在該國港口,受此影響,該國約80%的磨坊已經因“無麥可磨”關門歇業。埃及供應部門10月12日表示,將向私營磨坊和私營面食廠提供小麥和面粉。
據桑費利烏(供職于嘉吉公司)預計,未來數月,由于發展中國家難以支付糧食與飼料費用,全球小麥貿易量將縮減6%,玉米和豆粕貿易量將縮減3%。
梅格納工業集團(Meghna Group of Industries,一家孟加拉國商業集團)采購負責人塔斯里姆·沙里亞爾表示,受美元走強影響,小麥進口成本至少將飆升20%,受此影響,該集團或將不得不縮減其在戰爭爆發前制定的小麥進口計劃。
沙里亞爾說:“匯率波動給公司帶來了巨大損失,我們以前從未見過這種情況。”(財富中文網)
-本文在撰寫過程中得到了阿倫·德夫納特(Arun Devnath)、阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫·瓦巴(Abdel Latif Wahba)、阿桑塔·西里曼納(Asantha Sirimanne)、塔索·維羅索·里貝羅(Tarso Veloso Ribeiro)、蘇海爾·卡拉姆(Souhail Karam)、卡塔琳娜·海耶(Katarina Hoije)、阿瑪·塔諾(Ama Tanoh)和埃迪·斯彭斯(Eddie Spence)的幫助。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
受美元匯率飆升影響,在許多已經面臨歷史性全球糧食危機的國家,糧價進一步走高,從亞洲到非洲,糧食進口商都在爭先恐后地尋找美元以便支付糧食進口費用。
在加納,當地進口商警告說,圣誕節前糧食將出現短缺;在巴基斯坦,數千個滿載糧食的集裝箱堆滿了各大港口;在埃及,因小麥滯留海關,面粉廠存貨耗盡,私人面包師已經提高面包價格。
縱觀全球,那些依賴糧食進口的國家都在努力拆解由高利率、美元飆升和大宗商品價格上漲“打來”的組合拳,在購買那些通常以美元定價的商品時,此類國家的支付能力已經受到影響。在許多情況下,外匯儲備不斷減少讓美元變得越發稀缺、難以獲得,銀行的放款速度也略顯遲緩。
農業巨頭嘉吉公司(Cargill Inc.)的全球貿易主管亞歷克斯·桑費利烏說:"糧食已經成了他們負擔不起的奢侈品,同樣的故事正在全球許多地方上演。"
對其中許多國家而言,相關問題并非最近才出現,也非僅限于農產品領域,只是在俄烏戰爭爆發之后,購買力下降加之美元短缺導致全球糧食系統承受了更大壓力。
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱,本輪糧食危機的嚴重程度至少將達到2007至2008年的水平。美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫呼吁各方向最脆弱群體提供更多糧食援助。而世界糧食計劃署(World Food Programme)則表示,世界正面臨現代史上最大糧食危機。
成本上升、資本縮水加上難以獲得確保海關按時放行所需的美元,許多進口商已是疲于應對。這種情況如果持續,則意味著貨物將會滯留在港口,甚至可能會轉運他處。
專門研究非洲和大宗商品市場的咨詢師泰德·喬治說:“支付此類款項歷來都有壓力,只是現在已經變成了不可承受之重。”
今年以來,加納塞地對美元匯率已下跌約44%,成為全球表現第二差的貨幣,有人擔心,該國圣誕節前的商品供應或會出現問題。
加納進出口商協會執行秘書薩姆森·阿薩基·阿溫格比特說:“我們認為,部分食品將會出現短缺。美元蠶食著塞地的幣值,而我們對此完全無能為力。”
可以肯定的是,一些國家可以通過使用歐元等貨幣購買所需商品獲得一定緩沖,能源出口國也能從海外收入中獲益。 全球糧食商品成本已連續六個月下降,給消費者帶來了緩解壓力的希望。
但聯合國糧食及農業組織(United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization)的經濟學家莫妮卡·托托娃表示,美元飆升或將蠶食上述部分利好,該組織認為,今年全球糧食進口支出將達到歷史最高水平。
當前糧食安全形勢依然頗為嚴峻。隨著俄烏戰事升級,各方對黑海地區糧食供應的擔憂再度加劇,此外,有關從烏克蘭港口運出谷物的協議未來能否得到執行也存在疑問。最近幾個月,受異常天氣影響,糧食價格波動加劇,糧食庫存處于較低水平,化肥、能源價格飆升推高了糧食生產成本。
國際貨幣基金組織在本周的全球展望中表示,隨著美聯儲繼續收緊貨幣政策,美元相對新興市場和發展中國家貨幣的強勢將進一步推高通貨膨脹和債務壓力。
巴基斯坦谷物協會(Cereal Association of Pakistan)主席穆扎米勒·拉烏夫·查帕爾稱,在洪水肆虐的巴基斯坦,為防止外匯外流,政府采取了一系列措施,導致裝滿糧食(如鷹嘴豆及其他豆類)的集裝箱上個月堆滿了各大港口,推動糧食價格大幅走高。
在該國任命了新的財政部長后,情況有所緩解,該部長承諾為因銀行間市場美元短缺而遲遲未清算的企業清算未決交易。
查帕爾(其領導的公司是該國最大的私營小麥進口商)說:“情況相當危險,我們認為,巴基斯坦將迎來一場嚴重的糧食危機。”
在全球最大的小麥進口國之一——埃及,小麥短缺問題一直困擾私營面粉工廠,其供貨的面包房不在該國補貼計劃的覆蓋范圍之內。
據該國谷物工業協會(Chamber of Cereal Industry)稱,自上月初以來,約有70萬噸谷物滯留在該國港口,受此影響,該國約80%的磨坊已經因“無麥可磨”關門歇業。埃及供應部門10月12日表示,將向私營磨坊和私營面食廠提供小麥和面粉。
據桑費利烏(供職于嘉吉公司)預計,未來數月,由于發展中國家難以支付糧食與飼料費用,全球小麥貿易量將縮減6%,玉米和豆粕貿易量將縮減3%。
梅格納工業集團(Meghna Group of Industries,一家孟加拉國商業集團)采購負責人塔斯里姆·沙里亞爾表示,受美元走強影響,小麥進口成本至少將飆升20%,受此影響,該集團或將不得不縮減其在戰爭爆發前制定的小麥進口計劃。
沙里亞爾說:“匯率波動給公司帶來了巨大損失,我們以前從未見過這種情況。”(財富中文網)
-本文在撰寫過程中得到了阿倫·德夫納特(Arun Devnath)、阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫·瓦巴(Abdel Latif Wahba)、阿桑塔·西里曼納(Asantha Sirimanne)、塔索·維羅索·里貝羅(Tarso Veloso Ribeiro)、蘇海爾·卡拉姆(Souhail Karam)、卡塔琳娜·海耶(Katarina Hoije)、阿瑪·塔諾(Ama Tanoh)和埃迪·斯彭斯(Eddie Spence)的幫助。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
Food importers from Africa to Asia are scrambling for dollars to pay their bills as a surge in the US currency drives prices even higher for countries already facing a historic global food crisis.
In Ghana, importers are warning about shortages in the run up to Christmas. Thousands of containers loaded with food recently piled up at ports in Pakistan, while private bakers in Egypt raised bread prices after some flour mills ran out of wheat because it was stranded at customs.
Around the world, countries that rely on food imports are grappling with a destructive combination of high interest rates, a soaring dollar and elevated commodity prices, eroding their power to pay for goods that are typically priced in the greenback. Dwindling foreign-currency reserves in many cases has reduced access to dollars, and banks are slow in releasing payments.
“They cannot afford it, they cannot pay for these commodities,” said Alex Sanfeliu, world trading head for crop giant Cargill Inc. “It’s happening in many parts of the world.”
The problem isn’t a new one for many of the countries — nor is it limited to agricultural commodities — but the reduced purchasing power and dollar shortages are compounding wider strains across global food systems following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a catastrophe?at least as severe as the food emergency in 2007-08, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for more food aid for the most vulnerable, while the World Food Programme says the globe is facing its largest food crisis in modern history.
On the ground, many importers are struggling with rising costs, shrinking capital and difficulty in obtaining dollars to ensure their shipments are released from customs on time. That means cargoes get stuck at ports or may even be diverted to other destinations.
“There was always a historical strain on making these payments, but at the moment it’s unbearable pressure,” said Tedd George, a consultant specializing in Africa and commodities markets.
In Ghana, where the cedi has lost about 44% this year against the dollar — making it the second-worst-performing currency in the world — there are already worries about supplies ahead of Christmas.
“We think there is going to be a shortage of some food items,” said Samson Asaki Awingobit, executive secretary of Ghana’s importers and exporters association which includes buyers of grains, flour and rice. “The dollar is swallowing our cedi and we are in a hopeless situation.”
To be sure, some countries may be cushioned by their purchases in other currencies like euros, while energy-exporting nations will profit from overseas revenues. Global food-commodity costs have also fallen for six straight months, giving hopes for a relief to consumers.
But the soaring dollar threatens to erode some of that benefit, according to Monika Tothova, an economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, which sees this year’s global food import bill at a record high.
The situation is still fragile. Concerns are mounting anew over supplies out of the Black Sea region as the war in Ukraine escalates and there are questions over the future of the deal to ship grains out of Ukrainian ports. Weather shocks have driven volatility in recent months, stocks are low and soaring fertilizer and energy prices are boosting food production costs.
As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, the dollar’s strength versus currencies in emerging and developing markets will add to inflation and debt pressures, the IMF said in its global outlook this week.
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, government moves to prevent foreign-exchange outflows meant that containers holding food like chickpeas and other pulses piled up at ports last month, sending prices surging, according to Muzzammil Rauf Chappal, the chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan.
The situation eased after the appointment of new finance minister who pledged to clear pending transactions for businesses that have been delayed because of a dollar shortage in its interbank market.
“The situation was quite dangerous,” said Chappal, whose company is the country’s biggest private sector wheat importer. “We were expecting the country to face a serious grain crisis.”
In Egypt, one of the world’s top wheat importers, shortages have plagued private sector mills that supply flour for bread that isn’t part of the country’s subsidy program.
About 80% of millers have run out of wheat and stopped operations as some 700,000 tons of grain remain stuck at the country’s ports since the start of last month, according to the Chamber of Cereal Industry. The supply ministry said Wednesday it would provide wheat and flour to private sector mills and pasta factories.
Cargill’s Sanfeliu said he expects global wheat trade flow to shrink by as much as 6% in the upcoming months, with corn and soybean meal flows dropping by as much as 3%, as developing countries struggle to pay for food and animal feed.
In Bangladesh, business conglomerate Meghna Group of Industries may have to cut the amount of wheat it had planned to import before the war broke out amid at least a 20% jump in wheat import costs due to the stronger dollar, said Taslim Shahriar, the company’s procurement official.
“Currency fluctuations are creating huge losses for the company,” said Shahriar. “We have never seen this before.”
–With assistance from Arun Devnath, Abdel Latif Wahba, Asantha Sirimanne, Tarso Veloso Ribeiro, Souhail Karam, Katarina Hoije, Ama Tanoh and Eddie Spence.